Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture August 03, 2020



Investing.com Follow Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), the international coffee chain, has seen its businesses turned upside down by the global coronavirus outbreak and worldwide lockdowns. Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), the international coffee chain, has seen its businesses turned upside down by the global coronavirus outbreak and worldwide lockdowns. While spending more time at home hurts writing, it leads to more appliance purchases as consumers cook more, have to make coffee at home etc.
Newell’s brands like Mr. Coffee and Crock-Pot are winners in this environment. Outright buying appetite from North Asian LNG end-users has been muted, amid comfortable inventories and relatively mild weather in the region.


USD price action stumbled across several major and emerging market currency pairs throughout July, but US Dollar weakness was noteworthy against its Euro and Australian Dollar peers in particular. That’s likely to remain the case until the fall becomes a crash, which I don’t think will begin until the Dollar Index breaks 80. The US Dollar is coming off its worst month of performance since April 2011 after a steep 4% slide lower in the DXY Index. ” At its current rate of decline that level could be breached before year-end, No one seems worried about the falling dollar.
Source: Bloomberg Biggest 2-day jump in the dollar since early June (though it started to give back some gains after Europe closed… This was primarily due to a steep drop in gross dollar volume and in processed transactions. This has threatened the Greenback’s King Dollar title, as a bearish trend begins to emerge with the broader DXY Index perched about 10% below March’s swing high.
While the dollar continues to fall, gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies are all going up. According to Schiff, gold will supplant the dollar because the euro and other currencies are not ready to take its place. Plus the advantage of a relatively weak Canadian dollar brightens the future profitability outlook considerably. The Euro enjoyed one of its best periods since the coronavirus pandemic outbreak. The Euro as we know it just entered one of the most important weeks in its history, and cautious traders already took some chips off the table.
However if it does, and it provides a final say on the proportionality matter, the risk is that the Euro will fall off a cliff. The APP or the Asset Purchase Program which started in 2015 is at the core of the Euro’s recent troubles.


However, capital loss from jurisdiction risk can also pose a risk.I’ve recently started dissecting various silver and gold mining ETFs to break down their jurisdictions for investors. Also, some sectors like gold, silver, mining/GSMs are very likely to outperform most (80%-90%) of non-GSM stocks, in my view. Silver moves extremely fast, so I would not be surprised to see $50-$60 silver prices within the next 12-18 months. From a high level, the answer to that question is the same answer for why you invest in gold and silver in the first place.
As silver prices continue to rise, keep in mind that we will start to see some outperformance from the marginal silver producers. Silver, Gold and the NASDAQ have been the three best performers while at the bottom of the leaderboard Brent, WTI and European Banks are all down at least 34%. I also like Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) which is a gold and silver streamer. We have an allocation of roughly 28% in GSMs right now given the promising potential going forward in the gold and silver ming space.
Just as one example, I would expect its stock to perform very well relative to others in this list if silver prices continue on this trajectory.
When governments are unstable, and the economic system is unstable, then gold becomes the answer to fiat currency problems for individuals and potentially for governments as well. Gold and Silver has been observed as a true, sound currency for thousands of years. Once gold breaks out decisively above $2,000, there are no points of resistance, so I suspect a relatively quick melt up to around $2,250-2,500 before year end is likely.
Silver we see is consolidating here, very likely before its next move major higher. I also like MAG Silver for its strong prospects from its Juanicipio joint venture with Fresnillo (OTCPK:FNLPF). The bullish breakout in gold has continued, as last week finally saw the yellow metal push up to a fresh all-time-high. To share some of my specific thoughts, I prefer Pan American Silver although it has had an incredible run of late. “However, there’s no silver bullet at the moment and there might never be,” Dr. Tedros said.
Gold continues to look extremely attractive here.


