EURUSD - BULLISH POWER
EURUSD continues to prevail and as we discussed in last week’s video big specs continue to add to their longs. This trend should continue until they reach 143K contracts NET long. It’s a 27% increase. The last time we had a similar increase, not in percentual, but in the number of contracts was from May 12 to July 14 and EURUSD and made price rose more than 6% (660.3 pip).
It’s hard to imagine EURUSD back above 1.2, but you should know that this is completely on the cards. We are inside a big supply zone and if the price manages to go above with the next objective becomes 1.18086.
EURUSD COT Charts: Super Bullish
EURUSD: LAST SIMILAR MOVE
What I am expecting
AUDUSD - bullish trend at infancy?
Finally, big speculators made their move, looks a bit shy to me, but it’s already something. They are now on the bullish side of the game, I think next week will give the tone for us to follow, but we have more two elements to reinforce the bullish view:
- U.S Dollar Weakness
- Historical volatility is positive for July
- COT Data Turning bullish
U.S. Dollar Weakness
AUDUSD COT CHARTS
What I am expecting
Going to the same date in the past when big specs build that amazing long position from the previous chart, we are going to discover that in +- 3 months AUDUSD went up 540 pips, and in the same period of the year. Another interesting observation is the fact that fundamentals for 2020 are suggesting an even stronger upside.
If this analysis is correct we will see the breakout of the stubborn supply zone that sits around 0.6750-0.70318. This leaves 0.76548 exposed and should be reached in the next 3 months.
GBPUSD - STRETCHING THE ROPE
The bullish momentum is getting stronger and stronger. The Short position remains the same, but longs were added AGAIN, bulls are putting an expressive pressure on bears. The expected high for July was touched in the past week, so some kind of pullback was expected. If our analysis is correct and will see 1.281 level taken and the move to 1.30798 will be a really fast and strong impulse. In a truly and massive short squeeze.
NZDUSD - NO MAN'S LAND
There is absolutely no new development for NZDUSD that worth commenting on. I am leaving cot charts and positioning for your appreciation.
USDCAD - RANGE-BOUND
USDCAD saw an increase in its net long positions, but if you don’t look at it closely you will be deceived. Both longs and shorts were closed and the open interest decreased. The meaning of this is the lack of interest of market participants to trade the currency. There is not that I can add in such a scenario. I am leaving charts and positioning spreadsheet for your appreciation.
USDCHF - BEAR PRESSURE
As a consequence of a weaker dollar and the rising interest in the lower-risk assets, investors keep piling into CHF longs. While the long USDCHF position remains the same the short were increased by 29%. The net position is now -7121 contracts, putting even more pressure in USDCHF prices.
We have not reached expected low for July: 0.9191
USDJPY - SELLERS SHOWING POWER
Using similar reasoning for USDCHF, investors keep seeking safe-haven assets, and with GOLD among the most crowded trades, buying JPY is one option.
Longs were closed and shorts added. USDJPY has an expected lower for July of 105.47, if this trend continues to mount we should see very soon.
That’s it my friends! I hope this can add value to you in some way. If you have any kind of doubts or questions please comment here, I am looking forward to replying to you.
“Hey Leo wait, I want to see your analysis for more pairs”
Very well my friend, join me in my chatroom.
Have a great weekend you all!
My best regards,
Leo Hermoso
