Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 21, 2020



In the world of soybeans, processors crush the oilseeds to create two products; soybean meal and soybean oil. When soybean crush spreads rally, it often tells us that the demand for soybean products is rising and vice versa when the spread declines. The Teucrium Soybean ETF product (SOYB) moves higher and lower with the price of a portfolio of soybean futures contracts. For those who do not venture into the futures arena but wish to participate in the soybean market, the Teucrium Soybean ETF product (SOYB) provides an alternative.
As of the end of September, total US soybean export sales commitments for the 2020/21 marketing year reached 35.5 million tonnes, up 23.3 million tonnes from a year ago. The most direct route for a risk position in the soybean market is via the futures and futures options that trade on the CME’s CBOT division. Source: CQG Soybean oil futures have been moving higher since April 27 when they hit a low of 26.0 cents per pound.
Since the oilseed is the ingredient in the products, the crush spreads indicate overall strength or weakness in the soybean market. Chinese demand for soybean remains strong, with the recovery in pig herd and pork consumption from the outbreaks of African swine fever. In our view, the phase one deal between the US and China would eventually shift soybean trade back to pre-trade war patterns.


In Neemuch mandi also dollar chana traded low, with dollar chana (best quality) being quoted at ₹5,820-₹6,300 a quintal, dollar chana (average) at ₹5,300-₹5,745 a quintal. The US dollar posted an outside down day against the Canadian dollar yesterday, and follow-through selling today took the greenback to almost CAD1.3080, the lowest level since September 7. The US dollar continues to leak lower and the dollar basket (DXY) is now below a noted short-term support level around 93.00.
The Australian dollar’s gains appear to be reflecting the broader US dollar weakness. The dollar is falling against most of the world’s currencies today, even as long-term yields rise to the most in four months and drag global yields higher. The rising odds of another period where the world worries about a no-deal Brexit could cause volatility in the pound versus the US dollar currency relationship to rise. The dollar and the euro are the leading foreign exchange instruments, and the pound is also a reserve currency.
The Invesco Currency Shares British Pound Sterling Trust (FXB) moves higher and lower with the British pound’s value against the US dollar. The US dollar has been trending lower against the euro, but the problems in Europe could provide some support for the weak US currency. Gold continued to rise above $1900 as the dollar fell, although rising real rates constrained gold upside.


If you have a kind word for gold in a monetary context, you are immediately labeled a “gold nut,” “gold bug,” “Neanderthal” or something worse. Now that gold traded freely, we saw the beginning of bull and bear markets, something that doesn’t happen on a gold standard where the price is fixed. They both confirmed that the suspension of gold redemptions was meant to be temporary, and the goal was to return to gold at new prices. Many observers believe that the gold standard “ended” on August 15, 1971 when President Nixon suspended the redemption of dollars for gold by foreign trading partners.
The official gold standard was dead, but a new “private gold standard” had just begun. The Gold Analyst offers quality technical and fundamental analysis of the price of gold to help educate readers in their investment decisions. Indeed, with silver markets, it seems that investors tend to buy silver after it has been performing well which in turn leads to additional strong performance.
The two great bull markets were 1971-1980 (gold up 2,200%) and 1999-2011 (gold up 760%). 21, 2020 11:05 AM ET|| About: Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)by: SA TranscriptsThe following slide deck was published by Kinross Gold Corporation in conjunction with this event.
21, 2020 11:03 AM ET|| About: Midas Gold Corp. (MDRPF)by: SA TranscriptsThe following slide deck was published by Midas Gold Corp. in conjunction with this event.


Since crude oil is the primary input, low product prices compared to the raw petroleum can be a sign that the crude oil price is heading lower. In the crude oil market, the refining spreads for cracking crude oil into gasoline and distillate products can provide clues about the demand side of the equation. Conversely, strength in gasoline, heating oil, jet, and diesel fuel prices via rising crack spreads is often a bullish sign for crude oil. Oil traders are also eyeing Wednesday’s EIA inventory reports, expecting a 1.02 million barrels fall in US crude oil stockpiles.
The oil imports in China, the world’s biggest crude oil buyer, increased by 2.1% to 11.8 million bpd in September from 11.2 million bpd in August. Due to this strong bias towards oil producers, XLE’s performance is influenced by oil prices. At the end of 2019, COP had proved reserves of 5.3 billion boe and CXO had proved reserves of 1 billion boe (62% oil and 38% natural gas). It is worth noting, however, that falling crude inventories should not mask a weakening demand outlook, which remains a key drag to oil prices.
US crude oil imports have also fallen by nearly half a million barrels a day from the previous week. Crude Value Insights offers you an investing service and community focused on oil and natural gas.

United States

But if President Trump wins reelection, less fiscal aid would result in higher state and local taxes, and that should support the market as well. We could see price variance in the currency markets increase over the coming weeks as the US election is highly contentious. The OTC and futures markets trade around the clock, while the FXB product is only available during the hours when the stock market in the US is trading. With just two weeks until the U.S. presidential election, President Donald Trump also signalled a willingness to go along with more than $2.2 trillion in new COVID-19 relief.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell warned the Trump administration not to agree to anything like Pelosi’s proposal ahead of the election. The US has recently reported the highest number of new infections since July which, the experts have warned, could be a precursor to an increase in deaths. Price volatility has remained elevated in the past week and has been gradually rising ahead of the US elections, depriving equities to reach to new highs.
Market participants sold the US currency as stimulus talks showed only slight progress in the US. The most significant change in international trade over the last 40+ years is the “America First” stance Donald Trump hoisted onto global trade. With Facebook’s earnings report coming out on just a few days before the US Presidential election, this may strike my long-time readers as a bit odd.


However, should the speed of the appreciation persist, Beijing may begin to fire a stronger warning shot. According to NYPost, the Hate-Speech Engineering team includes one research scientist who earned his master’s degree in computer engineering from the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing. The lower Yuan fix signals that the PBoC are yet to be notably concerned over the Yuan strength.


With only 10 weeks to go until a new trading arrangement must be in place, EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier said a deal is still within reach. The UK leader reached a tentative deal with the European Union for a departure with an agreement, and the election should have sealed the deal. Without an agreement, the business between the UK and EU would default to World Trade Organization rules, causing higher costs and trade barriers. The pound jumped after European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said a deal is within reach.
Pound jumps as EU says Brexit trade deal still ‘within reach.
Five Things Follow Us Get the newsletter Still talking on stimulus, the bond market is saying something, and Brexit deal optimism. Last week there was a Failed Summit in which EU leaders called on the UK to “make the necessary moves” towards a deal. Prime Minister Johnson has accused the EU of changing the rules of the game by adopting a fundamentally different approach for the deal. Formal discussions are expected to resume in the coming days, with EU officials expecting a deal to be struck by mid-November.
If the U.K. leaves without a deal, however, then costs will be imposed on trading with the EU.