Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture June 04, 2021



This tool indicates a 9% chance that corn prices will decline by more than $2.00 per bushel and 20% chance of soybeans to decline by $2.00 per bushel. At harvest time 2021 corn futures were above $6.00 per bushel and soybean prices were above $14.00 per bushel. Coincidentally, a corn name was one of our top ten names on Thursday: not the agricultural company (CTVA) that Hempton mentioned, but the (CORN). On Thursday, the hedge fund manager John Hempton, alluding to AMC’s announcement that it would offer free popcorn to its shareholders, quipped that maybe people should invest in corn.


less Dollar weakness is a topical subject this year, inspiring new forecasts that the currency is in danger of losing its reserve currency status. If the jobs report overshoots the 650k baseline forecast and the unemployment rate decreases, the dollar will continue to move higher against peer currencies. less The Indian Rupee finds itself under pressure against the US Dollar after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 4.00% in June.
There are several reasons why the yuan isn’t set to displace the dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency. Meanwhile, the dollar’s position as the reserve currency remains secure, albeit battered and bruised relative to post-war history. The dollar is rising against most emerging market currencies, though, of note, the Turkish lira is stabilizing after losing about 1.25% yesterday, its largest loss in four weeks. A better-than-expected ADP jobs report sent the dollar and bond yields higher and stocks lower Thursday.
That’s not to say that near-term factors won’t weigh on the buck or that the US dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency is permanent. As a result, one-year yuan swap points dropped to the lowest since January, reflecting higher dollar funding costs. The ADP figures lifted the dollar and put Treasury yields under pressure, which equals encouraging speculation that taper is coming.


Therefore, investing in gold miners is essentially like leveraging investment in gold, as you can see a move of 2-3X in a typical gold mining company relative to gold. less Despite clear signs of higher inflation, robust technical setups, and other bullish elements, VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and gold miners in general, remain notably undervalued. Gold, GDX, and the broader gold mining sector have favorable fundamental tailwinds, bullish technical setups, and likely have substantial room to appreciate going forward.
For instance, if gold is to appreciate by roughly 5%, we could see an increase of around 10-15% in a gold mining company’s stock. As the price of gold goes up the value of gold mining companies should grow as well. less The multi-month bullish gold trend remains in place after yesterday’s USD rally sent the precious metal spinning lower. Retail traders remain heavily long of gold – see below – with short-positions pared back sharply both yesterday and over the last week.
Given how extremely positive the fundamental situation is, gold’s reaction is even more extremely bearish. However, stock in gold mining companies typically rises more than the underlying asset. Radomski is the author of Sunshine Profits’ Gold & Silver Trading Alerts and many of company’s investment tools.


Upbeat U.S. PMI figures bolstered crude oil prices this week showing a prosperous manufacturing performance for the month of May. Even if little changed, oil prices are firm, with the July WTI contract hovering around $69 a barrel, consolidating a 4.25% gain this week. Oil prices rose, aided by demand prospects as COVID-19 vaccination take off globally. August ICE Brent futures were $0.12 higher at $71.74/bbl, while the rest of the 48-month forward contracts traded between -$0.22 and $0.07.
June CFR naphtha-Brent cracks were $0.06 higher at -$0.65/bbl; 3Q ’21 traded $0.15 higher at -$0.91/bbl while the 2H Cal ’21 advanced $0.13 at -$0.92/bbl. June 92 RON-Brent cracks were $0.33 higher at $5.75/bbl; 3Q ’21 traded $0.29 higher at $6.12/bbl while the 2H Cal ’21 advanced $0.23 at $6.00/bbl. Although the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) concluded that they will slowly reduce restrictions on production cuts going forward, price action continues to soar.
What a Dutch court ruling means for Shell and Big Oil. Front month July WTI futures were up $0.18 at $69.23/bbl, with the other 49-month forward contracts traded between -$0.22 and $0.17.
Plans for a LNG plant on the country s southern coast and a pipeline connecting offshore fields have been under consideration since 2014.

United States

Overseas investing, especially the US markets, has become easier for Indian investors, thanks to global platforms such as Globalise, Vested and Stockal. BEFORE THE BELL Wall Street futures were little changed as investors maintained a cautious stance ahead of the non-farm payrolls data for May. Wall Street futures were little changed as investors maintained a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for May. The action of the largest US cinema chain has been among the most thriving in the US market due, in large part, to the GameStop phenomenon last January.
“Any major surprise today could go a long way in shaping the narrative around the Fed’s normalization timeline,” said Marios Hadjikyriacos, investment analyst for XM. Specifically, better wage growth could further fuel a push higher in Treasury yields as Fed tapering expectations are brought forward. The COVID-19 pandemic increased the popularity of commission-free trading applications in the US last year.
Other impediments to the yuan’s rise as a true reserve currency include a lack of transparency in China’s financial markets on par with the US. Rest assured, it isn‘t in practice, apart from communication exercises otherwise known as forward guidance, all happening during a week when the Fed injected $32bn into the markets. In addition, a poll released yesterday by Wells Fargo revealed that the GameStop stock market phenomenon had triggered interest on Wall Street even among American teenagers.


Unlike the previous order, it doesn t affect the many subsidiaries of those firms, offering a way for Washington and Beijing to continue conversations that have become more frequent. It s given out over 700 million vaccines in total, and major cities like Beijing will reach herd immunity in a matter of weeks.What then? It followed a move Monday when the PBOC required lenders to hold more foreign currencies in reserve.


It was a striking statement for the ECB board member, who only six months ago argued that such purchases should adhere to the principle of market neutrality. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speak about green issues today. The ECB will extend its phase of faster bond-buying through the summer, a Bloomberg survey of economists shows. EU Keeps Some Non-Essential Travel Restrictions Visitors from U.S., U.K. may still need to abide by quarantine requirements.
ECB buying.