Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 18, 2020



less Soybean (SOYB) futures sold for around $11.69 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday, breaching a four-year high earlier this month. Soybean futures sold for around $11.69 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday, breaching a four-year high earlier this month. Cotton prices currently hover at around ₹5,790 per quintal at the Rajkot mandi, which is below the minimum support price (MSP) of ₹5,825. By comparison, CBoT soybean futures were trading around $9.40 per bushel when the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal was signed in mid-January.
Soybean prices hold near $12 per bushel, which was also driven by adverse weather (storms and drought) in both the US and South America. Also, Cotton Association of India has estimated an output of 356 lakh bales (360 lakh bales). Reuters notes many Brazilian farmers sold their crops before CBoT soybean futures began to rise. This month, Brazil suspended tariffs on soybean imports from outside the country to ensure its domestic supplies were stable following strong demand.
Price outlookIndian cotton is currently the cheapest in the world and this has triggered new prospects for exporters. “It started with better-than-expected demand, particularly from China as they bought soybeans because they needed them as part of the Phase 1 trade deal,” he said.


The age-old saying of “a dollar saved is a dollar earned” remains true when it comes to wealth generation. Likewise, you need to be wise and smart about how you spend your income knowing that every dollar spent negates a dollar earned. The time government policies reduce innovation and the creation of globally competitive industries, the Dollar will become fundamentally weak. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies whose value is tied to a ‘stable’ fiat currency like the US dollar.
This, in turn, dissolves the value of the dollar, which means that it also affects any cryptocurrencies (stablecoins) tethered to the greenback. When the Fed creates money out of thin air to buy bonds, the money flows to risk assets outside America and the dollar is devalued. At September 30, 2020, the bank had modified less than 1% of its total loan portfolio by number and less than 3% by dollar in response to COVID-19. The problem with this concept is that even the US dollar loses value with time.
With a stablecoin like Tether (USDT-USD), which is pinned to the US dollar, the price would not have changed as much. The South Korean’s won’s 4.5% appreciation against the dollar this year may overstate its strength given the importance of intraregional trade.


In 2002 when gold was $300 per ounce, MAM recommended to its investors to put 50% of their investment assets into physical gold stored outside the banking system. Also, unlike gold which is the third highest reserve assets that central banks own, I can’t imagine central banks, big Institutional investors, businesses or multinational companies using it. 18, 2020 10:20 AM ET|| About: Superior Gold Inc. (SUPGF)by: SA TranscriptsThe following slide deck was published by Superior Gold Inc. in conjunction with their 2020 Q3 earnings call.
Note: VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX), the other gold ETF in the portfolio, was correspondingly decreased during the quarter. As usual, these fast moves in the precious metals take place in the paper markets where the casino players can shuffle billions of dollars of paper gold and silver. The GoldSwitzerland Division was created to facilitate the buying and storage of physical gold and silver for private investors, companies, trusts and pension funds.
In global markets, gold rates edged lower today even as coronavirus cases continued to surge in many parts of the world.
On the domestic front, gold prices in India also edged lower, tracking muted global cues. On MCX, gold futures today fell 0.4% to Rs 50,546 per 10 grams, extending losses to the third day. Gold, an investment that is also seen as a hedge, rose to an all-time high in August.


Oil rose on hopes that OPEC and its allies will delay a planned increase in oil output to offset a bigger than expected build in U.S. crude inventories. Because of this dependence on the prospects for the oil industry, Boot Barn stock has historically had a positive correlation with crude oil prices. The data, which is based on 13 major oil and oil storage companies, showed a total of 16.585 million bbls of product in storage representing a 10-year high. The collision of the virus’s influence on demand with complex supply fundamentals may make for a volatile year for oil prices.
The last thing the oil market needs in this lockdown winter will be 2 million more barrels a day of supply. U.S. shale production may shrink further in 2021 so long as WTI crude oil prices hover around $40/barrel. Jet fuel is a meaningful component of oil demand in its refined state, and airline travel remains severely constrained in countries where the virus has not been well contained.
CNE Oil & Gas, a subsidiary of Canacol Energy, and the Colombian arm of Parex each placed two bids in an initial auction at the end of last month. On average, the crude oil production in these shales fell by 20% in the past year. Over the past couple of months, crude oil price has stabilized at the $40’s level, while there has been a rise in the frac spread count.

United States

The primary market isn’t a physical market like we would typically associate with Wall Street. Also, expectations from federal funds futures suggest a consensus that the Fed will keep rates near zero for several years. Since the US election, Bitcoin prices (in USD) have surged a stunning 40%, also lurching higher after each vaccine headline hit. The main objective of the Fed’s credit facilities is to provide a liquidity backstop for corporate bonds and improve credit market functioning.
The market continues to base its move higher on the fact that the “that the Fed has your back”, so that is what most people trade on. For the S&P High Yield Corporate Bond Index, the impact of the Fed’s credit facilities on new bond issuance was more visible. If yields went above this range, the Fed would take the view that rising yields might impair the pace to the economic rebound. We could see the Fed’s balance sheet expand to between $8.5 trillion and $10 trillion by the end of 2021 depending on the size of the U.S. budget deficit.
We expect the Fed to expand U.S. Treasury purchases to cushion the impact of new fiscal stimulus and anticipated Treasury issuance. Growth from hyperscale operators like (AMZN) and (GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is clear enough, but investors may be underappreciating the long-term growth potential from edge computing as 5G rolls out.


When the ECB first announced it would scale down its asset purchases in late 2016, the market was pricing around 1% higher short rates on a 5-year horizon. PMIs were heading higher, GDP growth had accelerated and the unemployment rate was falling, boosting the ECB’s confidence that further progress towards meeting the inflation target would be ahead. Back then, the ECB never actually got into raising rates but was instead forced to restart net asset purchases later in 2019.
The market is not pricing in much risk of tighter monetary policy any time soon – room for a significant repricing in a hawkish ECB scenario.
The ECB could change its stance much sooner than inflation hits the target. However, inflation does not need to be at target for the ECB to start scaling down purchases. The ECB will conclude its strategy review next year, which could also have an impact on the preferred monetary policy tools of the central bank. In June 2018, the ECB’s staff forecasts still showed inflation at only 1.7% in 2020, though the core inflation forecast stood at 1.9%. As talks continue between the EU and the UK and rumours swirl that a deal could be ready as soon as Monday or Tuesday next week.
The ECB tapering decision in June 2018 was accompanied by a message that progress towards a sustained adjustment in inflation has been substantial so far.