Agriculture
Recently, Brazilian soybean shipments started to decrease with the shortage or depletion of soybean stock in Brazil and tough competition with soybean from the US. Grain and soybean shipments have also outpaced last year’s shipments pace, mainly because of strong soybean demand from China. (Last year, Singapore also became the world’s first nation to ban advertising for high-sugar drinks in the Ministry of Health’s attempt at curtailing sugar consumption among its citizens.)
It can be argued that supply shifts, coupled with the outsized influence of trader commitments, have been the main drivers of sugar’s biggest moves since last year. Weakness in the real, on the other hand, encourages higher sales and global exports among Brazil’s sugar producers, which in turn puts downward pressure on prices. However, Panamax and Supramax shipments have not dropped significantly because Brazilian soybean exports will eventually be replaced by a corn export programme in the third quarter.
With Brazil being the world’s top sugarcane producer, strength in its currency is normally bullish for sugar prices. For this reason, sugar traders should be wary of additional weakness in the commodity’s future price in the near term. Class action lawsuits against cane growers have proliferated in recent years, and the pushback again in Florida’s cane sugar industry is gaining momentum. To say that sugar’s road this year has been a bumpy one would be a gross understatement.
It can be argued that supply shifts, coupled with the outsized influence of trader commitments, have been the main drivers of sugar’s biggest moves since last year. Weakness in the real, on the other hand, encourages higher sales and global exports among Brazil’s sugar producers, which in turn puts downward pressure on prices. However, Panamax and Supramax shipments have not dropped significantly because Brazilian soybean exports will eventually be replaced by a corn export programme in the third quarter.
With Brazil being the world’s top sugarcane producer, strength in its currency is normally bullish for sugar prices. For this reason, sugar traders should be wary of additional weakness in the commodity’s future price in the near term. Class action lawsuits against cane growers have proliferated in recent years, and the pushback again in Florida’s cane sugar industry is gaining momentum. To say that sugar’s road this year has been a bumpy one would be a gross understatement.
Currencies
Even Dollar General’s direct competitor, Dollar Tree (DLTR) is experiencing the same “higher average ticket” vs. “traffic for DLTR being down” phenomenon. Dollar The dollar finally broke above 93.50, with the next big stop around 94. Davidson cuts target price to $24 from $32, due to the company s light billings, a decline in net dollar retention, and disappointing customer growth. Compared to many of its peers across the market cap spectrum, Dollar General is trading at a very reasonable forward earnings multiple.
Dollar General has already been seeing higher-than-normal average basket size even though customer traffic was down over the prior period in Q2-20. There are 4 reasons why I think Dollar General is a compelling buy at this price point – or as low as the ongoing sell-off will allow. Dollar General has quickly ramped up its digital channel and is already seeing results from the DG Pickup initiative, which I discuss in the next section.
Inform your strategy Brexit The British pound has dropped 2.5% against the dollar this week as investors again become concerned about the direction talks with the EU are taking. Liquidity is now abundant, U.S. dollar funding pressures have abated, and capital markets have willingly received record issuance from the investment grade corporate sector. One such player in the retail segment is Dollar General Corporation (DG), which dropped down to near $193 from its recent high of $204+.
Dollar General has already been seeing higher-than-normal average basket size even though customer traffic was down over the prior period in Q2-20. There are 4 reasons why I think Dollar General is a compelling buy at this price point – or as low as the ongoing sell-off will allow. Dollar General has quickly ramped up its digital channel and is already seeing results from the DG Pickup initiative, which I discuss in the next section.
Inform your strategy Brexit The British pound has dropped 2.5% against the dollar this week as investors again become concerned about the direction talks with the EU are taking. Liquidity is now abundant, U.S. dollar funding pressures have abated, and capital markets have willingly received record issuance from the investment grade corporate sector. One such player in the retail segment is Dollar General Corporation (DG), which dropped down to near $193 from its recent high of $204+.
Metals
For instance, as we were talking Barrick Gold was up for the day as the price of gold and silver went up. In 2002 when gold was $300 per ounce, MAM recommended to its investors to put 50% of their investment assets into physical gold stored outside the banking system. During the pullback, one of the hardest-hit miners has been Harmony Gold (HMY), a South-African producer that’s seen nearly $2.00 shaved off its share price since late July. Even with the recent volatility in prices, gold and silver remain among the best performing commodities this year to combat the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
Ultimately, I believe that the estimates of $0.96 in FY2021 are achievable, but prolonged weakness in the gold price below $1,750/oz would likely lead to a significant miss. (Source: Company Presentation) Harmony Gold released its FY2020 operational results last month and had a disappointing year across the board with significant headwinds from COVID-19.
9, 2020 9:45 AM ETby: Tim WorstallTim Worstall Tech, Banks, gold & precious metals, natural resourcesContinental TelegraphSummarySoftbank has been buying up vast volumes of call options on tech stocks.
Since then, the stock is down over 20% and is one of the worst-performing gold stocks over the past 30 trading days. The GoldSwitzerland Division was created to facilitate the buying and storage of physical gold and silver for private investors, companies, trusts and pension funds. Domestic gold prices edged lower today, declining for the fourth day in five days.
Ultimately, I believe that the estimates of $0.96 in FY2021 are achievable, but prolonged weakness in the gold price below $1,750/oz would likely lead to a significant miss. (Source: Company Presentation) Harmony Gold released its FY2020 operational results last month and had a disappointing year across the board with significant headwinds from COVID-19.
9, 2020 9:45 AM ETby: Tim WorstallTim Worstall Tech, Banks, gold & precious metals, natural resourcesContinental TelegraphSummarySoftbank has been buying up vast volumes of call options on tech stocks.
