Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture December 29, 2020



less This year’s strong rebound in US soybean output found a record demand from both overseas and domestic buyers during the first quarter of the 2020/21 crop year. Overall, this caused a historic 17.4% jump in last fall’s US overseas soybean shipments and processing 1.66 billion bu. At this strong pace, the USDA could raise its US soybean export outlook by 25-35 million bu on their January balance sheet. Earlier this month, NOPA released its November soybean crush.
Mish on Coffee and Sugar Exchange less The PUA and PEUC programs both expired on December 26.


(Video length 00:00:56) Currencies have been mostly bid against the US Dollar on Tuesday, though overall, price action has been less directional and more consolidative in nature. Having its own history with government crackdowns would also likely make Microsoft think twice before spending top dollar to take out a competitor. This month, Disney hiked the price of its SVOD service by one dollar in the U.S., while rival (NFLX) had raked up prices in October.
*Oppenheimer Asset Mgmanalyst John Stoltzfus noted that non-US stocks have paid off for US investors as the dollar lost traction this year. Bitcoin retreated from its newest record high, above $28K, though, like the dollar, it’s now off its lows. What does the Brexit deal mean for the two sides and for the two currencies – the British Pound (GBP) and the Euro (EUR)? For this reason, whenever Draghi, the former ECB President, was asked about the strong Euro, the answer was that the central bank does not comment.
Gold rose on dollar weakness. The dollar slumped once again.


For the gold mining industry, however, the malinvestment occurs during the economy’s bust phase, because the boom for gold mining coincides with the bust for the broad economy. Amid mixed global cues, gold prices in India traded in a narrow range for the sixth day. In global markets, gold prices were slightly higher after US President Donald Trump approved a stimulus package. That, in essence, is why the demand for gold tends to rise during the bust phase of the economy-wide boom-bust cycle.
less Gold mining is — to use technical jargon — a crappy business. Gold Daily The precious metal completed a falling flag on Monday, which followed a H&S bottom. Gold prices are trading down by 0.1% at Rs 49,965 per 10 grams. However, corporations and high-net-worth individuals often prefer other forms of ‘liquidity’, including Treasury Bills and gold. Note that in the previous five sessions, gold has remained in the Rs 50,000 to Rs 50,500 range. A data table with Bitcoin, crude oil, and gold fixes that shortcoming.


Big write-downs by oil companies and the lack of investment and the silly predictions about “peak oil demand” will help create the environment for an oil price super cycle. The happy mood could even support oil, that while still in an uptrend, has been reluctant to breakout higher as covid demand destruction concerns are still a worry. Refinitiv Oil Research uses their ship tracking data to identify all ships calling the port to track and identify operations in the port to determine change in weekly inventory.
Oil and products are also pricing in the President Joe Biden regulation premium that will mean higher prices in the next four years. Please also see our Cross Commodity Report published yesterday, a joint publication by the power, carbon, coal, oil and gas analyst teams in Refinitiv Commodities Research. Oil opened higher, on hopes the newest round of US stimulus will spur demand. Oil Daily WTI is struggling to stay above $48 after finding resistance by its broken uptrend line.
Oil products are also looking solid. Gasoline demand is showing signs of recovery in the U.S. and China, they are already driving like the covid nightmare never happened.
In the next three sessions after that high, WTI ($47.62/barrel) successfully tested the 20-day moving average but is also struggling to save the 10-day.

United States

On the year the S&P is up 530 points, the Nasdaq is up 4,012 points and the Dow is up 1,535 points, with 3 trading sessions to go. Nasdaq Futures are trading up by 45 points (up 0.5%) while Dow Futures are trading up by 170 points (up 0.6%). Nasdaq Futures are trading up by 54 points (up 0.4%), while Dow Futures are trading up by 159 points (up 0.5%). US stock futures are trading higher today, indicating a positive start for Wall Street indices. US stock futures are trading higher today, indicating a positive opening for Wall Street indices.
Contracts on the Nasdaq-100 index climbed 0.4%, signaling that technology stocks will also gain. During the apex of its monetary policy response to the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the Fed was printing $80 billion in new money per month. Interestingly enough, yet another (minor) sell-off hit the UST market’s longer ends just this morning – on information that President Trump won’t veto the bill after all.
His market analysis can also be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. Contracts on the Nasdaq-100 index signal that technology stocks will also gain on Tuesday.


While the UK gave ground on fisheries, the deal enables UK goods to be sold in the European Union’s single market without quotas or tariffs. On the other hand, the European Union lost one of its strongest members – an economic powerhouse and a historical ally and friend. Most of the news out of Europe revolves around Brexit deal aftermath and coronavirus updates. 5, after the 27 ambassadors of the EU member nations officially approved the Brexit deal, to be implemented on Jan 1.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to win by a large majority when Members of Parliament vote this week to ratify the text. In a way, the SNB’s problem looks like the ECB’s problem, at least when it comes to inflation. Also the underwhelming Brexit reaction raising worries about Sterling and hedge funds positioning themselves for further commodity upside in 2021. On the one hand, the United Kingdom sees it’s very own union threatened, as Scotland opposed Brexit vehemently.
More importantly, service companies will lose access to European Union markets.