Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture April 01, 2021



The producer survey revealed lower than expected corn and soybean plantings while this year’s US winter wheat seeding were revised up 1.09 million acres from January’s initial Ag Dept. Corn’s 91.14 million 2021 survey level was 2.06 million below expectations, but only 327,000 higher than last year. Both, US soybeans and wheat (WEAT) quarterly stocks were modest higher than trade expectation, but corn’s March 1 stocks were lower than expected. stocks was modestly below expectations, but this stock level implies corn’s feed demand rose 110 million bu.
Imports of Indian sugar would have helped Pakistan consumers to get sugar at a price lower than Pakistani ₹65. Overall, the reduced corn (CORN) and soybean (SOYB) planting levels prompted an immediate price jump. Recent Chinese buying will likely tighten corn’s stocks by 200 million in April’s balance sheet. Similarly, Indian cotton exporters could have met the demand for at least 10 lakh bales that Pakistan was looking for to make its domestic industry export value-added textile goods.
At 360 million tonnes, the US represents a third of the global corn output. Cotton prices in New York are ruling at 80.86 cents a pound (₹46,900 for a candy of 356 kg) compared with India’s export benchmark Shankar-6 price of ₹45,000-45,300.


less The rise in the US 10 yr has pulled up the US dollar, but soon the trillions of new money printing will soon pressure the dollar south. As the euro continues to strengthen against the pound, the key pair with the dollar is expected to recover to 1.1762, or to 1.1810 under an optimistic scenario. We can see below the dollar ‘T Theory’ cycle suggesting we near done, and a period of change is due in the next 4 to 6 months. Two critical data points are eyed on Thursday, and they may push the dollar higher.
Gold prices rose as yields eased and the dollar slipped. Gold prices rose as yields eased and the U.S. dollar slipped. The dollar is mostly firmer, but the euro held the $1.1700 support. The negative sentiment around the US rates makes the aussie dollar more attractive as an alternative higher-yielding asset. In an entirely unique situation, every dollar the bank takes in via the IPO process adds value for the buyer. The consequences for the #dollar will be profound As you can see their forecast is for a new 20-year low in the TWI.


less Gold is in a downtrend but we can see that the double bottom formation has formed and we could see a move to the upside. less Last year we saw gold, silver, and mining stocks soar into August after the Spring stock market crash. The renewed buying interest in oil and gold prices also offer support to the commodities-linked aussie. This potential double bottom for gold also is happening after the RSI crossed below 30, to give an extreme oversold reading.
Gold miners are flush with cash after prices rose, fueled by investors seeking safe-haven status amid the pandemic. Forecasts of a rapid global economic expansion this year, powered by vaccinations and U.S. stimulus, have tarnished gold’s allure as a haven in uncertain times. My favorite indicator for the gold trend is actually the GDX/GLD relative strength as it tends to be a leading indicator for both. We also advise investors to have a well-diversified portfolio with the right mix of equity, debt, gold and other asset classes.
Gold futures on Wednesday closed their worst quarter since 2016, falling 9.5% to $1,713.80 a troy ounce. S&P 500 futures pointed to plenty of green at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.718% and gold was higher.


Brilliant Cartel OPEC and its allies are holding talks today on whether to prolong the vast production curbs that have been in place to support the oil price. OPEC+ meanwhile lowering its 2021 oil demand growth forecast by 300,000 bpd, prior to a meeting on Thursday meant to decide on output policy, similarly weighed on prices. Oil climbed above $60 per barrel before a meeting of OPEC+ on extending production cuts. India is the world’s largest importer of vegetable oil with about 13 million tonnes of annual import valued at $10 billion.The author is a policy commentator and agri-business specialist.
Earlier this month, Inter Pipeline had asked shareholders to reject Brookfield’s hostile bid, saying the offer “significantly undervalues” the Canadian oil and gas transportation company.
However, oil is a traditional driver of inflation expectations, and until last month, an under-appreciated driver of higher yields. Oil rise on hopes that OPEC and its allies will keep production curbs in place when they meet. Oil Sector Gets Surprise Boost in Biden Plan (It s the Asphalt) The president plans to set off one more oil-sector boom before shadows descend on fossil fuels.
It offers cannabis oil, capsules, tinctures, and cannabis product edibles under the Roll One, Modern Flower, Alchemy, and CBX Sciences brands, among others. Oil prices freaked out after the OPEC Plus panel ended without a policy decision.

United States

US stock futures are trading higher today indicating a positive opening for Wall Street indices with Dow Futures trading up by 27 points (up 0.1%). Nasdaq futures rose as much as 1.1%, as “high flying” FAAMG stocks added between 0.6% and 1.1% after underperforming last month on concerns over elevated valuations. Europe’s Down Jones Stoxx 600 is edging closer to last year’s record high, and US futures are trading with a clear upside bias, led by the Nasdaq.
less The Nasdaq 100 has rallied significantly during the trading session on Wednesday to break above the 50 day EMA, ending the first quarter on a strong note. Against this background, investors’ expectations for the growth of the US economy are significantly higher. Benchmark 10-year yields have risen sharply in the quarter, and perhaps, counterintuitively, the roughly 80 bp rise in the US 10-year was not the most among the developed countries. While higher rates for corporates may weigh on Wall Street, it means less debt issuance, which is positive for bonds.
With Governors of many states pushing for federal decriminalization of marijuana, Wall Street analysts believe these two cannabis stocks will gain significantly in the near term. That being said, the Nasdaq 100 still has significant resistance above that traders around the world will have to pay attention to, especially near the 13,333 level. Between the US stimulus at the end of 2020 and the new package approved last month, the US is committed almost 14% of GDP to the efforts.


Last year, BNEF expected the industrial and power sectors covered by the EU carbon market to reduce their emissions by 50% by 2030. It now expects the sectors covered by the EU carbon market to reduce their emissions by 63% in the same period. Coronavirus cases continue rising in the old continent and the threat of overwhelming France’s health system caused President Emmanuel Macron to impose a monthlong lockdown. The news lifted the pound.To boost London s attractiveness, the Financial Conduct Authority, the U.K s market watchdog, said it will consult on changes to listing rules.
David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. That means that the average carbon intensity of the remaining EU power generators is higher. Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2020 Update David J. Merkel, CFA — 2010-present, I run my own equity asset management shop, called Aleph Investments. Lizzy BurdenAs ever, if Brexit is affecting your business in a way we haven t reported, please get in touch.
By now, I have built up excellent skills and experience in analyzing macroeconomic and political developments in Europe, the Eurozone and Germany, including ECB watching.
A report on structural racism in the U.K., commissioned by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, was released on Wednesday.