U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
Hello, big Boyz! The Dollar reacted very nicely from the demand zone it’s sitting on, yet the dollar was sold against most of the currencies, but EUR and CHF. This is clear when we look to the synthetic dollar index, but players’ exposure its decreasing, and week after week cot report comes with smaller open interest numbers. This is true for all dollar data we have
- synthetic weighted.
If we check what the dollar did in the past year of the USA presidential election we can also expect the price to consolidate at these levels and start a massive trend at the end of September. The data supports me to maintain my current view, maybe we see more sideways for the next sessions but I am not selling the dollar, rather I will take spike opportunities to enter long and make quick profits. When the breakout occurs will be easy to identify, and when it happens don’t be a moron waiting for a “better place to buy”, “A pullback to enter”, just buy and enjoy being right at least one time in your life, and then stop being cheap and buy a pro trader subscription.
Dollar MonthLy Chart
U.S DOLLAR INDEX – ICE FUTURES U.S.
eurusd – EURO DOLLAR
EURUSD is THE MOST interesting currency to analyze right now. It’s doing a textbook example of top formation. I will copy what is in the book, you just need to replace NASDAQ for EURUSD.
Add to the above the fact that commercials did not cut their exposure to EUR. The move I am waiting for the downside will be explosive and massive.
Interesting is how other metrics are converging to a top formation in EURUSD.
2016 Price seasonality
COT Data Half-Life
gbpusd – POUND DOLLAR
What was a simple profit-taking movement and maybe protection against a peak in volatility given the restart in Brexit talks, now it looks a well established bullish trend. It’s the 6th bullish week, from net position POV, also a big increase in Non-commercials open interests.
What will rule here is commercials’ participation( not just here). If we look at percentual commercials almost doubled their net short positions. I will be buying GBPUSD supply zone breakouts and visits to demand zones with 1.40 in mind!
nzdusd – NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR
Despite the increase in net positions, I think its too early to announce the start of a new trend. We first need to see open interest increasing. Even with the net position being more bullish, I prefer to bet to the short side, as more bullish positions with no increase in open interest mean nothing, also there’s a strong negative correlation between NZDUSD vs USDCNH, and as we just saw above USD is about to make a move to the upside. I still have a bearish view of NZDUSD.
AUDUSD – AUSSIE DOLLAR
The Australian Dollar is ready for another move up. Different from his brother NZD, is notorious the increase in open interest, more increase in commercials short position without having a selling climax. We can expect a fast touch at 0.76700, but don’t get too excited, because if history has something to tell us is it will be a fast touch and price will fall fast from there. That push will be more than enough to create the commercial selling climax I was talking about.
usdcad | usdchf | usdjpy
I am holding the same view for these assets as no relevant change occurs in their data.