Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture August 12, 2020



Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better-growing conditions. In 1975, Bill began working at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as an Agricultural Specialist – trading corn, beans, wheat, cattle & hogs. General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher on speculative short-covering tied to ideas that Wheat markets were oversold. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions in both the US and Canada.
It is still dry in France and Russia and now Spring Wheat areas of Russia are being affected. The mkt was supported by another Egyptian tender & a 4% decline in the gd/ex rating of Spring Wheat! Russian Wheat is now hitting the domestic market and prices are lower. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry.


We think that the US dollar is set for a little bull retracement in the near term, which should weigh on EURUSD. We expect the US dollar to rebound slightly in the near term towards the 94.50 resistance (for the USD index), which should weigh on the EURUSD exchange rate. Why wouldn’t the Dollar drop 30-40% in coming months, if purchasing power is related to money supply? We have not witnessed a large, 10% decline over several months (and 20% over 12 months) in the U.S. Dollar Index since 2010, a decade ago.
Below you see the high correlation between precious metals pricing and the U.S. Dollar value. The latest catalyst for gold during the summer of 2020 has been a downturn in the value of paper dollar vs. other fiat currencies. A lower Dollar is extremely supportive of gold’s rising price if it continues or even accelerates. In July, I wrote an article about the growing odds of a major drop in the U.S. Dollar this year into 2021. However, we still think that the EURUSD exchange rate has potential to reach 1.20 in the coming weeks.
Historically, the Dollar Index is capable of 15-20% slides over 3-4 months, 1986-87 and 2002-03 are examples. The US Dollar has been in a free-fall & the DJI is only 1500 points off its pre-COVID highs! He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California.


Barrick Gold is one of the four gold miners that I consider my core long-term “gold miners” with Newmont (NEM), Agnico Eagle (AEM), and Kirkland Lake Gold (KL). Therefore, while grades were down from 9.0 grams per tonne gold to 8.2 grams per tonne gold, gold production didn’t drop much over year-over-year, offset by the higher throughput. The price of gold has continued to appreciate, and I believe Q3 will have a gold price above $1,900 per ounce. The company’s fundamentals will not change the fact, and if gold retrace, Barrick Gold stock will start to deflate to a more reasonable value.
It is crucial to use about 40% of the total capital invested for trading GOLD short term in light of the extreme volatility of the gold industry. Adjusting for underreported CPI is a fool’s errand when valuing gold, and many articles in the mainstream financial press are reporting $2800-3000 gold would be an all-time high. Barrick Gold’s total gold production in 2Q’20 was .
Gold had so far a huge run-up, and gold miners were very popular amongst investors eager to find a safe investment. Source: Barrick Gold Image: Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine complex. The Toronto-based Barrick Gold (GOLD) released its second-quarter of 2020 results on August 10, 2020. In fact, given the boost from higher gold (GLD) prices, the company reported record quarterly revenue, operating cash flows, and all-in sustaining cost margins. At this morning’s $1900 price per ounce, gold is STILL undervalued long term.
Like gold and silver, the recent increase in ETF demand for platinum should support the NYMEX platinum price into the year-end, thereby exerting upward pressure on PLTM.
(Source: Company Presentation) Roxgold released its Q2 results this week and reported quarterly gold production of 32,812 ounces at all-in sustaining costs of $983/oz. In fact, adjusting for money printing and debt borrowing (representing the need for future money printing), gold’s adjusted all-time high is above $5000 an ounce! AISC (by-product basis) is still one of the lowest in the industry with per ounce in 2Q’20, which gave a profit margin based on $1,725/Oz for gold.
Over the last three months, it has even underperformed the price of gold, which we believe is an unwarranted discount for such a high-quality company. Silver’s value vs. gold, financial assets and money printing levels is still quite low. These record results were driven by a much higher gold price in Q2 of $1,712/oz vs. $1,304/oz in the year-ago period. Barrick Gold indicated a higher AISC (by-product) of now per ounce, which is still a good number.


Natural gas prices have rallied strongly over the past few weeks in the midst of a major change in gas fundamentals. It shows that during a trading month, natural gas futures start off about 1.2% above the spot price and end the month roughly at parity with the spot price. In other words, on average, UNG has underperformed the changes in natural gas by about 1.2% per month for the past decade. The cartel estimates that world-wide oil demand this year will amount to 90.6 million barrels a day, 9.1 million barrels less than last year.
This may seem like a small number because natural gas can see moves of 5-10% per day. From a balances perspective however, a collapse in production isn’t necessarily bullish natural gas. While these gains have been quite strong, it is important to note that natural gas has been declining for several months. My first reason why I believe this is the case comes from natural gas production data. WSJ explains the oil price bust that could reshape energy markets.
Hawaii’s and Nevada’s tourism industries have crashed, and states like Alaska, Oklahoma, and Wyoming have been hit by the collapse of oil markets. OPEC also said that it expects a 4% contraction in the global economy, worse than its earlier estimate of 3.7%. The troubled, leaky Moldovan-flagged vessel which carried to ammonium nitrate into Beirut port, file image. The 9.1% decline is deeper than OPEC forecast in its previous monthly report.

United States

Investing.com Follow Looking at the share price of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), it’s obvious that investors don’t expect a huge surprise in the company’s latest earnings report due today. Looking at the share price of Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), it’s obvious that investors don’t expect a huge surprise in the company’s latest earnings report due today. The surcharges are important for UPS and FedEx’s revenue streams as capacity issues arise, not just from the previous quarter, but for the upcoming holiday season.
While there are no definitive details on FedEx’s surcharges for the holiday season, UPS has already outlined the prices and volumes that will face different surcharges. In preparation for this huge influx in fulfillment from online shopping during the holiday season, UPS and FedEx are increasing surcharges for shipping. Last year, it acquired Acacia Communications (NASDAQ:ACIA), which offers products for cloud operators, for about $2.6 billion, gaining chips and machines that help translate optical signals into electronic data.
The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice.
Capacity is probably the biggest hurdle for both UPS and FedEx, as well as the USPS for the upcoming holiday season. “By trying to bury what the CDC recommends, Trump is betraying every student, teacher and parent in this country,” Ms Weingarten, who leads the 1.7 million-member teachers union, said. That changed abruptly at the end of the month, and President Trump’s executive orders fall incredibly short of addressing this new crisis.
UPS is also reportedly escalating charges for “customers [who] send 110%, 200% and 300% more shipments than their average weekly shipping volume in February.” The Fed balance sheet has nearly doubled since its Q4 2019 lows and is on its way to reach USD 12tr by the end of 2021. On the same day, Mr Trump said he disagreed with the CDC’s “very tough & expensive guidelines” and threatened to cut off funding if schools did not reopen.
But that would take a portion of business away from UPS and FedEx, as providing those options to customers takes away the need for shipping. While the president contends the US is beating the virus, Dr Fauci says the pandemic is a great danger to Americans. He also worked in the US as managing director and recently as regional president for the Asia-Pacific region. If Wall Street investors were truly bullish on platinum, its price would be double and triple the current quote. It is meant in particular to help those who borrowed in the $550 billion market for mortgages that are packaged into bonds and sold to Wall Street.
What other investments on Wall Street have a potential double as part of the equation the next 12-18 months? Joe Biden has a 71 per cent chance of beating Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to a new poll by FiveThirtyEight.


Even though the pound is still significantly undervalued, the Brexit uncertainty combined with a sudden rise in price volatility could easily send the currency back to its previous lows. This will certainly cool down growth expectations for the coming quarter, which may challenge EU leaders as we enter the fall season.