Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture August 14, 2020

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Agriculture

Strong global demand for corn and at least 300 million bushels of Iowa’s corn crop lost from the Derecho has helped corn (CORN) prices bottom. USDA reported 4,137.9 thousand metric tons in known and unknown corn sales this week, up over 1500 metric tons from this time last week. Many acres of corn were in key developmental stages when the derecho hit, and that may have impacted the plants’ continued growth. Damage Control continues to sort out this blur of what corn stalks are a total loss or what yields the damage crop can produce.
Tens of millions of bushels of stored grain in the Midwest were lost or severely damaged.Many Iowa corn plants were in key developmental stages. Rolling at freight train speed across the Midwest, on Monday, August 10th a derecho flattened corn and soybean crops. The USDA estimated that 23.4 million acres in Iowa had been seeded with corn and soybeans this spring. The worst hit state was Iowa, the country’s leading corn producer.
In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 337 ¼ which is 1 ½ of a cent lower. General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher in sympathy with the rallies in Corn and Soybeans and on a weaker US Dollar. Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better growing conditions. Corn is a $10 billion industry in Iowa. However, the soybean crop probably fared better. It is still dry in France and Russia and now Spring Wheat areas of Russia are being affected.
Russian Wheat is now hitting the domestic market and prices are lower. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions in both the US and Canada. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry.

Currencies

Foreign investment in Turkey has dropped, and the average exchange rate between the dollar and the lira fell another 11% from the first quarter to the second quarter. Printing trillions of dollars is devaluing the dollar, which also devalues assets priced in dollars, such as stocks, while real assets, such as gold, increase in value. It invites China to take advantage of this gap offered by the US dollar weakness and decline as the global reserve currency.
The dollar’s purchasing power is falling, so any other asset priced in dollars is being devalued. During the quarter, the dollar amount of R&D expense increased by $1M on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

Metals

Of course, like most things made of gold, a gold wedding mask will set you back more than a few bucks. They sold thousands of paper futures contracts representing production that does not exist, 10-to-1 in silver, to depress the price of gold and silver. For seven years, since the up-tick rule was lifted, central banks have used short selling to keep the price of gold and silver low. Family members and guests typically gift the bride with a set of gold jewelry and other pieces of gold on her wedding day.
When gold fell in March, the short-sellers could not find physical gold to cover their contracts. While gold risks to be banned at some point like it has in the past and could be confiscated by the government silver has less of a threatening history. Warren Buffett made a few big changes to Berkshire Hathaway’s equity portfolio in the second quarter, including dialing back its bank exposure and adding a gold miner stock. That was the beginning of the demise of the manipulation of the gold and silver futures markets.
It might feel tricky to enter in a volatile market and might feel overwhelming to enter at this stage of a move where Silver already more than doubled.
When in 2011 Gold had its high at US$1,920, Silver’s high was US$49.83. Now Gold traded as high as US$2,075, while Silver only reached US$29.86. The 18-karat white gold mask will be decorated with 3,600 white and black diamonds and , said designer Isaac Levy. He declined to identify I can think of one huge plus to a massively expensive gold or diamond mask. I do know this though — if you wear the gold mask below your nose, it will be totally ineffective.
But, in case that wasn’t enough for you, AP reports that a gold, diamond-encrusted face covering with a price tag of $1.5 million. Gold is transforming into a currency as this economic crisis unfolds, which is exasperated daily by the pandemic. Furthermore, consider both physical Silver acquisitions and a Silver trade. Gold offers an opportunity that’s the other side of everything else that’s happening. Gold was already an important part of Turkish wedding traditions.
The iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) as well as the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) are both up around 50% year to date too.

