Agriculture
Exhibit 1 illustrates global soybean ending stocks in the 2020-2021 crop year dropping in October 2020 to the lowest level in four years.” Earlier this month, the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecast a large, and somewhat unexpected, reduction in global soybean stocks. At Burger King, comparable sales fell 7% and slumped 12.5% at Tim Hortons, as fewer people bought their morning cups of coffee at cafes amid the work-from-home orders.
Over two decades ago Jay got his start at the Kansas City Board of Trade in the Wheat Futures pit.
Over two decades ago Jay got his start at the Kansas City Board of Trade in the Wheat Futures pit.
Currencies
The US dollar jumped to CAD1.3225 yesterday amid the risk-off push, which often weighs disproportionately on the Canadian dollar. Every dollar you earn should be actively working to earn you another dollar. In line with the trends in international markets, gold prices rose in early trade this morning in the domestic futures market as the dollar softened. BEFORE THE BELL Canada’s main stock index futures inched lower, even as gold prices and the dollar index were little changed.
The dollar remains below JPY105.00, many Asian emerging market currencies edged higher, the Chinese yuan is a little softer. The dollar remains below JPY105.00, Many Asian emerging market currencies edged higher, the Chinese yuan is a little softer. The strengthening of SAP’s native euro currency versus the dollar (the euro has risen from ~$1.10 at the beginning of the year to ~$1.18 now, a ~7% jump. The Turkish lira remains under pressure, and the dollar rose to new a new record above TRY8.15.
The dollar index and gold prices were little changed. While the market impact was muted indeed, the offshore yuan fell after the Reuters report, dropping as much as 0.34% to 6.7234 a dollar afterward.
The dollar remains below JPY105.00, many Asian emerging market currencies edged higher, the Chinese yuan is a little softer. The dollar remains below JPY105.00, Many Asian emerging market currencies edged higher, the Chinese yuan is a little softer. The strengthening of SAP’s native euro currency versus the dollar (the euro has risen from ~$1.10 at the beginning of the year to ~$1.18 now, a ~7% jump. The Turkish lira remains under pressure, and the dollar rose to new a new record above TRY8.15.
The dollar index and gold prices were little changed. While the market impact was muted indeed, the offshore yuan fell after the Reuters report, dropping as much as 0.34% to 6.7234 a dollar afterward.
Metals
For this reason, I like to track the gold miners to gold ratio (GDX: GOLD). With that in mind, I also like to track the silver to gold ratio (SILVER: GOLD). As I’ve noted previously, during inflation-driven bull markets in gold, gold miners typically outperform the precious metal. When gold miners outperform gold, this ratio rises. This would mean a period in which gold miners dramatically outperform gold. When gold miners underperform gold this ratio falls.
Another key feature of bull markets in precious metals is that silver outperforms gold. After a spectacular four-month move, Gold and silver stocks still have not corrected enough in price and time. Since the metals peaked in early August, the net speculative positions in Gold and Silver have not decreased. All of which is bullish for gold, silver and other precious metals.
Another key feature of bull markets in precious metals is that silver outperforms gold. After a spectacular four-month move, Gold and silver stocks still have not corrected enough in price and time. Since the metals peaked in early August, the net speculative positions in Gold and Silver have not decreased. All of which is bullish for gold, silver and other precious metals.
Oil
At $40 WTI oil in the second half of 2020, this would lead to a projection of approximately $374 million in oil and gas revenue and $179 million EBITDAX. The results were boosted by higher oil prices and stronger natural gas trading results, though oil trading was “significantly lower” than the previous quarter, BP said. Low oil prices and waning demand for oil will not help the company’s cause. Source: Baker Hughes Oil traders may also watch this Wednesday’s EIA inventory reports, expecting a 1.5-million-barrel rise in US crude oil stockpiles.
China takes 70% of Brazil’s oil exports, the country’s state oil firm Petrobras said in July. Oil services firms must maintain liquidity to survive the downturn in the oil patch. If Whiting then averages around 80,000 BOEPD in 2021 with a $160 million capital expenditure budget, it would generate around $711 million in oil and gas revenue in 2021. At 488.1 million barrels, the current level of US crude oil inventories is still about 11% above the 5-year average for this time of year.
A 3.0x EV/EBITDAX multiple (using $200 million in net debt and $40 WTI oil, along with 80,000 BOEPD in production) would value the company at approximately $20 per share.
The deal will put Pioneer Natural Resources in a position to generate superior levels of earnings and free cash flows in a low oil price environment.
China takes 70% of Brazil’s oil exports, the country’s state oil firm Petrobras said in July. Oil services firms must maintain liquidity to survive the downturn in the oil patch. If Whiting then averages around 80,000 BOEPD in 2021 with a $160 million capital expenditure budget, it would generate around $711 million in oil and gas revenue in 2021. At 488.1 million barrels, the current level of US crude oil inventories is still about 11% above the 5-year average for this time of year.
