Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture August 20, 2020



Export demand is the primary demand for US Cotton so poor weekly sales means weak overall demand. The increase in Texas Cotton condition in the reports could indicate increased abandonment of the very bad dryland crops. Part of operating a lemonade stand is buying key supplies like lemons and sugar. The hot and dry weather extends north into Oklahoma and western Kansas and is returning later this week. Export demand for US Cotton has been poor for the last few weeks.
We assign the benchmark to be the average of Granular MOP NOLA and Granular MOP Corn Belt.


It would likely be a global event involving all fiat currencies including the dollar, the euro and the pound and would occur along with global bank “holidays”. Source: Bloomberg And as the dollar slipped, gold rallied back from yesterday’s dive… California legalized pot in 2018 and reached the billion dollar mark in 2020. Source: Bloomberg The dollar chopped around early on but tumbled after Europe closed… Helped bet against British Pound in 1992 trade that reportedly made a billion dollars.


less (Video length 00:08:57) This Thinkorswim, Futures Trading video covers spread trading and outright trading in S&P 500 Futures, Gold Futures, Silver Futures, and a Copper Futures Trade idea. Source: Bloomberg CTA positioning in gold fits with the price move but silver seems to suggest there is room for more as CTAs are squeezed in…. As did silver… We offer mass affluent, HNW, UHNW and institutional investors including family offices, gold, silver, platinum and palladium bullion in London, Zurich, Singapore, Hong Kong, Perth and soon Dubai.
They opine that there is no statistical correlation between gold prices and price inflation rates, and conclude that the inflation hedge notion is thus a myth. It would involve fixing the price of gold at a specific price, like $€£ 5,000 or $€£ 10,000 per ounce and it may happen as soon as this year. Banks have been prosecuted and found guilty of futures manipulation, particularly in the gold and silver markets.
For a solid 9 years, gold bulls had to watch government deficits climb globally, and Central Banks pumping out billions in liquidity only to see no response in inflation. If Gold breaks above $2,400, then there is a very real concern that the global markets could be close to some type of decline/collapse event. In the piece, we compared the narrative behind the bullish gold thesis and how it compares to the bullish oil thesis. “ It is owing to this superior characteristic that gold and silver enjoy their monetary status, and not their supposed scarcity.
Gold started the whole COVID-19 mess leading its way higher and it hasn’t looked back since. All of this means the rally in Gold and Silver is just getting started. But while gold is getting all of the attention, other markets are confirming a similar view taking shape. He begins with the usual appeal to popularity: First, she has been a single-minded advocate of a policy that most economists rightly reject: the revival of the gold standard.
“If gold is already weakening in a period of disinflation, it must be even weaker in a period of deflation. • Futures manipulation in gold and silver. The classical gold standard established an international benchmark for currency values, consistent with free-trade principles. • Targets for gold and the potential in silver. “Most analysts assert that gold has the characteristics of an inflation hedge. • Has demand for gold coins and bars really fallen in H1?


With valuations still completely disconnected with oil market fundamentals, we think investors should be positioned to take advantage of the oil bull market. 20, 2020 4:47 PM ET|| About: Intrepid Potash, Inc. (IPI)by: MMR ResearchMMR Research Commodities, oil & gas, energy, natural resourcesSummaryPotash segment can benefit from a more tightening market. So, unless oil prices move materially higher in the next 3-4 months, this decline will continue to eat into the existing US shale production base.
The natural gas industry has a ways to go to get back to selling the idea of “natural as a bridge fuel”.
Despite all the hoopla at the time, I warned investors back in June of 2018 that (APA) Alpine High discovery had a low oil split and was primarily gas. This is true in either direction as well – deflation because the oil price has crashed is just fine, general deflation of the price level would be a disaster. US shale oil production, which has been the key supply growth engine for the last 5 years, is all but falling apart. For anyone with a reasonable view on the energy transition and how the cadence of technology advancement is likely to be, there is no getting around natural gas.
Every energy agency firm now shows an oil market deficit of 1 to 3 mb/d for 2021. Source: Bloomberg Oil prices dumped and pumped today and ended lightly lower…

United States

My research team believes the US stock market has already peaked near the January/February 2018 market highs. The Trump bears, those who think that a Trump win could cause a stagflationary depression (like me), are largely out of the stock market. less The Fed Minutes caused stocks to fall on Wednesday which is unusual because normally the market ignores the Minutes. Either or both raise interest rates and start shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet – that second reduces the money supply directly, the first indirectly.
“As everyone knows, President Trump has no involvement in this project and felt it was only being done in order to showboat, and perhaps raise funds,” she said. This stock market is so reliant on the Fed, even a minor change can cause it to fall. The long-term catalyst of growing millennial entry-level home demand persists, but the short term is dicey considering the U.S economy has been turned upside down by the situation.
Today, Wall Street continues to use Zacks research including the Zacks Rank and Zacks Equity Research, which combines the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis. As Skyrm points out, one result of the Fed’s aggressive purchases of off-the-run securities is that The maximum amount the Fed will buy is 70% of the amount outstanding. That is notable given growth capital expenditure projections from Wall Street have come down to $900mm-1,000mm per year. That could very well be true given that the Fed money printer go brrr.
Up until the tax cut and this year’s stimulus, the Fed had been making up for a lack of fiscal policy support. Since then, the affinity for money printing has only grown in Washington and the Fed’s balance sheet has nearly doubled as a result. Mr Trump has threatened school systems that do not reopen in the fall with federal funding, saying he will withhold it if kids are back in classrooms. Yield caps are when the Fed controls the long end of the curve, capping rates at a certain level.
That’s a lot of new business coming in for companies like Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Shopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP), and Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT).
Former counselor to the Treasury secretary during the Obama administration, Steven Rattner began with : Trump’s latest unqualified nominee to the Federal Reserve Board must be rejected. The Wall Street Journal, which is also owned by one of the company’s backing the complaint, broke the story. Here is the letter (emphasis ours): Dear Senators: President Trump has nominated Judy Shelton to one of the vacancies on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
The vice president, ever willing to repeat Donald Trump’s sometimes-data-ignoring narratives was undeterred – despite no longer having school-aged children at home.


Ms Braverman, who was appointed by Boris Johnson in February, is the government’s chief legal adviser and oversees the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS). For Boris Johnson to sack him, he’d actually have to break from his holiday for a few minutes and that is far too much trouble. It has also gained government regulatory acceptance in the United States, the European Union, Australia, and Canada.