Close: London Session | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture September 18, 2020

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Agriculture

Corn prices have gone up due to crop losses and farmers will get more money for the corn they do harvest. Cocoa Votes | The world’s top cocoa producers are considering boosting what they pay growers, hoping it may sway voters in upcoming elections. The estimate released September 11th places the value of the lost corn crop based on yields and price before the storm around $344 million. Sugar prices at the Vashi wholesale market ruled mixed, while naka and mill tender rates lost ₹10 a quintal on Friday.
An New York police union leader seemed to show his support with a Q coffee mug.The tech platforms have begun taking QAnon on directly. Most-active soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were up 0.7% Friday at about $10.35 a bushel, their highest level since May 2018. In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 377 which is 1 ¾ of a cent higher. Soybean prices have risen more than 15% since the start of August.
A cocoa producer in Ivory Coast. The Bombay Sugar Merchants Association spot rates (₹/quintal): S-grade 3,272 – 3,372 and M-grade 3,386 – 3,502.

Currencies

Similarly, the Dollar weakness at the time, coupled with talk about currency wars, did nothing to diminish the dollar’s dominance. Invariably, whenever the dollar shows weakness, commentators abound who forecast the demise of the Dollar as the anchor currency of the global monetary system. Since the dollar started weakening, the Bank of China has allowed the Yuan to strengthen against the dollar, thereby reversing some of the tariff-offsetting exchange rate moves.
One aspect of the recent Dollar weakness that we find particularly surprising is the weakness of the Dollar against the Chinese Yuan. A faster pace of reopening in Canada may have boosted Canada’s dollar vs. the U.S. dollar since March. On the other side are Euro or Yuan bulls, who believe the Euro or the Chinese currency will replace the Dollar as the world’s reserve currency. In absolute terms, Dollar holdings by foreign central banks have increased from $4.7 trillion in Q3 2015 to $6.8 trillion at the end of Q1 2020.
With the official jawboning about the euro, and Brexit complicating sterling, the yen may have become the preferred way for short-term participants to express dollar bearish sentiment. At the same time, the weak Dollar helps to boost U.S. exports and create jobs, just in time for the election. Central bank reserve data can be interpreted in a way that supports the view of a decline of the Dollar.

Metals

The Royal Canadian Mint sells 10 oz, 100 oz, and kilo silver bars besides its Silver Maples and various other official silver coins and numismatics. Given silver’s historical volatility, a question dawned on me: could silver log a similar runaway price advance in the not-too-distant future? Last year 36.2 million ounces of silver went to coins and bars, below its long-term average, and the price rose a modest 15%. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored.
Meanwhile, as mentioned, some commodity prices have resumed higher this week, suggesting that gold and silver could follow suit. Both have since pulled back, but despite silver’s strong performance this year, Tesla has gained almost eight times more in price. The top three official mints sold a great deal of retail silver bullion products in the first half of 2020. Investment demand has changed in a big way this year, and the spike sent silver on a relentless surge, rising 145% from its March low to August high.
While the amount of silver that is refined into coins and bars fluctuates every year, only 6.15% of total above-ground holdings are estimated to be in investment form.
Regardless, if we look at the first half of 2020, here is the increase in silver bullion products from these top three official mints.

Oil

The rise in U.S. oil production has made the country far less reliant on oil imports, but the country is still a net importer of crude oil. He also was part of the most massive global oil production cut in history that has brought oil prices back-up to more respectable levels. Shipments of light cycle oil (LCO) and mixed aromatics have added to China’s gasoline and diesel stocks, which have swelled recently due to record volumes of crude oil processing. Moreover, natural gas was replacing coal in power generation, and the market was looking forward to shipments of liquefied natural gas to consumers beyond the pipeline network.
Short oil traders beware because you live in Lala Land, and if you think that being short oil is ok, then go ahead and make my day. Poor distillate consumption and margins are weighing on refiners demand for crude, in turn hampering efforts by OPEC+ to rebalance the oil market and push crude prices higher. BP Plc is probably the first oil major that has made concrete plans for the end of oil or at least the shrinking of its role.
Crude Value Insights offers you an investing service and community focused on oil and natural gas. Kosmos Energy Ltd. is a full-cycle, deepwater independent oil & gas exploration and production company focused along the Atlantic margin. BP plans to cut its oil and gas output by about 40% over the next decade and increase its renewable energy generation capacity twentyfold.

United States

UPS said last week it would hire more than 100,000 workers for the winter holiday season, as delivery networks are taxed by pandemic-fueled online shopping. Asked by CNN if he would campaign for Trump, Branstad said he would, if asked. Reports from late last night suggested that Beijing would be comfortable with the TikTok-Oracle-White House deal, so long as TikTok’s content-recommendation algorithm isn’t transferred to the US. The Fed announced that interest rates would remain unchanged near zero and they expect them to stay there for the foreseeable future.
The Wall Street Journal had earlier reported workers would leave in two phases – by the end of 2020 and mid-2021. While national polls show Biden ahead of Trump by 7 percentage points, as of Wednesday, most polls in major swing states show no clear or definitive winner. “Starting next week my administration is committing an additional $13B in relief to help farmers recover from the China virus,” President Trump announced a campaign rally in Mosinee, Wisconsin.
Equities are erasing early session losses as major stock indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq turn positive shortly following the New York opening bell. Read the view UBS-Credit Suisse deal would be too clever by half The former s Chairman Axel Weber may be mulling a merger with his Swiss rival. Meanwhile, ByteDance apparently has agreed to have a TikTok Global IPO in the US next year, and reports suggest that Beijing will go along with the deal.

China

While Beijing has asserted its right to block the sale of critical technologies, asking not to be identified discussing a private deal. The PBOC has asked banks to sacrifice USD$212 billion in profits in 2020 to finance affordable loans to companies. Beijing says it supports the $18 billion Covax initiative but hasn t revealed whether it will fund it. If this report is accurate, ByteDance founder Zhang Yiminghas must simply retain control of TikTok’s core algorithm, and Beijing will sign off.
Beijing’s aim is the property market should be about having a place to live, not a speculative investment opportunity.
less Former Iowa Governor and outgoing US ambassador to China Terry Branstad had some harsh words for his one-time friend, Chinese President Xi Jinping. But Beijing is apparently attempting to lay down .

Europe

He threatened to veto a transatlantic trade deal if Prime Minister Boris Johnson breaks his Brexit deal with the EU. The EU seems to be putting an emphasis on their past relationship, but the United Kingdom wants to exercise its sovereign rights. The deal, for all 27 EU countries, covers the purchase of 300 million doses. It seems that EU officials are waiting to see the text of the modified bill – or perhaps holding their criticism before it turns into law.
The legislation knowingly violates the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement that PM Johnson signed with the EU last year. The agreement is the second such deal struck by the European Union. Another major risk facing the U.K. economy relates to the post-Brexit trade discussions between the U.K. and the EU, which have recently soured. Johnson has stated the UK has the right to override the agreement, claiming the EU had not acted in “good faith” amid threats to block food imports. That extra bureaucracy will make it difficult to maintain the current level of (free) trade between the United Kingdom and the EU which has benefited both economies.
The sloppy poisoning of Alexey Navalny turns Merkel against Putin.Europe’s stuck-in-a-rut stock market could be there all year.Currency that never gains gets central bank lifeline.

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