Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture March 12, 2021



The steepest losses against the US dollar have been seen by the franc (-0.46%), the New Zealand dollar (-0.38%) and the Australian dollar (-0.33%). One is that the aggressiveness of the monetary and fiscal stimulus would inevitably lead to a lower dollar, hence, higher inflation. BEFORE THE BELL Nasdaq futures fell as a spike in U.S. bond yields reignited inflation worries and sent investors scurrying to the perceived safety of the dollar. The Canadian dollar was little changed at C$1.2519 per U.S. dollar as of 9:55 a.m. in Toronto.
Another major factor is the recent decline in the dollar which will drive oil prices higher before the fed meeting next week. The euro swung between gains and losses after the ECB meeting, but amid a weakening dollar, buyers mustered a rally to 1.1990. There are three fundamental downside drivers: Returns on US debt remain the main market driver – and when they rise, the dollar moves higher as well. The decision from the Bank of Canada this week failed to move the Canadian dollar, which remains tightly correlated to the price of oil.
Recent lows should act as base building support zone just as the 93 area should act as key resistance on the US dollar index. Nasdaq futures fell on inflation worries that sent investors scurrying to the perceived safety of the U.S. dollar.


Gold and silver prices edged lower today in Indian markets as a rally in risk assets took some shine off precious metals. BEFORE THE BELL Futures for Canada’s main stock index fell, with gold stocks tracking bullion prices lower as U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, while investors awaited jobs data. Gold prices dipped, clouding optimism the U.S. stimulus bill would send prices up. On MCX, gold futures were down 0.3% to Rs 44,731 per 10 grams while silver declined 0.5% to Rs 67,177 per kg.
less When the price of gold surpassed $2,000 USD per ounce in August 2020, it was revered as a key milestone for the precious metal. Despite this bullish outlook, the prospects for gold does not look as positive – the price per ounce is currently sitting around $1700. Gold prices for the latest contract on MCX are trading down by 1.1% at Rs 44,375 per 10 grams. Nevertheless, a softer-than-expected US PPI print for February could pave the way for gold prices to continue rebounding higher ahead of the FOMC monetary policy meeting next week.
We offer mass affluent, HNW, UHNW and institutional investors including family offices, gold, silver, platinum and palladium bullion in London, Zurich, Singapore, Hong Kong, Perth and soon Dubai. Gold prices are trading down by 0.6% at Rs 44,585 per 10 grams.


Shell’s oil trading operations, known internally as Trading & Supply, accounted for 43% of the oil products division’s total earnings of $5.995 billion in 2020. The Energy Information Administration report on U.S crude oil inventories showed crude stockpiles surge by 13.8 million barrels last week. Shell only revealed the earnings from oil trading in its annual report, and left power, natural gas and liquefied natural gas trading out. The import of edible oils came down by 26.89 per cent in February 2021 and 3.85 per cent in the first five months of the oil year 2020-21.
Shell, the world’s largest energy trader, saw a 28% drop in oil sales last year, the report said. Oil has rebounded to levels needed by several OPEC+ nations Source: IMF, Bloomberg data Note: Brent crude prices as of Thursday, March 11. Crude oil futures rose yesterday and it is highly expected to retest the previous peak at around 68$ in the coming days before the fed meeting next week.
A combination of tight supply, higher demand, and faster global recovery put pressure on the price of oil. In addition, new markets are yet to open as some Asian nations are just starting to use gas in power generation instead of more polluting coal and fuel oil.
“So the availability of local oil is bound to increase by about 1-1.5 million tonnes this year.

United States

US stock futures are trading lower today indicating a weak opening for Wall Street indices with the Dow Futures trading down by 62 points (down 0.2%). Sponsored Offers Market futures are down as I write this, but notice that the DOW futures are barely down at all while Nasdaq futures are down over 200. But for now, with the Fed showing no signs of hiking rates shortly and inflation looking tamer than expected, we could see more firepower for stocks.
Besides that, traders should not have higher expectations from the rest of the trading day, as the focus shifts to the all-important Fed meeting next Wednesday. If you pair this with a hawkish balance-sheet move by the Fed, then you may have the perfect cocktail for much weaker risk appetite, but first things first. less After all, the fear was greater when inflation threatened to break below zero than now when it is barely close to 2% (the original Fed’s target). In other words, right by the end of the summer of 2021, the Fed and the Treasury should face higher inflation.
The Fed knows that, and it has been evident in the long preparatory period and baby steps in the prior rate raising and balance sheet shrinking cycle. Bond yields are still at a historically low level, and the Fed Funds Rate remains 0%. Meanwhile, European yields are lagging the move higher in Treasuries, prompting strategists to bet on greater divergence, unless the Fed does anything to change it.


Beijing shamelessly breaks international obligations whenever it suits its purposes knowing western sanctions, like denying CCP officials travel privileges, have a little bite. A Bloomberg report that Beijing is expanding a crackdown on Tencent Holdings Ltd. also weighed on the technology sector.


That could of course be OK, even to the ECB, as long as inflation expectations follow nominal bond yields higher almost 1-to-1. At its policy meeting Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde vowed to boost the pace of purchases under its pandemic bond buying program over the next quarter. The EU’s lead could well make it the starting point for global regulation, as previously happened with its GDPR rules for data privacy and REACH standards for chemicals.
AstraZeneca will supply less than half the number of Covid shots to the EU in the second quarter than originally planned. Metrics such as M3 growth suggest that inflation pressure could be coming in Europe as well, and in such case the ECB is clearly too pessimistic about 2023. Gains from those segments also helped soften a 40.7% drop in exports to the European Union in the first full month after the Britain’s exit from the bloc. That would reverse a 21% drop since their high as Brexit uncertainties, trade wars, pandemic, and tax hikes weighed on transactions.
This week the EU Parliament moved closer to demanding a carbon levy on products from countries said to be lacking substantial efforts to reduce pollution. Unlike other guidelines around the globe, the EU rules are mandatory for a range of financial investors, including asset managers, insurers, hedge funds and pensions. “Both imports and exports to the EU fell markedly in January with much of this likely the result of temporary factors,” Athow said.