Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture August 21, 2020



The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN product (NIB) tracks the price of cocoa futures higher and lower. If the price action from 2008 through 2011 is a model for the coming years, we could see the price of cocoa futures rise significantly. During the September-December roll, the cocoa futures market has corrected from the August 10 high at $2559 per ton, the highest price since mid-March. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the cocoa futures market had been moving steadily higher but dropped because of the global pandemic.
The most recent rally in the cocoa market took the price of nearby futures from $2137 in late July to $2559 this month, a rise of 19.7%. The most direct route for a risk position in the cocoa market is via the futures and futures options on the Intercontinental Exchange. The bearish pattern could lead to a deeper correction in the cocoa futures market, which I would view as a buying opportunity.
A rising pound is often bullish for the price of cocoa futures. In June 2017, the price of nearby cocoa futures on the Intercontinental Exchange has been in a bullish trend. The September futures cocoa futures contracts on ICE have rolled to December.


Without reversing higher today, the US dollar will extend its losing streak for a sixth consecutive week against the Canadian dollar. The rapid slide in the US dollar has helped as – per one source – the correlation between a weak dollar and EM outperformance is 65%. The euro fell 0.4% against the dollar after IHS Markit data indicated a smaller rebound in activity in the eurozone’s manufacturing and services sectors than economists had expected. However, the North American market has been leading the dollar sales, and the intraday technicals warn the euro could recover toward the $1.1840-$1.1850 area.
The dollar rose and emerging market economies slowed, and by last year the debt reckoning seemed close at hand. That’s all we’ve had since the final abandonment of Gold standard 49 years ago, although some would say the US dollar effectively became gold. Since the March 23rd lows in the S&P 500, the emerging and international markets have improved, with the weaker dollar helping the last few months.
The euro dropped against the U.S. dollar, though it is still up more than 6% since the end of May. less The EURUSD pair closed higher on Thursday, August 20, with the euro rising 0.20% against the US dollar to 1.1861. The multi-trillion dollar industry has diverted money from stock pickers and reduced costs for everyone from regular individuals to the biggest pensions to enter new markets.


In addition, we also consider Bitcoin as a ‘high-beta play’ on gold, implying that the target range will continue to increase as gold prices are reaching new highs. Law’s printed money was backed by gold, but fractionally, so the amount of gold backing money was 20% of money in circulation. He once quipped that gold “has no utility.” A perpetual optimist on the U.S. economy, Buffett by nature doesn’t like the message that is sent by higher gold prices. Speaking of gold, note that the media and experts have been taking potshots at Buffett of late for buying a gold mining stock.
Gold miners are spiking on very heavy volume here after billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway firm revealed he’s bidding on Barrick Gold. CNBC Anchor: We want to hit on the hot topic of the moment, which is gold and the gold ETF here. Near-month gold prices declined for the first week in 10, falling 1.1%, settling at $1,949.80 per ounce. Gold prices have been volatile in India after hitting a new high of Rs 56,191 per 10 grams.
Hence, holding inflation hedges such as gold, bitcoin, real estate or inflation-link bonds will be crucial.
But it also triggered massive market speculation and ultimately inflation as gold remained scarce.


BEFORE THE BELL Canada’s main stock index futures fell as a resurgence in coronavirus cases raised concerns of a slow recovery in fuel demand, hurting crude oil prices. The reason oil has rallied has been a general recovery in global demand and falling U.S. oil inventories. Oil prices are down slightly amid efforts by major oil producers to hold back output. That seems odd, since oil majors are basically mining for oil. Microsoft Deepens Oil Ties, Helping Petrobras Weather Pandemic Use of cloud computing surges at the Brazilian oil giant.
The confluence of these forces make select oil and natural gas producers possibly the best inflation hedges for the next few years. Meanwhile, gas inventories have shrunk due to curtailments in Appalachian and less oil drilling, which produces a lot of gas as a byproduct. Crude Value Insights offers you an investing service and community focused on oil and natural gas. On the day, near-month crude oil futures declined after the International Energy Agency cut its demand forecast.
Forex traders said positive trend in the equity markets and easing crude oil prices supported the rupee.

United States

Notably, top White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said that the US stock market is experiencing a V-shaped recovery as reflected by performance in the country’s economy. Biden said another four years of a Trump presidency would result in more small businesses closing and higher virus cases. That violated regulations that govern electronic funds transfers, the agency said in a statement announcing one of its largest orders against a U.S. lender under the Trump administration.
less With less than 80 days ahead of the US presidential election, the impact of polling figures, particularly in battleground states may begin to rattle financial markets. While President Donald Trump signed an executive order over the weekend partially extending some of the relief measures, many felt the order would face legal challenges. The US has recorded more than 5.59 million cases of the novel coronavirus since the pandemic hit the country in March. In fact, Dr [Anthony] Fauci said we saved tens of thousands of lives when I closed the border,” Mr Trump said.
In other news, China’s trade minister said the US and China have agreed to hold trade talks in the coming days. That said, equivalent or slightly lower yields with much higher growth in capital appreciation can be found inside the US. Last night, in the US, Robert Redfield, the head of the CDC, said Infections in southern states are slowing, and deaths should start to fall over the next week.


However, experts suggest President Xi Jinping s Clean Plates campaign could be focused on reducing China s dependence on food imports in preparation for possible Covid-19 related supply disruptions. Investors’ concerns about a deepening escalation in tensions between Beijing and Washington were eased slightly by the prospect of talks in the near term. Beijing s blessing does not clear up the legal fuzziness.


Voices Close Related video: UK-EU trade deal post-Brexit ‘unlikely’, says Barnier One again, there’s been no headway in the EU trade talks. The EU and U.K.’s top Brexit negotiators said little progress has been made in talks this week after Britain attempted to break the deadlock. Brexit talks stall again: The EU and U.K.’s top negotiators said little progress has been made this week. On fishing, the two negotiators have made no progress but it s possible the EU may be holding out until the last minute before offering any compromise.
Brexit talks resumed this week after a summer break, but we re no closer to a deal.
Lastly, we note that the UK-EU trade negotiations ended this week with little progress. The EU’s Michel Barnier said a deal seems unlikely at this stage. Time is running out as the cliff edge of a no-deal Brexit looms at the end of the year, when the transition period ends and tariffs potentially kick in. If only the EU budged on this, the British say, a deal could be reached next month. Given the short time left … today at this stage an agreement between the UK and the European Union seems unlikely.