Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture December 08, 2020



Reports indicate that some Cotton could have been damaged in Georgia and the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia due to the excessive winds and rains caused by the hurricanes. General Comments: Cotton closed higher after testing recent lows.


If an investor has only US dollar investments, then his portfolio diminishes in value in relation to other currencies when the US dollar weakens. This said however, what investors may not be aware of is the clear correlation between past changes in the dollar and future changes in gold. It is clear that the US dollar weakened substantially against the euro after July 2020. Gold is likely going to rally over the next year due to continued weakness in the dollar.
In the graphic below, you can see GAAP segment results over the past year and a half, with dollar values in millions. 2020 has seen the US dollar weaken against the euro. November saw the euro strengthen further against the US dollar and reach 1.21. This relationship played out again this year with gold rallying while the dollar fell. (Source: Seeking Alpha Apple estimates page, seen here) In the end, Apple’s capital return plan has crossed the half a trillion dollar milestone during this fiscal quarter.
The same is true if an investor has investments only in euros, namely, the value of his portfolio in relation to other currencies will diminish if the euro weakens. Over the past few months, a very important relationship has developed in the U.S. dollar: it is weakening and doing so substantially. Since April, we have seen this weakness continue with the current year-over-year decline in the dollar sitting at around 3.8%. Traditional commodity investors are aware of the moderate inverse correlation between the dollar and the price of commodities.
However, the fear eventually started easing and the dollar started weakening. Between May and July the euro recovered to 1.14 and after July changed the trend and remained in a fairly narrow trading range at 1.18. Therefore, there is a juicy multi-million dollar market that VRDN-001 could capture some portion of in the future, if approved. The Great Recession saw the euro almost reach USD 1.60 before a downward trend set in, and by 2015 the European currency was down to 1.10.
This influx of capital led to the dollar rallying by over 10% on a year-over-year basis. There is also the problem of the international status of the US dollar. Recently the euro was in a downtrend in a narrow trading range between 1.20 and 1.10, but that has ended as indicated above.


All this said, at its core NUGT is a bet on gold miners and gold miners are a bet on the price of gold. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a fairly straightforward and popular index which is giving exposure to firms which primarily derive revenues from gold mining. This is thus a short to medium term play on that iron ore price – to my mind at least. I think this is a medium to long term rise in the iron ore price. What’s happening is this: (Iron ore price from Markets Insider) The costs of mining are pretty much fixed.
The price of iron ore is surging and Rio gains substantially when that happens. This is not wholly and exactly true but it’s close enough – the determinant of the iron ore price is the Chinese economy. Rio Tinto gains from a rise in the iron ore price. To prove the point, I have taken the underlying index which NUGT tracks and correlated it with changes in gold’s price. Sure, such things as increased supply matter too but a new iron ore plant just isn’t something whistled up overnight.
For iron ore miners what happens in China really, really, matters. The company operates primarily through four segments — Petroleum, Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal.
The idea that it will impose tariffs on iron ore is thus in the air. Its iron ore production has increased 8% year-over-year to 66 Mt. NUGT’s underlying index is strongly correlated to gold’s changes, but compounded returns can see divergence in performance. NUGT is an ETF which is giving a 2x leveraged bet on the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. But the big interest for us here is iron ore. From a probabilistic standpoint, the odds favor upside in gold at this point.
NUGT is a volatile gold miner ETF which has recently seen its leverage trimmed. Most of the rich world gains much of its steel from recycled material, China doesn’t have a civilization it is taking apart to build the next version.