Since then, the stock is down over 20% and is one of the worst-performing gold stocks over the past 30 trading days. The GoldSwitzerland Division was created to facilitate the buying and storage of physical gold and silver for private investors, companies, trusts and pension funds. Domestic gold prices edged lower today, declining for the fourth day in five days.
Oil
Oil prices are coming back as traders get back at it and get serious after a seasonal and fear-based drop in prices. We also write daily and weekly reports, covering key variables in U.S. natural gas market (supply, demand, storage, prices and more). Prisoners Sought for Palm Oil in Labor Crunch Covid crisis has Malaysia s palm oil industry looking for local workers. The volatility in crude oil and gasoline prices has been clearly reflected in recent years in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).
Source: Bluegold Research estimates and calculations This week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration should report a larger change in natural gas storage compared to the previous week. The oil and gas pipeline operator pulled the plug on its 450,000-barrels-per-day Midland to ECHO 4 expansion project in Texas. Oil futures clawed back some of the losses they sustained in the previous session. Oil prices are also tentatively stabilizing after a four-day slide that took the October WTI contract from almost $43 to near $36.
The Dallas-based pipeline operator plans to roughly double the amount of crude oil that can flow through the 570,000-barrel-per-day Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL). The Saudi oil price cut also played into demand fears.
Source: Bluegold Research estimates and calculations This week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration should report a larger change in natural gas storage compared to the previous week. The oil and gas pipeline operator pulled the plug on its 450,000-barrels-per-day Midland to ECHO 4 expansion project in Texas. Oil futures clawed back some of the losses they sustained in the previous session. Oil prices are also tentatively stabilizing after a four-day slide that took the October WTI contract from almost $43 to near $36.
The Dallas-based pipeline operator plans to roughly double the amount of crude oil that can flow through the 570,000-barrel-per-day Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL). The Saudi oil price cut also played into demand fears.
United States
Four years ago, conventional wisdom said a Trump win would create policy uncertainty and be bad for equity markets – today, markets are at record highs. )Three trading days is all it took for the Nasdaq-100 index to slide from a record high into correction territory amid a massive sell-off in the tech sector. Perhaps people are unaware of the Fed’s 2% inflation target or that “experienced” inflation runs consistently higher than reported inflation.
It does illustrate the false comfort we gain when telling ourselves a bear market can’t happen since the economy is strong, inflation is moribund, and the Fed is accommodative.” The first awakening came from a Wall Street Journal article (“ESG Investing Shines in Market Turmoil, With Help From Big Tech,” May 12, 2020). On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite fell again, taking the total drop since last week’s peak to 10%—so-called correction territory. Putting it in perspective: Video-conferencing company Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) showed 355% growth during the coronavirus pandemic, while Slack may also be having a tough time competing with Microsoft Teams (NASDAQ:MSFT).
With the US economy still reeling from COVID-19, future growth rests heavily on government spending to replace lost household income. The Fed became not only a lender of last resort but also a buyer of last resort. Every little tweak in the Fed’s policy statement on inflation and its impact on official rates triggers almost an instant reaction on the part of investors.
It does illustrate the false comfort we gain when telling ourselves a bear market can’t happen since the economy is strong, inflation is moribund, and the Fed is accommodative.” The first awakening came from a Wall Street Journal article (“ESG Investing Shines in Market Turmoil, With Help From Big Tech,” May 12, 2020). On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite fell again, taking the total drop since last week’s peak to 10%—so-called correction territory. Putting it in perspective: Video-conferencing company Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) showed 355% growth during the coronavirus pandemic, while Slack may also be having a tough time competing with Microsoft Teams (NASDAQ:MSFT).
With the US economy still reeling from COVID-19, future growth rests heavily on government spending to replace lost household income. The Fed became not only a lender of last resort but also a buyer of last resort. Every little tweak in the Fed’s policy statement on inflation and its impact on official rates triggers almost an instant reaction on the part of investors.
China
It does not seem that the high food prices were the main deterrent to more aggressive PBOC policy, so today’s CPI is unlikely to change the outlook. At the same time, Australians doing business in China say the risks are manageable despite rising tensions between Beijing and Canberra. The conflict between Washington and Beijing has come to the fore again.
Europe
In an extraordinary statement yesterday, a U.K. minister admitted that Boris Johnson’s government will break international law in its attempts to re-write last year’s divorce deal. Tory lawmakers are furious at the government s admission it will break international law by overriding some parts of the separation deal Johnson signed with the EU last year. In FX the focus was on cable once again with the currency market concerned that the UK may be violating international law in its latest Brexit policy action.
While neither side is blameless, it would be an unfortunate way for the U.K.-EU trade deal to die.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government is pushing through signed with the EU last year. Getting an EU trade deal looks more vital than ever. In this regard, a Brexit trade agreement is not a panacea to the issues that the UK is currently facing. This is the sixth potential vaccine for which the EU executive has struck or plans to strike an advance purchase agreement. If the U.K. carries out its threat to break a Brexit treaty obligation, the damage will be incalculable, writes Bloomberg Opinion’s Therese Raphael.
Moreover, many businesses have now made contingency plans for Brexit or relocated a significant portion of its operations.
0 While neither side is blameless, it would be an unfortunate way for the U.K.-EU trade deal to die.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government is pushing through signed with the EU last year. Getting an EU trade deal looks more vital than ever. In this regard, a Brexit trade agreement is not a panacea to the issues that the UK is currently facing. This is the sixth potential vaccine for which the EU executive has struck or plans to strike an advance purchase agreement. If the U.K. carries out its threat to break a Brexit treaty obligation, the damage will be incalculable, writes Bloomberg Opinion’s Therese Raphael.
Moreover, many businesses have now made contingency plans for Brexit or relocated a significant portion of its operations.
