Agriculture
less General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower as no new sales to China were announced and as the weekly export sales report showed just average business. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought. General Comments: Cotton closed lower and trends are mostly down in this market for now. There was talk of big Chinese purchases in both Wheat and Corn but nothing confirmed by USDA. Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather.
Currencies
Most investors are aware of the clear trend between changes in the dollar and changes in the price of gold: as the dollar falls, gold rises. Changes in the dollar suggest that gold is likely going to rally over the coming year. However, what investors may not be aware of is the tendency for past changes in the dollar to actually inform future changes in the price of gold. Not only is the dollar supportive of a gold trade at this point, but momentum is also favoring gold traders.
As you can see, there’s a clear trend: the greater the decline in the dollar, the greater the future performance gold tends to see. Earlier this year, the dollar rose strongly as the coronavirus spread and investors sought safety in U.S. markets, similar to prior economic crises. The data also shows that rallies have occurred in 72% of all years following similar declines in the dollar. The major gold stocks literally crashed on that, with GDX plummeting 24.5% in a two-trading-day capitulation climax, as soaring US-dollar safe-haven demand hammered gold.
Source: Nuveen JPS Based on this, JPS may be better suited for investors who view the US dollar in a longer-term bear market. Interestingly, JPS appears to hold an even more bearish view on the US dollar and has about half of its assets overseas. The news boosted the pound and weighed on the safe-haven dollar, a win-win for cable bulls, despite authorities’ early telegraphing of this approval. As mentioned previously, the dollar has just recently entered the territory of more than 3% declines on a year-over-year basis.
This influx of capital led to the dollar index gaining upwards of 10% on a year-over-year basis during the mid-to-late March time frame. As of the last week, we have seen the dollar enter the territory of year-over-year declines of over 3%. Source: Nuveen JPC This little overseas exposure can add a small uplift in times of depreciating US dollar. However, since then, we have witnessed a consistent trend of the dollar weakening.
From our perspective, JPS is making a stronger stand on the weaker US dollar prospects.
As you can see, there’s a clear trend: the greater the decline in the dollar, the greater the future performance gold tends to see. Earlier this year, the dollar rose strongly as the coronavirus spread and investors sought safety in U.S. markets, similar to prior economic crises. The data also shows that rallies have occurred in 72% of all years following similar declines in the dollar. The major gold stocks literally crashed on that, with GDX plummeting 24.5% in a two-trading-day capitulation climax, as soaring US-dollar safe-haven demand hammered gold.
Source: Nuveen JPS Based on this, JPS may be better suited for investors who view the US dollar in a longer-term bear market. Interestingly, JPS appears to hold an even more bearish view on the US dollar and has about half of its assets overseas. The news boosted the pound and weighed on the safe-haven dollar, a win-win for cable bulls, despite authorities’ early telegraphing of this approval. As mentioned previously, the dollar has just recently entered the territory of more than 3% declines on a year-over-year basis.
This influx of capital led to the dollar index gaining upwards of 10% on a year-over-year basis during the mid-to-late March time frame. As of the last week, we have seen the dollar enter the territory of year-over-year declines of over 3%. Source: Nuveen JPC This little overseas exposure can add a small uplift in times of depreciating US dollar. However, since then, we have witnessed a consistent trend of the dollar weakening.
From our perspective, JPS is making a stronger stand on the weaker US dollar prospects.
Metals
The reason why it makes sense to hold physical silver instead of silver futures is due to something called futures convergence or roll yield. Within the silver ETP space, SLV is one of the most straightforward options available to investors: it holds physical silver in proportion to assets under management. That leveraged gold’s own parallel bull run by 2.9x, on the high side of major gold stocks’ normal range running from 2x to 3x. Put simply, AAAU is an ETF which you can buy and hold to track gold and also exercise an option to convert your shares into gold.
So only two trading days after that stock panic’s nadir, we started aggressively buying and recommending great gold and silver miners in our subscription newsletters. Metalla Royalty is significantly outperforming two immediate comparable streamers since January: Osisko Gold Royalties (NYSE:OR) and Sandstorm Gold (NYSE:SAND). For example, across my 50-year dataset, when we’ve seen this kind of silver strength, the next year has seen an average movement of a 32% gain.
What this data tells me is that investors tend to rebalance their portfolios at the start of the year, which results in fresh capital coming into markets like silver.
Source: Author’s calculations of LMBA data Over the past year, we have seen gold rally by around 24%. Watch gold and silver like a hawk. For example, over the past 50 years, a strong 63-65% of the time has seen silver prices appreciate during January and February. less The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a correction since early August, gutting traders’ enthusiasm for this contrarian sector.
