Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture March 18, 2021



The arrivals are against CAI’s projection of the cotton crop production at 358.50 lakh bales against 360 lakh bales last season. The total government stock, including by Maharashtra, could be 110 lakh bales, they said.Cotton prices may not have much headroom to rise further as profit-booking has begun, Poppat said. According to Poppat, at least 44 lakh bales of cotton have been exported until last week. Market sources said that the cotton market is witnessing correction due to fears over the impact of the second wave of Covid-19 and investors are booking profits.
Indian cotton has been offered for exports at a competitive price of between ₹44,000 and ₹48,000 a candy this season. The other problem is that even low-quality cotton fetched higher prices. “Bangladesh is the largest buyer of Indian cotton followed by Vietnam, China and Turkey,” he said. It is also used in the production of ethanol as sugar is needed to ferment. Over two decades ago Jay got his start at the Kansas City Board of Trade in the Wheat Futures pit.
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less What a difference a day makes – investors have changed their reaction to the Federal Reserve’s dovish decision and are now pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher. The aussie is today’s main growth engine for the FX market, moving higher against the dollar on the back of strong labor market data out of Australia. Topping the leaderboard are the Australian dollar (+0.53%) and the New Zealand dollar (+0.27%). The flip side of this exceptionalism is a growing fear of higher inflation that could eventually reverse the dollar’s fortunes, according to some investors.
If market participants continue to brush aside rising yields after the FOMC meeting, the downward correction in the dollar will gain momentum. While Dollar General has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors’ minds is: what’s next for the stock? FOREX: Spiking U.S. bond yields boosted the dollar, helping it to revive from two-week lows after the Federal Reserve’s push back against speculation over interest rate hikes.
When the U.S. dollar loses value, there is a corresponding pressure pushing up the price of oil. If the U.S. dollar loses value so that the exchange rate becomes $1 to 18 pesos, Mexico would still want the full 1345 pesos for its barrel. Rather, they need to look at the value of the U.S. dollar in comparison to the currencies of major oil producing and consuming nations.


There is little doubt that investment demand – especially into Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), similar products was the main driver of the gold price higher in 2020. According to World Gold Council data, total ETF demand surged 120% from 398.3 tonnes in 2019 to a new record high in 877.1 tonnes in 2020. Gold and silver gained around 1%, respectively 2%, while the crude oil price declined a little more than half a percentage point. BloombergNEF estimates that global copper demand in both the clean power and the clean transport sectors will double in the next decades, to almost 5 million tons per year.
Gold and silver prices gained as yields on US 10-year Treasuries held relatively steady at 1.66%. less ETF gold demand from investors has soared over the past year. We offer mass affluent, HNW, UHNW and institutional investors including family offices, gold, silver, platinum and palladium bullion in London, Zurich, Singapore, Hong Kong, Perth and soon Dubai.
Gold prices in Indian markets jumped today after the US Federal Reserve maintained its easy monetary policy stance. Increased consumer demand in China and India will help support the gold price in 2021.
Gold prices are trading up by 1% at Rs 45,269 per 10 grams.


The IEA Oil Forecast shows gasoline demand has peaked but overall oil demand is another matter. Oil demand in 2025 is set to be 2.5 mb/d lower than was forecast a year ago in our Oil 2020 report. IEA sees no peak oil demand under default scenario so tougher government policies are needed to curb oil use. In the 1970s, oil was still widely used as a power generation fuel, and coal-fired generating capacity was added to replace it when oil prices soared. Global oil demand, including biofuels, will recover to reach 103.2 million b/d in 2025, up from 91 million b/d in 2020 and almost 100 million b/d in 2019.
As always, the price of oil is also driven by production numbers, demand numbers, demand forecasts, weather, geopolitical events, inventory figures, seasonality and pure speculation. Number one: If oil and gas prices rise consistently and the returns on capital increase, investors might demand more investment. Overall, global oil demand is now forecast to rise by 3.5 million b/d between 2019 and 2025, up from an estimate of 2.8 million b/d in October.
That should increase demand for oil as increasing output fuels the need for the commodity, raising prices in the process. Oil prices steadied after official data showed a further increase in U.S. crude and fuel inventories.

United States

While the Fed remains on track to keep rates lower for longer, it’s notable that the central bank upgraded its economic growth and inflation forecasts for 2021. Japan s Nikkei ended higher, propelled by the Fed’s projection for a rapid economic growth and pledge for low rates. The reason came, once again, from the stock market, which jumped close to record highs (e.g., Dow Jones), on the Fed staying relatively accommodative despite increasing the economic outlook.
As it turned out, four Fed officials see rates higher in 2022, and seven see rates increasing in 2023. The rise came despite the Federal Reserve’s comments today that reaffirmed its commitment to hold rates steady – near zero percent for the Fed funds target rate. Japan s Nikkei ended in the green, propelled by the Fed’s projection for a rapid economic growth and pledge for low rates. less Because it signaled temporary inflation and a stronger GDP than initially thought, the Fed’s message triggered a risk-on move across financial markets.
Stuck at 7 bps since mid-February, around 9 bps in late January, this technical cash side flood of money markets would surely have reached fed funds. Isolating market rates, factoring for repo, even the Fed is thinking this way even if it has no real idea why. Despite the growth in Inflation, the Fed expects the growth to be highest in the nearly 40 years.


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Not a bit of it: only yesterday, the Commission’s President threatened to invoke Article 122, allowing the EU to seize AstraZeneca’s factories and ban vaccine exports to the UK. One trader told Joe Mayes: I can t believe they could be so stupid to kill U.K. exports, but allow free rein into our country from the EU. Its response to Brexit and the pandemic, where it is now threatening emergency powers in order to secure vaccines is a latest throw of the political dice.
This ending, a sort of financial suttee where it joins the failing EU Commission on it funeral pyre, is plainly inevitable, and will increasingly be seen to be so.
The ECB last week announced that they will front load the bond buying program. As for the Bank of England, the most interesting thing to watch is the bank’s reaction to the recent drop in trade numbers with the European Union. Image Source: Pexels This week, the ECB took the next step towards its inevitable destruction of itself, its system and its currency. Investing in EU production facilities had become less attractive due to the implied threat to property rights.
But since Brexit, the EU has advertised its own insecurity by waging a trade war against British imports, tying them up in needless bureaucracy. But as the other bookend to Draghi’s promise to deploy bond purchasing programmes, Lagarde’s promised intervention is of necessity far larger.