Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture April 07, 2021

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Agriculture

That is almost 15 per cent higher than the MSP,” said Cotton Association of India President Atul Ganatra. In contrast, cotton in New York is ruling at 79.90 cents a pound (₹47,050 a candy). Over two decades ago Jay got his start at the Kansas City Board of Trade in the Wheat Futures pit. Today, it’s the cost of a small McDonald’s coffee.

Currencies

It was the third consecutive month that the dollar value of its reserves fell, and the nearly $35 bln declines were the most since last March’s $46.1 bln drops. A modest uptick in US bond yields has seen the US Dollar find renewed support, which is causing XAU/USD to undo some of yesterday’s gains. Since the global financial crisis, overseas bond issuance is a story of two currency blocs—the dollar and everything else. Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action.
Bond yields will be key to the pricing dynamics of the US Dollar and therefore are likely to offer some trading momentum for XAU/USD. The euro is testing the 200-day moving average (~$1.1890) since breaking below it last month for the first time since May 2020. Hopes of swift economic recovery pulled gold prices lower, while the dollar was little changed. Yesterday, the bullion reached its highest pricing level since March 25 as both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields fell.
While these developments boosted the euro, the dollar suffered from falling safe-haven flows. A mild uptick in US bond yields is supporting the US Dollar and capping EUR/USD upside.

Metals

The Gold Analyst offers quality technical and fundamental analysis of the price of gold to help educate readers in their investment decisions. less Gold prices fell anew today after climbing to $1,745 per ounce in the previous session. After hitting a two week high in the previous session, Gold edged lower during the Asian trade and currently sits at the lower end of its daily traded range. Note that gold prices in India have rebounded from one-year low levels of Rs 44,100 hit last week, helped by a rebound in global rates and coronavirus concerns.
Even with the recent volatility in prices, gold remains among the best-performing commodities this year to combat the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Gold prices are trading up 0.6% at Rs 46,202 per 10 grams. In the previous session, gold had jumped Rs 600 or 1.3% per 10 grams. Gold prices edged lower in Indian markets, a day after clocking sharp gains. less Gold prices have stalled in the Asian session after a strong performance to begin the month of April.
Spot gold is currently trading at $1,737.82 per ounce as of 0832 GMT.

Oil

The API reported that crude oil supply fell by 2.618 million barrels yet a shocking 4.553-million-barrel increase in gasoline supply had traders scratching their heads. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg Oil fluctuated near $63 a barrel in London as traders awaited weekly U.S. inventory data for the latest steer on the demand recovery. Daily Market Update identifies accurate price targets and turning points for indices, forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, oil, gas, and stocks.
Occidental Petroleum Corp: Chief Executive Vicki Hollub said she opposes a carbon tax, an idea that has gained the backing of large rival oil companies and some trade groups. May WTI remains inside the range set on Monday (~$57.65-$61.50), and it could be the first day since February 12 that remains below $60 (OIL). Since the break of the sharp oil uptrend, prices have whipsawed driven by headlines and fear. The risk of more of an escalation could prove to be an increasing risk factor for the global oil supply.
For media inquiries, call 202-452-2955 Oil traders both bullish and bearish have been bounced around in recent days like they are locked in a rubber room.
The U.S. trade balance for February is at 8:30 a.m. with crude oil inventories at 10:30 a.m. President Biden speaks about his infrastructure plan at 1:45 p.m. But the oil complex remained weighed on signs of rising supply after OPEC and its allies agreed to gradually ease output cuts from May.

United States

Nasdaq Futures are trading up 20 points (up 0.2%) while Dow Futures are trading up 22 points (up 0.1%) The rupee is trading at Rs 74.16 against the US$. As of late February, investors had borrowed a record $814 billion against their portfolios, according to data from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Wall Street’s self-regulatory arm. Firmer growth expectations for the US and the global economy are also highlighted in this week’s revised forecasts from The International Monetary Fund.
Make no mistake that the market will put pressure on the Fed as long as the bond market remains in pain. Biden’s spending plan and improving economic data are cementing this upbeat economic outlook in the US, which is putting further pressure on the commodity’s safe-haven appeal. Declining bond prices mean higher yields, and if the trend continues in the second half of the year, the Fed will break. The US 10-year yield slipped below the 20-day moving average (~1.65%) for the first time since early February to trade at an eight-day low.
Survey-based data also reflect a firmer outlook for the US economy. Interestingly, the US trade balance for petroleum products fell back into deficit in February after being in surplus (a net exporter) since Feb 2020… “It’s a lot of money, and it’s bound to cause a booming economy,” he said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

China

WSJ explains how Beijing is pouring money into high-tech chips as it wants to become self-sufficient.

Europe

Firstly, Ms Schnabel tells us that the ECB accepts higher longer-term nominal rates if driven by higher inflation expectations and thus leave longer-term real rates unchanged. Bottom line: rates may rise for the right reasons, but the ECB will step up PEPP purchases to prevent rates from rising for the wrong reasons. Recent research 24 Mar: EUR rates: TLTROs and Euribors 17 Mar: EUR rates: ECB afterthoughts 10 Mar: EUR rates: What do you say when words are not enough?
USD and EUR, nominal and real, ytd bp change Secondly, she says that the ECB even accepts higher longer-term real rates under the right conditions. Buying a 3y1y seagull utilises the rolldown in rates as well as on the vol curve to give decent carry with limited downside unless markets start pricing ECB hikes. The EUR/USD hit a two week high in the previous session on news that the EU could reach its vaccine target sooner than initially expected. This part adds even more flexibility to the ECB’s reaction function since equilibrium rates are unobservable.
Photographer: Michaela Handrek-Rehle/Bloomberg Photographer: Michaela Handrek-Rehle/Bloomberg A leading member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives cast doubt on a plan to impose strict restrictions to contain Germany’s coronavirus outbreak. The EU has upgraded its projections for getting its population inoculated amid promising supply estimates. His feature articles have been published on: FXstreet.com, Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, Insidefutures.com, etc.

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