The universal greed and extreme overboughtness plaguing gold stocks as their last upleg peaked has been reversed, paving the way for their next bull upleg. AAAU is one of the most unique products offered to gold traders in that it actually allows physical delivery of the commodity through the redemption of shares. We believe the recent downward price trend in Gold is an ideal setup for an Intermediate Wave 4 pullback of a broader Wave 3 advance. Traders selling relatively-high at upleg toppings were able to buy more shares of the same fundamentally-superior gold miners at correction bottomings, accelerating their overall gains.
Similar to our prior study, the skew in gold’s returns is also favorable with average upside movements tending to outpace downside movements. GDX commands the lion’s share of capital deployed in major gold miners’ stocks via exchange-traded funds. I believe that silver prices are set to rally both technically and fundamentally, and the fund structure of SLV is favorable for shareholders versus alternatives available.
In other words, we believe Gold is in the midst of a broad advance cycle that may eventually push price levels to $5000 and above.
So only two trading days after that stock panic’s nadir, we started aggressively buying and recommending great gold and silver miners in our subscription newsletters. Metalla Royalty is significantly outperforming two immediate comparable streamers since January: Osisko Gold Royalties (NYSE:OR) and Sandstorm Gold (NYSE:SAND). For example, across my 50-year dataset, when we’ve seen this kind of silver strength, the next year has seen an average movement of a 32% gain.
What this data tells me is that investors tend to rebalance their portfolios at the start of the year, which results in fresh capital coming into markets like silver.
Source: Author’s calculations of LMBA data Over the past year, we have seen gold rally by around 24%. Watch gold and silver like a hawk. For example, over the past 50 years, a strong 63-65% of the time has seen silver prices appreciate during January and February. less The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a correction since early August, gutting traders’ enthusiasm for this contrarian sector.
The universal greed and extreme overboughtness plaguing gold stocks as their last upleg peaked has been reversed, paving the way for their next bull upleg. AAAU is one of the most unique products offered to gold traders in that it actually allows physical delivery of the commodity through the redemption of shares. We believe the recent downward price trend in Gold is an ideal setup for an Intermediate Wave 4 pullback of a broader Wave 3 advance. Traders selling relatively-high at upleg toppings were able to buy more shares of the same fundamentally-superior gold miners at correction bottomings, accelerating their overall gains.
Similar to our prior study, the skew in gold’s returns is also favorable with average upside movements tending to outpace downside movements. GDX commands the lion’s share of capital deployed in major gold miners’ stocks via exchange-traded funds. I believe that silver prices are set to rally both technically and fundamentally, and the fund structure of SLV is favorable for shareholders versus alternatives available.
In other words, we believe Gold is in the midst of a broad advance cycle that may eventually push price levels to $5000 and above.
Oil
US oil production growth started to decrease considerably showing flat production from November 2019 to March 2020 even before the oil price drop happened. IEA had projected global oil demand to outpace global oil supplies by 0.5 mb/d. Despite the crash in oil prices this year, and continued production cuts by OPEC, and nearly 100 energy companies filing bankruptcy, supplies only marginally declined. In 2013, I began warning about the risk to oil prices due to the ongoing imbalances between global supply and demand.
As noted above, oil companies must produce oil to generate revenues with which to operate. Despite this improvement, Brent oil prices averaging around $40 per barrel is still quite challenging, especially when combined with the sluggish refining margins. “ Since then, OPEC has engaged in repeated rounds of cutting production to support oil prices. There is also a not so insignificant correlation between oil prices and employment. Then, as 2018 came to a close, I made an “Prices of both energy-related shares and oil have been disappointing.
The oil majors curtailing capex in shale regions and projecting no growth for the incoming years.
Drilling for oil also requires sizable capital expenditures, which has a large multiplier effect on the economy. Oil production remains near the highest levels in history. The journey has been treacherous, but the anchoring theme for oil or any commodities has never really changed. All of these things have only magnified the oil bull thesis. Virtually every aspect of our lives impacts oil consumption. Market participants started to look at non-OPEC production past 2020 and started to realize that there was just nothing coming.
US shale which played a critical role in boosting expected non-OPEC supplies from 2020 to 2025 will no longer play that same role.
As noted above, oil companies must produce oil to generate revenues with which to operate. Despite this improvement, Brent oil prices averaging around $40 per barrel is still quite challenging, especially when combined with the sluggish refining margins. “ Since then, OPEC has engaged in repeated rounds of cutting production to support oil prices. There is also a not so insignificant correlation between oil prices and employment. Then, as 2018 came to a close, I made an “Prices of both energy-related shares and oil have been disappointing.
The oil majors curtailing capex in shale regions and projecting no growth for the incoming years.
Drilling for oil also requires sizable capital expenditures, which has a large multiplier effect on the economy. Oil production remains near the highest levels in history. The journey has been treacherous, but the anchoring theme for oil or any commodities has never really changed. All of these things have only magnified the oil bull thesis. Virtually every aspect of our lives impacts oil consumption. Market participants started to look at non-OPEC production past 2020 and started to realize that there was just nothing coming.
