Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture August 07, 2020



Ukrainian consultancy Pro Agro raised their estimates on corn exports to 1.311 billion bushels, due to a better than expected harvest. Ben Potter with Farm Progress reported corn basis bids ticked a penny higher at an Illinois River terminal and held steady across the Midwest. In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 323 ¼ which is a ½ of a cent lower. China continues to draw down on the states corn resources with another auction.


In this video I go over what extreme measures politically it would take for the US dollar to lose its reserve its currency. There is also a slight correlation with the performance of the US currency in the dollar index (DXY), but this is rather a reflection of performance against the euro. Recent US dollar weakness has resulted in appreciation of the Swiss franc. The US dollar has not been this low against the Swiss franc for the last five years, moving in a range from 1.02 to 0.94.
But I think that the thousand dollar milestones are going to start dropping like dominoes here. Euro strength is correlated with dollar weakness. The firm’s net dollar retention rate was 118% and 113% for the nine months ended May 31, 2019 and 2020, respectively. This clearly shows that US dollar weakness has become more pronounced. The US dollar has recently weakened against the Swiss franc. I think that’s what’s going to happen soon to people who are in the dollar.
VIAC has a current EPS of $3.84 per roughly $27 dollar share and a forward PE of 6.77.


You can buy gold and silver at SchiffGold.” Peter said the only thing that really surprised him about $2,000 gold is that it took so long to get here. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. Some would say silver (and gold) is a Giffen Good – consumption rises as price rises. >> Fabrice Drouin Ristori on Twitter is an independent investment analyst and studies the gold and silver market and their future role in the international monetary system.
All told, gold’s positive convexity means that investors’ gains will be amplified if real rates fall and their losses will be limited if rates rise. So, if you think gold is going to keep rising until real interest rates go positive, you should be buying it with both hands. He follows regularly since 1970 the gold, silver and foreign exchange markets. Fabrice shares his thoughts on the economy, stock markets, geopolitics, gold and silver.
He follows and analyzes the gold and silver markets since 2008. They are doing well, but they are nowhere near their 2011 highs even though the price of gold is higher than it was at that peak. Gold has been on a tear this year, having surged 35% in response to a 120-basis point slump in real interest rates. Also, while there are many factors that play into the price of gold, I studied the effect of only changes in real yields to isolate their impact.
To measure duration, I took into account the value of gold against real rates, as delineated by the path of linker bonds in the U.S., over the past decade. .” In reality, gold is the only asset that’s not in a bubble because of negative real interest rates. Silver has gone along for the ride with gold. The question that’s on everybody’s mind: did the price move on August 4 occur with rising scarcity or rising abundance of silver to the market? He said that kind of nervousness is exactly what he wants to see in a gold bull market.
Given that gold has a longer duration than linkers, the metal offers a balance sheet-economical way to hedge against inflation.
Should it play out, the study indicates gold may be propelled toward $3,000 should real yields slump to -3.15%. This morning on my SRSrocco Report Twitter Feed, I posted the following Tweet: DON’T THINK TECHNICALS MATTER… LOL The silver price bounced twice off the long-term monthly $27.50 level.


According to some, U.S. onshore oil production shed as much as 2 million bpd when the double blow of the Saudi-Russian price war and the coronavirus pandemic struck. It is holding two different grades of crude oil, natural gas, and two refined products. In the first half of the year, 23 shale oil companies in the U.S. filed for bankruptcy protection, with a collective debt loan of over $30 billion. Revenues have been steadily declining due to the decline in coal energy production and low natural gas and renewable prices.
For example, here’s the level of natural gas production using the latest information provided by the EIA. The EPA’s Mercury and Air Toxic Standards (“MATS”) requires that coal and oil EGUs in the U.S. remove 90% of mercury from emissions. This relationship of declining production is not just limited to natural gas. I’m concerned about IR’s leverage to the oil/gas vertical over the next year or two, as I expect weaker spending in the upstream market and project delays in downstream.
Emerson is doing well on cost-cutting, but expectations for a quick rebound in upstream and downstream oil/gas capex investment likely need to be tempered. In the compressor business, IR actually has a broader product offering now than Atlas, but IR really needs to improve its oil-free compressor portfolio and its service offerings/attachments. For example, crude runs have slowly increased following the lockdowns of late spring. There is no doubt that 2020 has been one of the most traumatic years in the history of crude markets.
Longer term, Emerson still has positive leverage to greenfield opportunities like LNG export. according to oil-field services company Baker Hughes.

United States

“Tomorrow, I’m meeting with the president of Mexico,” the US president said on Tuesday in a striking change from his candidacy and the early years of his presidency. President Donald Trump has signed an executive order mandating that certain “essential” drugs and medical supplies purchased by the government be manufactured from within the US. The Trump administration claims that these apps could pass data on US citizens back to the Chinese government.
Mr Evanina says that China and Iran prefer that president Donald Trump does not win re-election; while Russia is seeking to hurt former vice president Joe Biden’s electoral chances. Sharing the full story, not just the headlines Download now Congressional Democrats were pushing for $1 trillion in relief, but the Donald Trump administration opposed. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said when Mr Trump was ready to offer at least $1 trillion the Democrats would be ready to negotiate again. Trump administration officials and Republicans in Congress are continuing to suggest that the man accused of murdering a federal protective services officer was linked to racial justice protests.
Jerry Nadler, the House Judiciary Committee Chairman, said the ruling undermined the “wall of impunity that President Trump has tried to build for himself”.
A number of Trump administration officials and Republicans have continued to suggest that Mr Carrillo was affiliated with the nationwide George Floyd protests, Talking Point Memo first reported. However, congressional Democrats view the ruling as a win, as it confirms that they can win in federal courts that have been packed by judges appointed by Mr Trump.
It argued that courts should stay out of battles that can be considered largely political and allow lawmakers and legislation to compel actions from the Trump administration. Wall payments or no wall payments, the contrast between candidate Trump’s statements and those of President Trump in 2020 are staggering. Major parts of how he warmed US-Mexico relations were vintage Trump: a trade pact and tens of thousands of Mexican troops deployed to the two countries’ border.
Three months ago management and Wall Street were reluctant to be specific about the second quarter and beyond, given the virus and the uncertainties. Big US stocks rocketed higher despite this global pandemic ravaging the US economy, which collapsed by a third in annualized terms! This is probable even if the US stock markets have not only recovered from the March lows but have reached new highs. The US Justice Department – which is representing Mr Trump and his administration – opposed the appeals court’s ruling.
Only 23% of electricity production in the U.S. in 2019 was coal generated according to the US Energy Information Administration. The latest broad market rally has pushed the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index to new record highs above the 11,000 milestone. The Trump administration has claimed that “WeChat automatically captures vast swathes of information from its users.


GSX Techedu Inc. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People’s Republic of China.


Pro-Brexit supporters celebrating in Parliament Square, after the UK left the European Union on 31 January. Boris Johnson has authorised the payment of a quarter of a million pounds in “compensation” to Britain’s outgoing top civil servant after he stepped down in mysterious circumstances. Mr Frost is currently the prime minister’s chief EU negotiator.