Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture April 08, 2021



A surprise smaller-than-expected U.S. planting report should help drive corn and soy prices even higher, said Alex Sanfeliu, who runs Cargill’s World Trading Group. Last week they froze trading in the price of corn, not because it crashed because it went up too much in a single day. Of course, the prices for corn futures have been going up since August of last year. The fastest-growing consumer products in Europe over the four weeks through March 21 were chocolate novelties—perhaps partly due to the earlier Easter holiday—Champagne, tequila, premixed alcohol and ready-to-drink coffee.
The action in CORN and COW, though, says that they will soon – this Spring – at the grocery store.


Antipodean currencies currently top the leaderboard, with the Australian dollar up 0.26% and the New Zealand dollar trading 0.31% higher. We see more room for gradually higher Euro-area bond yields also going forward, driven by higher US yields and an improving Euro-area economic situation. Any indication that the bank will resume its hawkish stance could see the Mexican Peso outperform against funding currencies like the US Dollar and the Euro. This helped to fuel a fresh record run in US stocks, while also weighing on the US Dollar, with the Fed downplaying risks associated with rising yields.
If the correction in the dollar picks up impetus with the opening of trading in London, then we may assume that the euro will continue to recover to 1.1895. This was seen to constitute an upside risk to the global and, consequently, euro area economic outlook as embedded in the staff projections. At the same time, it was stressed that euro area countries were rather heterogeneous and that debt vulnerabilities, which to some extent predated the pandemic, had been exacerbated.
The dollar is mostly softer against the majors in the foreign exchange market, but the euro and Norwegian krona are struggling to make any headway. As the world’s reserve currency, Powell stressed that the US doesn’t have to be first in issuing a digital dollar, but it needs ‘to get it right. Major currencies have been trading in the green against the US dollar on Thursday morning.


At this point, however, it seems both factors may have run their course, setting up gold and gold stocks for a new rally. Naturally, large numbers of investors became enamored with gold and gold stocks as they chased them higher. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8 Advertisement Show Conversation Hide Conversation Sponsored Offers Enthusiastic gold investors everywhere are wondering…has gold finally bottomed? Gold and silver made major secular lows back in 2016, but it didn’t happen for agriculture commodities and oil until last year.
Gold and silver prices edged lower in Indian markets in early trade, after a sharp up-move in the previous session. A dramatic rip higher from March to August last year caused gold to soar by 40% in just five months. The precious metals run to the key $1,760s or even better above $1,775 is approaching, and has already sent my open gold position solidly into the black. In comparison, shares of JSW Steel, SAIL and Tata Steel gave returns in the range of 200-300 per cent.Metal stocks were in the limelight on Thursday as well.
Gold is firm but is backing off from the two-week high set in late Asian turnover near $1747.75.The $1750-$1755 area is seen as a formidable cap. It also allowed gold to establish a new nominal all-time record high at $2,070.


Although, crude stock levels fell by 3.5 million barrels in the week to the 2nd April to 498.3 million barrels, proving a limit to losses. Saudi Arabian crude exports had a marginal increase of 3%, but still remained well below the 6 million bpd mark for the second consecutive month. With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets. If we lift sanctions on Iran perhaps they could squeeze out 1 million barrels a day of oil and condensate.
Price gains were however capped by a spike in U.S. gasoline inventories, of about 4 million barrels, which raised fresh concerns over weakening demand.
Officials have also introduced a growing list of yuan futures to boost the country’s pricing power over commodities like crude oil and palm olein. OPEC exports for March decreased by 350,000 bpd m-o-m to be assessed at 17.30 million bpd (excluding Iran). However, there was a sizable 4 million barrels build in US gasoline inventories which dragged down the market. As of 09:00 BST, the front month Brent futures contract traded 0.60% lower, compared to the previous day s settle, at $62.78/bbl.
The front month WTI futures contract experienced a similar story as it fell by 0.90% to trade at $59.23/bbl during the same time range.

United States

The unemployment rate could fall to 4.5% by year end, while inflation could rise to 2.2%, slightly above the Fed’s conventional 2% target. However, the Fed can’t mitigate these risks alone, and we would also expect other regulatory agencies to focus policy proposals on combating the perceived vulnerabilities. Not so much.For one thing, Biden isn t attempting to affect monetary policy by making either public or private statements aimed at Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Nasdaq Futures are trading up 110 points (up 0.8%) while Dow Futures are trading up 58 points (up 0.2%) The rupee is trading at Rs 74.35 against the US$. tech) continue to struggle in the face of higher US bond yields, the most significant risk is that inflation readings forces the Fed to modify their normalization plans. There are several areas where the Fed could tighten policy, including increasing the severity of its stress tests. That s not good at all.To be sure: Biden likely couldn t be happier with the Fed s current course of boosting economic recovery and downplaying any inflation worries.
US stock futures are trading higher today, indicating a positive opening for Wall Street indices. It s true that several presidents prior to Donald Trump had established a tradition of keeping quiet about monetary policy. The mood in the market remains upbeat after the FOMC minutes pointed to ongoing support from the Fed, despite expectations for a quick recovery in the US.


Beijing, the capital, does not appear to have any supply concerns and has raced ahead with over half of its population dosed. Share Beijing is beating back international criticism of its treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang with a propaganda push on Facebook, Twitter and the big screen. Diplomats have been discussing the pros and cons of boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, though no country wants to be first to call for one. LEARN MORE Published on April 8, 2021, 5:22 AM EDT People line up for Covid-19 vaccines in Beijing on April 8.


The most recent US fiscal stimulus was not factored in the ECB’s March forecasts, and was seen as a clear upside risk for both growth and inflation forecasts. The ECB will revisit the pace of the bond purchases again in June, unless a pressing need arises to make changes earlier. U.K. economy reporter Lizzy Burden reports on the country s messy post-divorce relationship with the European Union, and talks to some people who have been caught in the middle. less The ECB’s last news conference left many market participants a bit puzzled about the ECB’s exact reaction function.
Stephanomics podcast | Almost 100 days have elapsed since the chimes of Big Ben marked Brexit s formal implementation. Sterling has been on the back foot after the separate announcements from both British and EU regulators that there is a link between rare thrombosis cases and the jab. For the U.K., the prize of a post-Brexit trade deal with the U.S. has never seemed so far away.
By now, I have built up excellent skills and experience in analyzing macroeconomic and political developments in Europe, the Eurozone and Germany, including ECB watching.
less EUR/GBP tests key resistance ahead of ECB minutes. Lizzy BurdenAs ever, if Brexit is affecting your business in a way we haven t reported, please get in touch.