US shale which played a critical role in boosting expected non-OPEC supplies from 2020 to 2025 will no longer play that same role.
United States
The Indian market is also large enough, similar to the US market, for multiple companies to succeed including MakeMyTrip. Source: Simply Wall Street As we can see, the market’s long-term earnings expectations remain quite healthy —in spite of Wall Street’s apparent disinterest in the stock. Never forget: Wall Street is the only market in the world that when they hold a “50% off” clearance sale, no one shows up! UPST is proposing a reasonable IPO valuation, has strong current and future growth prospects and impressive Covid-19 pandemic resilience, so the IPO is worth a close look.
But during the same time period, the researchers found “8,756 stories involving Trump and mask wearing and 1,636 stories about Trump and hydroxychloroquine. Going forward, Wall Street currently expects to see excellent annual revenue growth of 25.6% and this is more than double what is expected for the rest of the market. The lecturing, hectoring media that went on and on about Trump’s mask-wearing was appalling when you consider that other stories of far more importance were given short shrift.
Initially, the company focused on the Indian expat market in the US and servicing those customers who were looking for airfare between India and the United States. However, if the Biden administration used her designated deputy to scuttle the investigation or the report, the Biden administration will have done what Trump never actually did. Not surprisingly, negative stories of Donald Trump and the pandemic were more likely to be published than positive stories about what was happening with the coronavirus.
Few if any will dispute the Fed’s role in asset markets, so investors pay close attention to an economic release that directly reflects one of its key goals. That should instill some confidence in their ability to get vaccines from point A to point B. UPS and FedEx are only one part of the logistics equation, though. For the third week of November, FedEx delivered 96.6% of its packages on time, while UPS delivered 96.9%, according to Satish Jindel, president and founder of ShipMatrix.
The Trump administration waived most executive privileges and released most of the report except for grand jury information.
CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) trades at a discount to its valuation based on a relative valuation model. One well-known retired Admiral blasted Trump’s move as an … A wise person would not do this over-the-shoulder shot while exiting the door. Research from our team of in-house analysts has been quoted by The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, USA Today, Kitco, Reuters, US News & World Report, CNBC, and more.
According to data from Bloomberg, the average forecast of Wall Street for the S&P 500 is more than 3,900 for 2021 with some projecting an even bigger increase. Source: Simply Wall Street Fortunately, we can say that this optimism for the industry as a whole appears to be supported by the underlying numbers. Indeed, since most of the media was obsessed with Trump, the good news about vaccines or treatments was often buried or unwritten.
But during the same time period, the researchers found “8,756 stories involving Trump and mask wearing and 1,636 stories about Trump and hydroxychloroquine. Going forward, Wall Street currently expects to see excellent annual revenue growth of 25.6% and this is more than double what is expected for the rest of the market. The lecturing, hectoring media that went on and on about Trump’s mask-wearing was appalling when you consider that other stories of far more importance were given short shrift.
Initially, the company focused on the Indian expat market in the US and servicing those customers who were looking for airfare between India and the United States. However, if the Biden administration used her designated deputy to scuttle the investigation or the report, the Biden administration will have done what Trump never actually did. Not surprisingly, negative stories of Donald Trump and the pandemic were more likely to be published than positive stories about what was happening with the coronavirus.
Few if any will dispute the Fed’s role in asset markets, so investors pay close attention to an economic release that directly reflects one of its key goals. That should instill some confidence in their ability to get vaccines from point A to point B. UPS and FedEx are only one part of the logistics equation, though. For the third week of November, FedEx delivered 96.6% of its packages on time, while UPS delivered 96.9%, according to Satish Jindel, president and founder of ShipMatrix.
The Trump administration waived most executive privileges and released most of the report except for grand jury information.
CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) trades at a discount to its valuation based on a relative valuation model. One well-known retired Admiral blasted Trump’s move as an … A wise person would not do this over-the-shoulder shot while exiting the door. Research from our team of in-house analysts has been quoted by The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, USA Today, Kitco, Reuters, US News & World Report, CNBC, and more.
According to data from Bloomberg, the average forecast of Wall Street for the S&P 500 is more than 3,900 for 2021 with some projecting an even bigger increase. Source: Simply Wall Street Fortunately, we can say that this optimism for the industry as a whole appears to be supported by the underlying numbers. Indeed, since most of the media was obsessed with Trump, the good news about vaccines or treatments was often buried or unwritten.
China
Censorship of a post aimed at 1.2 million Chinese-speaking Australians is the latest move in the Beijing power grab.
Europe
GBP/USD has hit new cycle highs amid Brexit optimism, yet trading remained nervous and choppy. : Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced another rebellion from Conservative backbenchers but passed the return to localized restrictions after the nationwide lockdown expired. During the week, upbeat headlines of an imminent deal contrasted concerns that France may veto any compromise made by Chief EU Negotiator Michel Barnier, a Frenchman. The European Union is also expected to buy more bonds to fund economic recovery.
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