Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture December 23, 2020



Now, with a falling dollar, as measured by the Deutsche Bank Long U.S. Dollar Index, the opposite is happening and EMB is rising. less The cash market open has triggered panic-selling in bonds and the dollar (GBP impact) and a dramatic divergence in the US equity markets. The movement’s primary catalyst is the weak dollar outlook due to massive monetary expansion and expected stimulus package. However, it has an immediate support at 74, which works well for INR longs given the risk-reward ratio; also, the dollar index looks weak for the day.
The net investment yesterday was recorded at ₹1,153 crore (equity and debt combined) and this largely helped the rupee to stay afloat against the dollar despite bearish opening. However, while low oil pricing remains problematic for some countries which depend mainly on dollar revenues from commodities, this is far from being the case for everyone else. The main risk would be losing the primary catalyst, the weak US dollar outlook.
Gene comments on stock, bond, dollar, oil & gold markets, with a particular emphasis on monetary policy, technology issues and S&P intraday action. On the contrary, with a weak US dollar, EM countries will have an easier time paying their colossal debt burden in US dollars. Additionally, despite political clouds having been cleared, the downwards dollar trend continues, mostly explained by rate cuts having eroded the differentials between the U.S. economy and other developed economies.


Barrick is our top non-U.S. gold stock and must own for firm to bullish gold prices. The Gold Analyst offers quality technical and fundamental analysis of the price of gold to help educate readers in their investment decisions. In domestic markets, gold prices slipped today tracking a muted trend seen in international spot prices. The Canadian miner said on Tuesday it intended to pursue “gold streaming” and medium-term debt offering transactions for its Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold project in Mongolia.
Viewed by many as a substitute for gold in a professional portfolio, Bitcoin benefits from one of the main gold’s characteristics – scarcity. Gold prices for the latest contract on MCX are trading down by 0.1% at Rs 50,051 per 10 grams. The streaming transaction would involve “a significant up-front payment” to Oyu Tolgoi, as well as deferred payments based on gold “spot” prices, Turquoise Hill said. Gold prices are trading down by 0.3% at Rs 49,955 per 10 grams.
Barrick Gold (GOLD) February $21 – if you already own it, Feb $23 if you don’t. Spot gold is currently trading at $1,868.67 per ounce as of 0848 GMT.


Africa Oil Corporation Financial Position – Africa Oil Corporation Investor Presentation Africa Oil Corporation continues to get cash flow from the assets it sells. Africa Oil Corporation Diversified Portfolio – Africa Oil Corporation Investor Presentation Africa Oil Corporation had 4 wells drilled – 4 new discoveries in 2019-2020. Africa Oil Corporation Kenya – Africa Oil Corporation Investor Presentation Africa Oil’s key long-term asset is Kenya. The oil market will be watching crude oil inventories at 10:30 a.m. and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1:00 p.m.
On Wednesday, MCX has withdrawn the additional margin of ₹1 lakh in near month and ₹50,000 on far month of crude oil futures contracts. The API reported that crude oil supply increased by crude 2.70 million barrels. Brent crude oil, the other pricing benchmark for world production, declined to its lowest price this century when it traded to a low of $16 per barrel. Africa Oil Nigeria – Africa Oil Investor Presentation The company has a 50% shareholding in POGBV with 3 of the top 5 oil-producing fields in West Africa.
With current WTI crude oil prices at nearly $50 / barrel, the NPV of the asset will be able to generate strong cash flow.
The disruption in Miri and Cendor crude supplies reduced Malaysia’s oil exports this month and supported spot prices in the region.

United States

BEFORE THE BELL U.S. stock index futures were higher as investors remained optimistic about a U.S. stimulus package even after President Donald Trump threatened not to sign the bill. Nor was the House of Representatives and Senate backed US stimulus bill of $900 billion, given that Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction and may not sign the bill. If this results in further debate and a delay in the stimulus package, we will most likely see more volatility in the US equities market in the coming days.
Markets mixed Investor reaction to the possibility that Trump may derail the stimulus package has been fairly muted so far as traders look forward to a few days off. Fixed income investors have been ahead of this for years, exhibiting greater accuracy about Fed policy than the FOMC itself (see Bond Market Looks Past Fed). less “A disgrace” – Outgoing President Donald Trump’s words on the stimulus bill he had urged Congress to pass cause confusion in markets.
The earlier, abrupt descent occurred on news that US President Donald Trump was threatening to not sign the much-anticipated, heavily-negotiated stimulus package that US lawmakers had finally agreed on. Trump didn’t say he would veto the bill as it currently stands, and he has until Dec. 28 to sign it. At the end of the year’s last FOMC meeting last Wednesday, the Fed raised its 2021 real GDP forecast from four percent to 4.2 percent. President Trump may be causing more uncertainty surrounding the covid relief bill in what he calls a “mountain of pork”.


Europe, in particular, was facing unique challenges, including keeping the bloc together amid rising populism, uneven economic growth, troubled banking systems, Brexit, and more. The STOXX 600 Index jumped this morning following reports that “a Brexit trade deal could be struck later in the day.” The pandemic recession insured these virtually zero interest rate targets, though the ECB and the BoJ were actually there even before the pandemic. Boris Johnson may extend the tightest lockdown to more areas of England, while even countries that thought they had the virus under control are seeing fresh outbreaks.
The diffusion of tensions may also contribute to a Brexit deal – as the EU and the UK are getting closer on fisheries. British stocks have been at the center of a risk-off move starting late last week as Brexit concerns resume. The EU has strict regulations for cannabis that contains THC and this has played an important role in the growth of the EU’s CBD market.
Some U.K. officials are even speculating that France closed its borders to give a taste of what would happen if there was a no-deal Brexit. There was some better news for U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson with the announcement that French authorities would allow sea and rail connections with Britain to reopen. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson once compared himself to the green giant when referring to Brexit talks with the EU back in 2019.