Oil

This distortion, as you can tell from today’s natural gas price movement, also is causing a total blowout in natural gas prices. At current oil prices, this means the company is roughly $10 per barrel above its breakeven point, allowing for healthy cash flow. The company has healthy financials and will almost without a doubt start paying dividends again as soon as oil prices normalize. Let me show you an interesting graph displaying the ratio between Marathon Oil’s stock price and the price of WTI oil.
Regardless, the company is able to generate free cash flow as soon as oil prices recover. All things considered, Marathon Oil continues to be one of my favorite oil stocks on the market. Never in the company’s history has marathon Oil been cheaper compared to oil. So whatever frenzy this squeeze is causing to underlying prices will fade, and natural gas prices will likely drop as fast as it went up. I think the company is a good buy at current prices – even if oil does not rally immediately.
In fact, we would even argue that the outlook for natural gas prices in the near term has worsened. It includes crude and natural gas pipelines, a gas utility and renewable energy generation. This hit oil demand hard as global air traffic suffered along with the impact on automotive transportation. In other words, US shale plays have never been more hated than now – even with oil back above $40. According to Marathon Oil, this is expected to normalize in the second half of 2020.
Fundamentally, nothing changed for natural gas. Source: Bloomberg WTI ended the week back above $42… And supply chain malarkey sent Lumber futures soaring to a new record high…
A great idea during the pandemic with ethanol for gasoline dropped with gasoline demand for the shut-in. Not because of too little vessel supply, U.S. import demand that is not surging despite of coronavirus, but because of it. The pandemic led to lower volumes of crude and liquefied petroleum.

United States

News > World > Americas > US politics Close Donald Trump said he might sign coronavirus relief legislation that includes extra post office funding to deal with mail-in ballots. Last month, the president of the largest US teachers union “double-dog dared” Mr Trump to sit in one of their classrooms during the pandemic when schools reopen. Mr Trump said his administration wouldn’t agree to it because the funding would support vote-by-mail efforts, which he opposes.
Tech companies will employ more people (Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) hired 175,000 new workers since March) and the need for quality apartments should remain solid going forward. UPS said last week that it would tack on surcharges of as much as $4 a package for its highest-volume shippers during the coming holiday season. Speaker Nancy Pelosi grew animated on Thursday when told that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, one of Mr Trump’s lead negotiators, said Democrats are not interested in having serious talks.
In the tweet appealing to stop the executions, Mr Trump said the death sentences sent a deplorable message to the world, ending the tweet with the trending hashtag #DontExecute. Dr Fauci has contradicted Mr Trump on a number of occasions on issues regarding the pandemic including testing and the severity of the pandemic across the country. “They need that money in order to have the post office work so it can take all of these millions and millions of ballots,” Mr Trump said.
The hidden feature of this business’s results may be masked right now and could lead to significant Wall Street attention once GAAP financials get posted on a stand-alone basis. For the third anomaly, the US premium over foreign shares (for developed markets) is less volatile but no less persistent in recent history. It could be that some are beginning to get worried that without a new relief bill from Congress, the economic recovery here in the US could stall out. Parscale will remain with the Trump campaign as senior advisor for data and digital operations, essentially the same role he performed successfully in the 2016 Trump campaign.
The commitment from the U.S military to support their national defense programs continued unabated even during the pandemic, resulting in sales growth of 14% from the prior year. Mr Trump said he did not bring the bounties up during a phone conversation he had with Russian President Vladmir Putin last month. Mr Trump regularly calls into Hannity’s show, occasionally going on long tangents about his apparent enemies and the mainstream media as he did in an interview last week.
“GAO’s damning opinion paints a disturbing picture of the Trump administration playing fast and loose by bypassing the Senate confirmation process to install ideologues,” the chairs said.
“Sure, if they give us what we want,” Mr Trump replied when asked if he would sign a recovery bill that includes the extra USPS monies. Wall Street has been downgrading Cisco’s estimates pretty much regularly for the last 12 months and the company is guiding even below that number. Perhaps the standout figure from the poll is that Mr Biden now leads Mr Trump on the public’s opinion of who would better handle the economy.

Europe

A counterclaim from the EU over U.S. aid to Boeing is still before the WTO, with a ruling expected as early as September on allowable retaliatory tariffs. The EU had blocked an earlier attempt by Alstom to merge with Siemens AG s train business.

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