Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture March 11, 2021

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Currencies

That move triggered a higher dollar, but the strong dollar theme was short-lived. If additional headlines lay the ground for further spending, that would also push yields and the dollar higher. Last year, a remark by Lagarde on spreads rocked debt markets by appearing to undermine previous pledges to defend the integrity of the euro zone. Silver also is in demand as a safe haven asset and as an alternative to the US dollar and other fiat currencies. A lower dollar is beneficial for emerging markets that issued most of their debt in the world’s reserve currency.
The government giving all that money for free means the US dollar is worth less and less. Your dollar is going to buy less than it did, and in the future it will buy even less. The new fiscal stimulus from the United States puts further pressure on the dollar moving forward. As the government prints more money, the value of the US dollar continues to plummet in value. Weak US inflation figures also contributed to cooling down the dollar.

Metals

It’s a poor-man’s gold, so far more investors can buy silver than gold, which increases demand and, therefore, the price. Physical gold and silver have been valued for thousands of years, which also gives them an advantage in terms of risk over Bitcoin. The world’s biggest listed miner is looking to grow its exposure to “future facing commodities” or those expected to be cornerstones of the world’s transition towards cleaner energy. The key to the short squeeze in silver is that as the economy opens up again, demand will increase for silver for industrial uses, which will further strain supplies.
Gold prices could extend gains if the central bank appears relatively more aggressive about rising longer-term rates in government debt. It was only until 2020 when a massive 83 tons of Chinese gold bars used as loan collateral turned out to be nothing but gilded copper. The story unfolded last summer when commodities firm Mercuria Energy Group Ltd bought $36 million of copper from a Turkish supplier.
Gold and silver offer far more stable value than fiat paper currencies. Gold rose $10.6 yesterday and tested the $1740 level today, its highest level since the middle of last week. SAINT ALBANS BAY and SILVER HAGUE both loaded from Sohar (Oman) while PACIFIC DIAMOND loaded from Jubail (Saudi Arabia) and VICTORIOUS loaded from two ports i.e.

Oil

Oil prices rose as a steep fall in U.S. fuel stocks meant a crude glut would be short-lived as refiners restart in Texas after last month’s freeze. All oil traders know that the higher price for oil, the higher price for products. less Crude oil prices aimed higher over the past 24 hours, brushing aside a fairly bearish inventories report from the Department of Energy (DOE). Crude inventories rose by 13.8 million barrels in the week to March 5 to 498.4 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an 816,000-barrel rise.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc: The company said its total greenhouse gas emissions dropped 16% in 2020 as oil and gas sales fell sharply due to the coronavirus pandemic. The country has been recovering slowly since November last year, primarily driven by the reviving demand for crude oil. China did try to sneak in Iranian oil but was called out by the Trump administration and that slowed and stopped almost all of China’s illicit oil imports.
U.S. crude inventories were up by 13.8 million barrels in the week to March 5 to 498.4 million barrels, data from the EIA showed. Last week, crude stockpiles surged 13.8 million barrels against expectations of a 0.33 million gain. Interest rates already are rising and prices of basic commodities, such as grains and crude oil, are all rising rapidly.

United States

For comparison with the VTI data, consider the US bond market’s streak data, based on Vanguard Total US Bond Market ETF (BND). So I expect to see more language like we saw last week from the Fed, that pushes back and adds qualifiers to “substantial progress.” Meanwhile, benchmark yields are softer, and the US 10-year note yield is below 1.50% for the first time since the middle of last week. The more conventional IPO market is also sporting extreme valuations as Wall Street is busy wheeling and dealing in a zero-interest rate environment.
The growth-linked commodity seemed to focus on general risk appetite as Wall Street continued to move higher following some recent market volatility.
In the US, more than 214 million people play video games one hour or more per week and 75% of households have at least one person who plays. Said in another way, the Fed wants to autopilot this new reaction function, and the market is seemingly not letting them. But Fed data also indicates that factors other than rate expectations are contributing to the increase in yields, prompting deeper worries.
The Fed is saying look how consistent we’ve been, and the market said that is exactly the problem. However, despite the softer core inflation reading from the US, Treasury yields could yet climb on fiscal stimulus bets.

China

The Beijing-based company’s net revenue rose to 224.3 billion yuan ($34.58 billion) in the quarter ended Dec. 31, beating analysts’ estimate of 219.73 billion yuan.

Europe

If economic expansion is sluggish – in line with the EU’s snail’s pace vaccination campaign – will the bank act to lower bond yields? Investors expect ECB President Christine Lagarde to address the recent rise in bond yields in the region in the subsequent press conference. No change in rates is expected, instead investors will be watching to see how the ECB looks to deal with rising bond yields. “This is undesirable.”“The ECB has taken action to address rising bond yields, saying asset purchases will be stepped up in the near term.
As a result, the ECB’s current stance is not enough to remove the risks of even faster increases in bond yields. However, traders are expected to closely follow Lagarde’s press conference and any comment on the recent rebound in yields. The ECB clearly has some preparedness for higher weekly purchase amounts, but such preparedness may weaken, as the signs of an economic recovery increase towards the summer. In the domestic calendar, all the attention will be on the ECB interest rate decision, although consensus sees the central bank keeping the monetary conditions unchanged.
Senior EU officials urged the U.K. to come clean about its exports of vaccines, amid an increasingly terse dispute where the bloc accused Britain of having an export ban. Beyond the initial claims data at 8:30 a.m., the ECB’s latest rate decision is expected at 7:45 a.m., followed by a press conference with President Christine Lagarde.

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