A 3.0x EV/EBITDAX multiple (using $200 million in net debt and $40 WTI oil, along with 80,000 BOEPD in production) would value the company at approximately $20 per share.
The deal will put Pioneer Natural Resources in a position to generate superior levels of earnings and free cash flows in a low oil price environment.
United States
Trump looks vulnerable in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia (60 votes) and could lose Texas (38 votes) which was polled at +4 to Biden last week. For example, the European equities went nowhere in the past decade or so, while the US stock market continuously made new all-time highs. In March, the Fed announced that there were no limits to quantitative easing or to the stimulus, which then led to the stock market rallying to record levels. The Fed Funds rate, like SOFR, is an overnight rate, unsecured by Treasuries but perhaps the least risky of the unsecured overnight rates.
A: (sigh) I said that it seems as if the Fed is targeting the stock market. Mr. Trump’s tax cuts, for example, helped boost the stock market early in his presidency. US stock futures are trading higher today, indicating a positive opening for Wall Street indices. Peter said if Biden does win, he thinks any Biden-related market rally will be short-lived, just like the sell-off after Trump won was short-lived.
Q: But you said that the Fed was targeting the stock market. Many argue that the FED is trying to push TIPS prices higher to have the market believing that inflation is indeed about to come.
A: (sigh) I said that it seems as if the Fed is targeting the stock market. Mr. Trump’s tax cuts, for example, helped boost the stock market early in his presidency. US stock futures are trading higher today, indicating a positive opening for Wall Street indices. Peter said if Biden does win, he thinks any Biden-related market rally will be short-lived, just like the sell-off after Trump won was short-lived.
Q: But you said that the Fed was targeting the stock market. Many argue that the FED is trying to push TIPS prices higher to have the market believing that inflation is indeed about to come.
China
The market regards the PBOC’s tolerance of higher market rates as a tightening signal of monetary conditions. To gauge the PBOC’s monetary stance for China’s real economy, we should focus more on credit growth and credit impulse rather than just looking at market rates. This divergence also happened in 2018-2019 when the PBOC injected liquidity and cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), sending short-term rates lower while MLF rates stayed unchanged. Here, we assess the true indicators of the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) monetary stance, reasons for the market rate selloff, and whether China’s onshore bonds offer value.
So far, the PBOC has been tolerating the divergence of market rates and benchmark rates. More surprisingly, the PBOC refrained from injecting more liquidity to contain the sharp increase in short-term rates and bond yields. Amid the confusing signals, what is the most accurate way to gauge the PBOC’s actual monetary policy stance?
We do not expect the PBOC to inject liquidity to contain the rate rise as economic activities continue to recover. The PBOC utilizes multiple tools to control monetary policy. In addition, we believe caution around a potential asset price bubble and financial risk will restrain the PBOC from easing.
So far, the PBOC has been tolerating the divergence of market rates and benchmark rates. More surprisingly, the PBOC refrained from injecting more liquidity to contain the sharp increase in short-term rates and bond yields. Amid the confusing signals, what is the most accurate way to gauge the PBOC’s actual monetary policy stance?
We do not expect the PBOC to inject liquidity to contain the rate rise as economic activities continue to recover. The PBOC utilizes multiple tools to control monetary policy. In addition, we believe caution around a potential asset price bubble and financial risk will restrain the PBOC from easing.
Europe
With EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier now briefing that a deal is ‘within reach’, both sides are hoping for negotiations to break new ground in the coming weeks. That ruling, which could hamstring U.S. companies, will also be relevant to the U.K. as a deadline for a trade deal with the EU nears. Any worthwhile investment strategy should take all future possibilities into consideration, so it’s worth exploring the three ways Brexit talks could go from this point on.
“I think that Macron is desperate to avoid another complete lockdown – for economic reasons but also for reasons of public order.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson theatrically threatened to walk out of Brexit trade negotiations earlier this month, before agreeing to a resumption last week. UK-EU trade talks have intensified, which amounts to daily meetings, according to reports. The ECB could try to counter this by a new long-term loan program (TLTRO) with a rate as low as minus 100 bp. Merkel Wants to Close Restaurants in Virus Battle It would be a partial shutdown of Europe s largest economy to curb spread.
But in the end, EU trade ministers on Monday put their differences aside. While the U.S. gears up for the most contentious presidential election in memory, the European Union is facing a different kind of political maelstrom.
0 “I think that Macron is desperate to avoid another complete lockdown – for economic reasons but also for reasons of public order.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson theatrically threatened to walk out of Brexit trade negotiations earlier this month, before agreeing to a resumption last week. UK-EU trade talks have intensified, which amounts to daily meetings, according to reports. The ECB could try to counter this by a new long-term loan program (TLTRO) with a rate as low as minus 100 bp. Merkel Wants to Close Restaurants in Virus Battle It would be a partial shutdown of Europe s largest economy to curb spread.
But in the end, EU trade ministers on Monday put their differences aside. While the U.S. gears up for the most contentious presidential election in memory, the European Union is facing a different kind of political maelstrom.
