Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture February 25, 2021



That record dates back to 2017, when farmers planted 90.2 million acres of soybeans, according to USDA data. “If realized, this would approach the highest planted soybean area figure on record,” said Mac Marshall, vice president of market intelligence for the United Soybean Board. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that farmers will plant 182 million acres of corn and soybeans in 2021.


The expectation of a vaccine driven quick economic recovery is spurring the reflation trade boosting demand for riskier assets whilst dragging on demand for the safe haven US Dollar. RETAIL TRADE CONFIDENCE INDICATOR (5%) Retail trade confidence declined both in the EU (-0.5) and euro area (-0.6) Construction confidence remained broadly unchanged (+0.3). US Dollar hits new low against Australian and Canadian Dollar. However, we now expect a slightly stronger dollar ahead and see USDNOK about sideways going forward.We still expect the NOK to strengthen during the next couple of years.
The dollar and sterling are the only two major Western currencies whose central banks are yet to embrace this policy, yet the Fed remains reluctant. EUR/USD looks towards 1.22 and currently trades at a monthly high of 1.2180 heading into the European session amid broad US Dollar weakness (FXE, UDN). The two got stock in AB InBev at a 50% premium to SABMiller’s undisturbed share price in dollar terms, according to Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling.
However, we have changed our view on the USD and now expect a slightly stronger dollar ahead. The dollar index fell after dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve. However, as the brewer’s share price has more than halved since then, they are down in dollar terms today.


After the recent decline, gold prices are now down about Rs 10,000 per 10 grams as compared to August highs of Rs 56,200 per 10 grams. Gold prices for the latest contract on MCX are trading down by 0.1% at Rs 46,475 per 10 grams. Gold prices are trading flat at Rs 46,528 per 10 grams. Hubert is an independent gold and silver analyst who specializes in fractal analysis and the fundamentals of gold and silver . … more Hubert is an independent gold and silver analyst who specializes in fractal analysis and the fundamentals of gold and silver .
On MCX, gold futures fell 0.2% to Rs 46,439 per 10 grams. Minister for Road Transport & Highways Nitin Gadkari last month accused big players in the steel industry of cartelisation to hike prices artificially. In global markets, gold prices fell 0.4% as a risk-on rally in equities dimmed the appeal of the safe-haven asset. Gold prices today extended decline to the third day in Indian markets amid a risk-on rally.
BEFORE THE BELL Futures for Canada’s main stock index fell, pressured by lower gold prices.


The largest U.S. oil producer is reeling from the sharp decline in oil demand and a series of bad bets on projects when prices were much higher. Back in 2016, most shale oil projects were said to need oil prices in the $50 to mid-$60 per barrel range to be commercially viable. As the global recovery continues, oil demand will rise and oil inventories will fall further. Despite the rising prices, Apache said it expects oil production to fall by a percent this year.
According Reuters, OPEC+ producers will consider increasing oil production by a total of 500,000 bpd at their meeting next week. The company is reeling from the sharp decline in oil demand and a series of bad bets on projects when prices were much higher. less Crude and Brent oil prices are surging this week, up over 7% and 6%, respectively. Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs raised its price target for Brent oil to hit $75 a barrel by Q3, up from a price target of $65. WTI Weekly TTM Now that WTI is above $60 per barrel, will the companies producing in shale oil regions increase production?
Given a faster vaccine roll-out and much higher oil prices than expected, the outlook for the Norwegian economy has improved.

United States

US stock futures are trading higher today indicating a positive opening for Wall Street indices with Dow Futures trading up by 40 points (up 0.1%). Futures tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq index slipped as investors continued to rotate out of high-flying growth stocks into cyclical shares that are expected to benefit from an economic rebound. Follow the dogma, and you understand the next step is negative interest rates as the policy designed to stimulate the US economy out of its post-covid slump.
Speaking to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, he said that the U.S. economy is a long way from full employment and the Fed’s inflation goals. Nasdaq Futures are trading up 28 points (up 0.2%) while Dow Futures are trading up by 79 points (up 0.3%) The rupee is trading at 72.46 against the US$. Unlike in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, when the Fed kept trying new things in monetary policy — QEI, QEII, Operation Twist (lol), Evan’s Rule, etc.
The Fed still wants to keep inflation contained, but it no longer recognizes the concept of “too high” employment. US stock futures are trading higher today, indicating a positive opening for Wall Street. That means the Fed will continue to support the economy with low-interest rates and asset purchases. “The frenzy is fed by people who are getting commissions and other revenues out of this new bunch of gamblers.


China denied ever asking U.S. diplomats to take anal swab tests for Covid-19 following a report that said Beijing admitted to the practice. Still, there are numerous questions, and the agreement has not prevented Beijing from punishing Australia for its foreign policy. The arrivals include three Panamax vessels: the BW ZAMBESI (9393101) from Saudi Arabia, and Unipec s HAFINA BEIJING (9856634) and JO REDWOOD (9602722). Instead, Beijing and Moscow like those thorns in America’s side.


Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI rose markedly in Poland (+4.7), Italy (+4.4), Germany (+3.0), and, to a lesser extent, in France (+0.9).