Despite rising oil and natural gas prices, analysts have yet to boost their revenue estimates for the company higher in a meaningful way. Therefore, any upward price move in natural gas after the end of 2020 would be somewhat of a price anomaly. They are either waiting to see if the recent move higher in oil and natural gas is here to stay, or they are likely to increase those estimates soon. Exxon Mobil’s stock’s direction continues to be tied to oil and natural gas performance, and if they both continue to improve, Exxon Mobil should benefit.
It has resulted in the price of oil rising to around $45, its highest price since March. We continue to view natural gas as a transition and destination fuel for lower carbon future supported by a few key drivers. Over the past 25 years, natural gas has only moved higher in January and February in nine or ten of those years. Natural gas prices have increased to $2.40 from around $1.40 in the middle of July.
However, if oil prices continue their positive momentum and reach $50 per barrel early next year, BKR may eventually breakout the resistance at $22 and retest $30’s. Having said this, the largest monthly advance in January for natural gas is $1.37, and $2.49 for February. Historically, January and February are predominantly bearish for natural gas. As we saw in March, the double-whammy of collapsing oil prices and economic shutdown in response to the coronavirus triggered a sharp sell-off fueled by margin liquidation.
Conversely, if oil prices drop precipitously again, we may be back to $15 very soon. Fracking hurt all oil stocks because it increased supply, which hurt prices. Our long term outlook for LNG demand growth remains intact. Taking a broader view of the LNG market.

United States

Aurora doesn’t operate in the US market so what might happen in a Biden administration, or what might get through Congress, doesn’t have much useful impact. (NASDAQ:MGEN) is a small biotech company that has been focusing in recent years on its micro RNA modulation program, with two candidate drugs: Cobomarsen and Remlarsen. less Image courtesy of Shutterstock Apple, Inc. (AAPL), the US’ most valuable company, designs and manufactures smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories.
In the US, there has been at least one other trial participant who reportedly died not long after receiving the second dose.
Of course, with US stocks pressing back toward record highs on Tuesday, investors are signaling that all is well in the US. Novartis has a footprint of four locations in the US representing over one million square feet. The sanctioned Chinese officials are now banned from travel to the US in addition to the targeted financial measures. Since the stellar earnings report on Dec 2nd, the stock rose 19%, while Nasdaq and S&P rose 1%. This is why Dalio re-upped his warnings a few days ago about the US being on the cusp of another civil war or revolution.
The latest effort to raise the stakes in this hyper-competitive market comes from Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), which has completely revamped Webex. Source: Author based on Refinitiv data Since we first recommended the stock in September, Zscaler is up about 36%, beating both Nasdaq and S&P indices by a wide margin. The ‘deep state’ Judge took a parting shot at Flynn, writing that “the pardon “does not, standing alone, render [Mr. Flynn] innocent of the alleged violation” of 18 U.S.C.
The video comes from an appearance he made on a Chinese television show about Wall Street and international trade. Currently, there is only one approved drug to treat TED: ‘ (NASDAQ:HZNP) Tepezza. He has been quoted in a variety of financial news publications, such as CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post. I started with the Wall Street pundits’ revenue forecasts that were compiled by Seeking Alpha.
In many ways, it’s a similar strategy to what Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has been doing with Teams. President Trump recently promised Americans that the vaccine wouldn’t be mandatory. Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, Iran and other countries that have serious differences with the US should not be chosen. YTD, the stock is up nearly 289%, while Nasdaq is up 39%, and the S&P index is up 14%.


In the meantime tensions continue to spiral over the Taiwan issue, with Beijing specifically condemning continued US arms sales to the breakaway republic. Specifically it was the acting top US diplomat, Chargé d’Affaires Robert Forden, who Beijing lodged its protest to while , according to Reuters. He explains that this American agent who at lives part of the year in Beijing helps with the propaganda operation in the city of Washington in 2015. The agency created a unit dedicated to countering Beijing’s operations at state and local levels in May 2019.
The man you’re about to see speak is a professor from Beijing. He works at a university in Beijing.


Yields, which fall when bond prices rise, retreated Tuesday as investors waited for developments on the Brexit trade negotiations. But the Brexit drama may not be over as the U.K. enters a new phase of negotiations with its trading partners. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned that securing a trade deal at a coming summit with the European Union will be difficult before the Dec. 31 deadline. It is also another sign of a turnaround in the market’s expectations for a more cohesive European Union.
Share After years of uncertainty and missed deadlines, the U.K. is finally leaving the EU.