Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 23, 2020

Good-Pub-Guide-2016-average-UK-beer-prices_wrbm_large

Agriculture

Corn has gained 4% in three of the past four weeks, giving it a 32% leap in that period. Earlier this week, wheat futures reached the highest since December 2014.Next year is frightening us beyond imagination, WFP Executive Director David Beasley said in an interview.

Currencies

According to forex dealers, positive sentiment in the domestic equity market and weakness in US dollar overseas restricted the rupee’s fall. Sponsored Offers The rupee depreciated 7 paise to close at 73.61 (provisional) against the US dollar on Friday even as the domestic equity market was trading with significant gains. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.21 per cent lower at 92.75.
A stalemate in stimulus negotiation talks boosted the dollar, whilst initial jobless claims fell which added more positivity towards the greenback. This will in turn help the global economy reflate as it will ease financial conditions elsewhere, especially in EM countries with plenty of dollar debt. The downside move in the dollar across much of the week has offset the downward impact of the weakness in equities markets. Zimbabwe’s dollar gained for a second month, showing some stability after plunging since being reintroduced 18 months ago, thanks partly to weekly auctions.
The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a basket of others, slipped 0.1%. Source: ETFdb Over the last six-month period, the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund has been hit with negative net flows of -440.91 million. Co-incidentally, a wider CA deficit will also help supply dollars to the rest of the world – easing dollar scarcity.

Metals

So much of the gold market is “paper gold,” not actual gold. Another reason why I favor AAAU as a gold ETP is the fact that it’s holding physical gold and not financial futures. I describe the market as an inverted period with a little bit of gold at the bottom and a big inverted pyramid of paper gold resting on top. If the return of gold is stronger than the S&P 500’s return, you hold gold for another month and reassess. (Source: Sabina Gold & Silver) It’s an advanced high-grade gold project, there’s been very little progress over the past five years.
This relatively simple strategy captures a key dynamic at work in gold trader psychology: the pursuit of gold when it is performing more strongly than other assets. If gold’s performance lags the S&P 500, then investors exit their gold position. While AAAU isn’t holding futures and therefore isn’t getting dinged from roll yield, this isn’t unique to this ETF – several other products hold physical gold.
In this article, I argue that shareholders of AAAU are likely going to see reward into the next year based on gold fundamentals. AAAU is a unique ETP in the gold space in that it allows physical delivery while only charging a small 0.18% expense ratio.

Oil

Even if oil prices do not reverse anytime soon, any further declines and hence tailwinds for the company’s profitability are highly unlikely going forward. The first one is that the business case for the Boeing 777X is significantly weaker than it was at the time of launch, because oil prices are lower. Biden’s stark remarks on the oil and gas industry could perhaps provide some headwinds for him in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas. BEFORE THE BELL Futures for Canada s main stock index were up, as oil edged higher on the prospect of an extension to OPEC-led supply curbs.
Crude oil has also managed to hang around its recent highs amid ongoing intervention by the OPEC+ group. Oil edged higher on the prospect of an extension to OPEC-led supply curbs. US production of crude oil increased to 10.700 mb/d in the last week of September compared to August levels of 9.7000 mb/d. EIA data showed a surprise build in gasoline inventories in the US, which weighed heavily on crude futures while also heavily impacting the gasoline complex.
The oil market may take some interest in the Baker Hughes rig count at 1:00 p.m. as the shale industry is having a big outbreak of M&A.
Clearway Energy is also a renewable energy company, providing wind, solar and natural gas power generation facilities.

United States

The last debate ahead of the Nov.3 contest saw a restrained Trump and Biden discuss a range of topics, including the economy, the coronavirus pandemic and climate change. In a relatively civil debate following a turbulent first faceoff, President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden traded some barbs last night over the economy. Virus Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden attacked President Donald Trump for his handling of the pandemic in last night’s debate.
Investors looked past the final presidential debate, in which President Trump and Democrat candidate Joe Biden offered differing views of the administration’s handling of coronavirus. Rahul Gupta, Head of Research- Currency, Emkay Global Financial Services said, As we get close to the US election day, uncertainty over the outcome will keep USD-INR spot afloat. First, since July, the Fed has cut asset purchases to around $25 billion a month (~98% decrease compared the March-to-May pace).
One view has it that Trump failed to turn the race around; another that he did enough to keep the momentum behind him to spring another surprise. Trump and Biden traded blows as the final televised presidential debate came to a close. “You got to give Trump a minor victory because he’ll bring some [undecided] voters home, and it’ll close the race a little bit. Between the US and the USSR first time around, each country outdid the other to pull off feats wherein as intended, the people were amazed.

China

U.S. solar group shuns China’s Xinjiang.

Europe

The new deal largely replicates the existing EU-Japan deal, but has an extra chapter on digital trade and lacks the quotas for agricultural exports. The U.S. seems close to finalizing a stimulus deal, Brexit negotiation talks are continuing, and Friday’s economic calendar is busy. If accurate, this would signal that President Emmanuel Macron is laying ground for a compromise that could clear the way to a comprehensive “Canada-style” trad deal with the UK.
This came as the UK sealed its first big post-Brexit trade deal with Japan. At this time, the European Union adopted a policy of promoting the free flow of goods, services, capital and people among its members. It may be that China will be happy to let USD/CNY drop as long as EUR/USD rises, the latter of which the ECB will or should try to fight. Barclays is a conviction buy for me on a 12 months basis, especially as the external environment hopefully normalizes and both Brexit and COVID19 are in the rearview mirror.
The European Commission—the European Union’s executive arm—issued its first wave of common debt to finance its coronavirus-relief programs Tuesday. His grim outlook contrasts with Prime Minister Boris Johnson s willingness to risk a no-deal split with the European Union to defend British fishing. His feature articles have been published on: FXstreet.com, Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, Insidefutures.com, etc.

0