Therefore this natural gas producer, which formerly focused on dry gas production, has now moved to liquids-rich gas production. If oil prices are below $50/bbl by October, then US oil production will be closer to ~10.3 mb/d. These dismal numbers were the direct consequence of sharply lower oil and natural gas price realizations and dwindling refining product margins. With valuations still completely disconnected with oil market fundamentals, we think investors should be positioned to take advantage of the oil bull market.
The natural gas industry has had an unusually long decline as a consequence of the growth of the unconventional oil business. Crude Value Insights offers you an investing service and community focused on oil and natural gas. The average sales price of natural gas was $0.81 per thousand cubic feet in second quarter 2020, up from $0.68 in last year’s second quarter. Then again, gas prices have hit levels continuously lower long after the natural gas industry would have begun to recover.
Today’s big move suggests the downside price pressure is dissipating and a new bullish price trend may push natural gas prices above $2.85 quickly. Low prices in the first quarter saw Chinese oil buyers go mad with the credit card, meaning that in the second quarter China’s crude imports have been roofing. The current, deeper, price bottom near $1.43 represents a very deep rotational bottom in natural gas, and the current upside price move may just be starting.
But for Oil & Gas Value Research members, they get it first and they get analysis on some companies that is not published on the free site.
On May 29, we published a report titled “U.S. Oil Production Rebound Off The Lows With May To Average 10 Mb/D.” I have focused on the oil and gas industry for many years. EIA 914 came out with a report indicating US oil production dropped massively in May, down to ~10 mb/d. But the shale oil of yesterday is exactly that, and the forward growth trajectory will be materially impacted as we have max growth around ~75k b/d now. However, the collapse in oil prices caused by coronavirus-driven demand destruction brought Algerian imports back in the money in July.
The trajectory for year end depends in part on how fast oil prices recover by Q4. Algerian flows fell on an annual basis early this year, as they became uneconomical due to strong oil prices. Once September arrives, natural gas prices may begin another upside move, pushing well above the $3.50 level.

United States

T2 Biosystems, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTOO) is a ~$200 million market cap healthcare company whose share price has exploded in the last few months. One would think that would be enough incentive for the Trump administration to be sure that the Postal Service is fully prepared for Election Day. The true market price – the one containing the information – would be the price in the absence of that QE and the Fed balance sheet. While these stocks represent less than 5% of available stocks, their market cap exceeds $19 trillion out of the approximately $33 trillion (57.6%) of the US stock exchanges.
He argued that because the purchase would send money into China, the US should receive money in return, though it’s unclear how such an arrangement would work. Of course, since Wall Street does not make fees on investors holding cash, maybe there is another reason they are so adamant that you remain invested all the time. The “conspiracy theory” is to suggest that Trump could actually halt or delay the election.
For the Fed and BOE, the markets would probably look to price negative policy rates more aggressively, and lots more QE. He maintains that he violated campaign finance rules under the direction of Mr Trump in order to influence the 2016 election — an allegation that the president denies. In contrast, the Fed began the largest expansion of its balance sheet at this market’s peak in mid-February. Through the trough in March of 2009, the Fed’s balance sheet grew just over $1 trillion or $7.7bn per day.
It is no surprise — and no sign of a conspiracy — that Trump might suggest something outrageous, such as a delayed election, on Twitter. Which appears to be precisely what the Fed wants: another tsunami of liquidity following a second self-inflicted suicide of the economy. Roughly 60 million people have been tested for coronavirus in the US, with a nearly 9 per cent positivity rate, according to the CDC. Trump objected that a shift to mail-in voting will cause delays and challenges after Election Day.
That’s going to change the price a bit – in fact, that’s why the Fed owns them, to change the price.
Causality is difficult to establish, but Kailash believes much of Nasdaq’s manic run is simply a wall of money chasing what was already racing higher. The population of this unique segment is approximately 330 stocks out of more than 7,800 stocks across the US stock exchanges. Northwestern University professor Steven Calabresi wrote a column for The New York Times calling for Trump’s immediate impeachment over his question. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin issued a video call today for more free money.


The trust in the European project surged to unprecedented levels since the EU Summit deal laid the foundation for common debt issuance. For the ECB, QE expectations would also ramp higher, and lower policy rates could not be ruled out either. The Bundesbank’s President, Jens Weidman, must respond to the German constitutional court ruling that some of the ECB asset purchases were “illegal”. If the ECB did not respect proportionality, then the Bundesbank participation in the APP program was illegal.