Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture August 06, 2020



Global wheat production in the 2019/20 season was approximately 764 MMT, thus in the 2020/21 season, wheat production is projected to be slightly higher than last season’s figure. Wheat production in the (EU-27+U.K) 2020/21 season is forecast at approximately 139.5 million tons, a 10% decrease compared to last season’s figure, which was approximately 154.9 million tons. Wheat production in France is forecast at 31.1 million tons, a drop from last season’s production estimates, which were approximately 39.55 million tons.
Wheat production in North Dakota, which accounts for 50% of spring wheat in the U.S., is revised lower by 4 bushels per acre year over year. Wheat production in the 2020/21 season is projected to remain high, despite the downward revisions in production from major producing countries. In the 2020/21 season, wheat production in the U.S was forecast at 1,866 million bushels, according to data released by the USDA. The decrease in winter wheat production m/m is mainly attributed to a reduction in harvested areas from 24.3 million acres to 23.4 million acres.
Wheat prices were volatile for most of last year, as the highest recorded price was slightly above $5.5 per bushel and the lowest price was $4.1 per bushel. Despite the downward revision in production forecasts, global wheat production is projected to be a record high. Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.217 billion bushels, a 3% decrease year over year.


The Australian dollar powered to marginal news highs for the year as the move against the US dollar continued yesterday. Dollar The dollar is at a very important here, and so far, it is holding support at 92.50. MARKETS TODAY OIL: Oil prices slipped just below five-month highs, with support from a weak dollar and falling U.S. crude inventories undermined by bearish sentiment about fuel demand. Since May, the euro has gained almost 10% vis-à-vis the US dollar and is at the highest level in more than two years.
Like gold, silver has benefited from a massive increase in monetary demand, mainly driven by a decline in the dollar and US real rates. Gold prices rose boosted by its safe-haven allure, while the dollar index was little changed. Gold prices rose boosted by its safe-haven allure, while the U.S. dollar index was little changed. Turkey’s lira tumbled to its lowest level against the dollar as interventions by state banks failed to reassure markets.
Do not fall for the simplistic, generalist view that the price of gold simply moves inversely to the U.S. dollar. If the gold price was simply an inverse of the dollar, then why is it not trading at $1300… which is where it was trading in June of 2018?


Also, the significant increase in the gold:silver ratio in Q1 (reflecting investor preference for gold over silver) made silver prices extremely cheap judging by historical standards. In 2013, when gold prices crashed 25 per cent from the 2011 peaks, many gold loans faced ‘rational default’ and gold loan companies faced a major crisis. In fact, silver has historically outperformed gold in a gold bull market. Next to the private gold hoard of 920 tonnes, the central bank in Switzerland holds 1,040 tonnes in official gold reserves.
Since the silver market is much smaller than the gold market, the impact of investment demand on silver prices is relatively much stronger. The Swiss population owns 920 tonnes in private gold, next to 1,040 tonnes in official gold reserves. In 2002 when gold was $300 per ounce, MAM recommended to its investors to put 50% of their investment assets into physical gold stored outside the banking system. Although silver’s demand is relatively more exposed to the industrial cycle than gold’s demand, silver possesses safe-haven characteristics, which have boosted significantly its investment demand in recent months.
In case, we will return to an international gold standard the distribution of gold is essential, which is why I study the whereabouts of all above ground reserves.
Gold at $100 billion might sound sensational but remember that the world has seen a lot higher gold in fiat money.


Shares in oil and gas companies slid this year as oil prices crashed, but they underperformed other sectors for a decade even before the Covid-19 pandemic destroyed oil demand. Canada’s biggest oil producer said average prices for its natural gas, a byproduct of crude production, rose 2.5% to C$2.03 per barrel in the reported quarter. Please see details below: BP anticipates oil prices to stay under pressure due to prevailing market volatility and believe oil demand will likely be down from 2019 levels.
June’s crude oil imports were pushed much lower as several oil refiners decided to proceed with maintenance. To summarize, we anticipate crude oil to enter a long-term consolidation phase as the self-correction in supply/demand continues in the oil market. Average realized prices for crude and natural gas liquids, however, plunged over 70% to C$18.97 per barrel in the second quarter, before risk management. Energy prices fell 0.2% due to the first weekly retreat in crude oil (-1.3%) since its second-quarter low.
BP’s revenues fell considerably during the second quarter as the COVID-19 pandemic smashed demand for oil and gas. India imported 5.14 million b/d of crude oil in July, up 82% month on month and 23% up year on year. Source: Reduced prices of oil and natural gas can cause operators’ wells to become uneconomical to run.

United States

The social media giant on Wednesday took down a post by U.S. President Donald Trump, which the company said violated its rules against sharing misinformation about the coronavirus. The Fed on Thursday announced a new fine imposed on Capital One for a massive data breach last year that impacted more than 100 million people. The US Small Business Administration (SBA) said on Monday that the billionaire rapper’s Yeezy brand had been cleared to receive $5 million (£4m) under the government’s small-business loan program.
President Donald Trump has threatened to use an executive order to extend federal unemployment claims – a key program that has kept consumption upbeat in the wake of coronavirus. Nonetheless, the stock markets are moving more or less based upon Federal Reserve liquidity, as the central bank continues to bail out Wall Street every time it drops. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said that President Donald Trump was prepared to use executive authority to extend some measures such as supplemental unemployment insurance.
Earlier last week, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) announced its third quarter results that surpassed market expectations. Time out | Twitter and Facebook blocked a video shared by accounts linked to Trump for violating their policies on coronavirus misinformation. Twitter Inc. and Facebook Inc. blocked a video shared by accounts linked to President Trump for violating their policies on coronavirus misinformation.
less (BIGC) shares skyrocketed on the first day of trading at Nasdaq Stock Market on Wednesday.


The forwards reflect lower USD yields and the PBOC putting rate cuts on hold. TikTok, which is not available in China, has tried to put distance between it and Beijing, where the app’s owners, ByteDance, are located.


A cross-party group of MPs has written to Boris Johnson to demand an apology for his apparent attempt to blame care home operators for deaths of residents from coronavirus. Pro-Brexit supporters celebrating in Parliament Square, after the UK left the European Union on 31 January. Just think of the ongoing trade conflicts, Brexit uncertainty and dramatic loss of external demand due to the COVID-19 crisis, which has put pressure on supply chains. During this period the UK still remains in the EU’s customs union and single market and must comply with all EU rules.
The EU wants to show life is better inside the ‘bloc’ and that countries cannot ‘cherry-pick’ certain benefits without the obligations. The transition period is necessary to allow EU and UK negotiators time to agree on what the future relationship will look like. Boris Johnson has insisted that all pupils should be back in school by September to help the economy recover from the coronavirus crisis.
By now, I have built up excellent skills and experience in analyzing macroeconomic and political developments in Europe, the Eurozone and Germany, including ECB watching. With Beirut s repair bill expected to run into billions of dollars, Lebanese are waiting to see if Macron s visit will bring any relief. The European Union got its act together and historically issued common debt.