Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture August 10, 2020



Some may also expect higher inflation supported by ongoing QE and/or higher import prices supported by the depreciating dollar. As BofA notes, the recent bearish dollar move has been driven by expectations of deterioration in US data relative to external data. The recent drop to the $100 support level provides a great entry point for investors looking to dollar-cost averaging at a discount. Overall, the nominal/real rate and dollar dynamics are likely better suited to explain the recent rise in breakevens.
Morgan Stanley analysts noted on Friday that the U.S. dollar (DXY, 0.24%) index was the most oversold since 1978 and trading 3.6 standard deviations below its twelvemonth average. The $100 support level represents a great entry point for new investors and an opportunity to dollar-cost averaging at a discount. For example, for realtor Redfin, I used the dollar value of existing home sales. Speculators are still net short sterling and the Canadian dollar.
Being out of the dollar since has been the right call. For discussion, please see Nonsense from the WSJ on Gold vs the Dollar. Confident dollar bears are ubiquitous today for sure. The Legacy US Dollar Index COTs are in the ICE Futures U.S. Group. The dollar had a bounce. The dollar is down, but is it out? Alteryx reported a dollar-based net expansion rate of 126%, which is a more than healthy number by industry standards. Only the euro stands out in terms of extreme positioning.


Newmont Goldcorp is amongst my long term selected gold miners with Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD), Agnico Eagle (NYSE:AEM), Kirkland Lake Gold (NYSE:KL). At a $2,500 gold price and a GSR of 65, the silver price would be around $38.50, which is my suggested target price for now. 10, 2020 2:00 PM ET|| About: Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD)by: SA TranscriptsThe following slide deck was published by Barrick Gold Corporation in conjunction with their 2020 Q2 earnings call.
The true silver bull tends to be more fanatical about the metal than the most ardent gold bull, and the price tends to swing accordingly. Gold production was much lower this quarter with The total gold equivalent for 2Q’20 was . The total gold equivalent for 2Q’20 was 1,373 GEOs.NEM is one of my preferred long term gold miners. Probably 60% of silver demand is industrial but it still has a tendency to follow on gold’s coattails, but in a much more volatile pattern. For a discussion of gold Cot positions please see Gold Soars to New High Above $2000 While Managed Money Sat it Out.
The producers don’t buy gold and the swap dealers are hedged (long gold and short equivalent futures). The big metal ETFs, GLD for gold and SLV for silver are the easiest way of investing in the metals themselves. The fundamental drivers for gold as well as the supply of gold and Bitcoin are also widely misunderstood. Of other silver mining stocks, Coeur Mining (CDE) has risen around 50% in the past month and Pan American Silver (PAAS) could be worth a gamble.
The higher price of gold compensated for lower production.Gold production was much lower this quarter with 1,255k Au Oz. The exciting element is that the third-quarter results will be unusually high, and revenue should be much higher, with the gold price now well above per ounce. Thus silver has always tended to be a riskier investment than gold – so perhaps not for the proverbial widows and orphans. Source: Bloomberg While gold ended modestly lower after a morning surge above $2060 (futs), silver, copperm and crude all managed solid gains…
Our advice therefore is sell general equities and stick with gold and silver and associated stocks.
For example, on December 27, Tom McClellan said “Gold COT Data Call for More of a Drop” Gold was at the $1500 level. In the case of silver, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) is already generating substantial investor attention as a streaming stock which initially concentrated on silver plays. Newmont Goldcorp’s attributable gold production sank year over year to Au Million ounces in the second quarter.


— Sir John Templeton I have been bullish on dry natural gas prices and natural gas equities for a long time. Dry natural gas prices themselves, are up 2.3% YTD, so clearly the natural gas equities are outperforming. For comparison purposes, SPY is up 5.0% YTD, dry natural gas prices are higher by 2.3% (shown earlier), and the United States Natural Gas Fund is down 24.0% YTD. Of all the commodity subsectors in 2020, outside of crude oil prices, dry natural gas prices have been under perhaps the most pressure.
Corp shares gained 18.3%, CNX Resources (CNX) shares gained 14.9% last week, and Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) shares gained 10.1% last week. Crude Value Insights offers you an investing service and community focused on oil and natural gas. One of the most recent examples was Berkshire’s decision earlier this year to acquire the natural gas transmission and storage business owned by (D). In an interview with Fox Business host Lou Dobbs earlier this month, the president said of the Democratic Party: “They’re against oil and gas.
It appears that this is putting pressure on emerging market equities as indicated by a spike in the VXEEM Index and modest uptick in expected crude oil volatility. Stronger gas demand from the region’s industrial and LNG export facilities this month has also supported the rally. Why would we want to pour gasoline on that fire by creating even higher prices because of debasing the currency?” Peter called the policy absurd.
The last time India witnessed negative growth in oil demand was in 2001. Some petroleum ministry officials say India’s oil demand is unlikely to reach pre-COVID-19 levels at least until March 2021. Run rates at Indian Oil Corp., the country’s largest state-run refiner, have fallen to 75%, from as high as 93% in the first week of July. Meanwhile, the US imposed sanctions that restricted Iranian oil exports and disrupted the nation’s economy.

United States

USD/JPY’s inability to rise despite Friday’s better jobs report and President Trump’s weekend executive orders is a sign that FX traders still think the US recovery is losing momentum. Even before the Fed cut rates to zero and fired up the money printing press in response to coronavirus, there were already signs that inflation was running hot. SurveyMonkey 2Q20 results Source: SurveyMonkey Q2 shareholder letter SurveyMonkey’s revenue grew 21% y/y to $90.9 million, beating Wall Street’s expectations of $89.1 million (+19% y/y) by a two-point margin.
Joe Biden, the former vice president and the presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, has said Mr Trump is America’s first racist president. Further small business weakness could threaten the recoveries of both the US labor market and large-cap revenue growth. Mr Trump also last week, in an interview with Axios, refused to say the late Congressman John Lewis, who was injured during Civil Rights Era protests, was a hero.
Donald Trump, to his great credit, has been challenging them every step of the way but, despite at least half the country is still swayed by what journalists say.
In the short term, the company should continue to hold its position as the US market leader. This follows the Trump administration seeking to ban Chinese tech companies like TikTok and WeChat from operating in the United States due to national security concerns. Last week the US Food and Drug Administration greatly expanded its list of potentially harmful and danterous hand sanitizers, which is at. As Peter put it, one way to make sure we know that is to say, Of course, the Fed doesn’t look at the real rate of inflation.
The Fed seems confident that the markets understand its reaction function and that rates will be low for a very long time. Firstly, the authorization for financial institutions to provide custody services of cryptoassets for clients in the US has clearly shown a significant step towards wider adoption. Nominal yields have been relatively range bound in the 50-80bp range that is consistent with a Fed at the ZLB and neutral rate expectations anchored around 0% real.
less For most of us, Monday is the worst day of the week, but for the Nasdaq lately, it doesn’t get any better than Monday. It also suggests that FX traders feel the rest of world won’t be spared from the US’ troubles. Her comment came after Mr Trump again urged local officials in Portland to deploy National Guard troops into streets there to quell protests that often turn violent. However, creating a continuing bull market is quite another trick, and will need a lot more than the Fed.
In short, Powell has been very clear that the Fed is not thinking about raising rates… Pedro Pierluisi – Vazquez’s rival for the PNP nomination and the island’s former delegate to the US House – also blamed her for Sunday’s failed vote.


Plus-44 GW levels are forecast for EU-5 gas plant through September and the whole of Q4, peaking above 46 GW in November.