Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture July 22, 2020



Luckin Coffee and Wirecard have recently declined precipitously – after years of campaigning, short sellers have been vindicated on these two names. General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher as demand for world Wheat was noted from Jordan and Egypt. The Winter Wheat harvest is starting to get complete. The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops. The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth. On the short side we talk about GSX Techedu Inc. (GSX), Luckin Coffee (OTCPK:LKNCY), Wirecard, Great Ajax Corp (AJX), Inspire Medical Systems (INSP). The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. Mr. Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. General Comments: Cotton closed near unchanged.

Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions and futures prices closed lower. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers.


He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. As a result, the dollar will take its cue from stimulus headlines. This suggests that nearly every dollar of additional revenue is flowing through to the bottom line on a pre-tax basis. This was highlighted earlier today by Ms. Tammy Da Costa in the article, Euro Price Analysis: EUR/USD Breaks Above Key Level of Prior Resistance. For example, one writer named Gita Smith, was listed in “99 separate small-dollar donations” to various Democratic candidates – in addition to contributions to ActBlue. The top-fundraising House Democrat this cycle, lead impeachment investigator Adam Schiff, has raised 54 per cent of his total campaign funds through small-dollar donations. From February to April, the Euro area unemployment rate rose only 10 basis points (bps) to 7.3%, while the U.S. rate (U3) rose 1,120 bps to 14.7% ().


The latter is aimed at locally extending known gold mineralization and exploring newly identified and deeper geophysical targets. 22, 2020 4:29 PM ETby: Tim WorstallTim Worstall Tech, banks, gold & precious metals, natural resourcesContinental TelegraphSummaryWe’re interested in the residential housing market for two different reasons. The money printing of the Federal Reserve and world governments are making gold much scarcer in currency terms. It’s located in the Golden Triangle in the northeastern part of Nicaragua, which has produced around eight million ounces of gold over the past century. The company announced several other near-surface, high-grade gold intersections in all targeted areas of the project, namely Midfield SE, Striker SW and Dark Horse. Look for the gold ETF to continue higher until it hits that level then pause/pullback. Within 5 years, gold will be above $5,000/ounce. There’s significant room for growth as resources stand at close to 2.5 million ounces of gold at the moment.

Source: Bloomberg Spot Gold tagged $1870 intraday… I think the internal rate of return of 17% at that gold price is decent. Reid’s conclusion: “Gold is definitely a fiat money hedge” and not only that, but more importantly a transitionary asset to whatever monetary system is next. I’m not a fan of gold projects with an annual output of less than 100,000 ounces, but this one looks like a keeper. Royal Road’s Luna Roja project is at a very early stage but I think there’s good promise for extending gold mineralization at depth. less The commodity gold is nearing a major double top just shy of $2,000/ounce. Erdene released another batch of good drill results from its gold deposits in Mongolia and I think the bankable feasibility study for Bayan Khundii looks very promising. (Source: Royal Road Minerals) Hemco owns the Bonanza gold mine, which is located around 26km northwest of Luna Roja. If the company manages to find enough gold, I think the project could be combined with the Bonanza gold mine as it’s within trucking distance.

(Source: Erdene) The project consists of the Altan Nar, Bayan Khundii, and Zuun Mod deposits, which have combined measured and indicated resources of 839,000 ounces of gold. The key financials for the expansion of the mine look good and Island Gold is on track to become one of the top low-cost gold mines in the world. (Source: Alamos Gold) Alamos said that these drill results have extended high-grade gold mineralization in all three areas of focus.


Even reports that might suggest that we may get an increase in crude oil supply is not slowing down this crude oil morning rise. Higher crude storage build largely came from disappointing refinery throughput and a return of US shut-in production. Specifically, I believe that within the next few months, natural gas will reverse its decline and that we will see the price of gas rise, benefiting BOIL holders. U.S. oil products still are looking like a bottom. For a simple strategy, consider only buying when natural gas prices hits a new 1-month high because this will indicate that the trend may be shifting. Oil prices took today’s bearish EIA oil storage report in strides. Lower gasoline storage and recovering air travel demand could imply higher throughput down the road. EIA assumes employment levels will continue to grow in 2021, and gasoline consumption will increase to 9.1 million bpd, or to about 2% less than its 2019 average. EIA expects motor gasoline consumption will average 8.3 million bpd in 2020, down 1.0 million bpd (10%) from 2019.

So, we would take this week’s report in stride, but if demand continues to stall and US oil production returns, crude draws will be limited. Ultimately, I am bullish natural gas due to these reasons and I believe that the EIA’s analysis gives a very similar and objective confirmation point. BOIL is an ETF giving a 2x leveraged return of the main natural gas index provided by Bloomberg. The demand recovery has stalled as gasoline demand is plateauing, while higher COVID-19 cases in the US are tempering demand. During peak stay-at-home orders, distillate consumption was relatively less affected by COVID-19 mitigation efforts than gasoline or jet fuel consumption. To start this piece off, let’s take an objective technical look at the past few months of price action in natural gas futures. Higher COVID-19 cases could be tempering demand, and refinery throughput has turned lower.Implied US oil production has also recovered back to ~11.5 mb/d.

When studying natural gas, it is highly important to understand that an outright build or draw doesn’t really say much about inventories. Forward-looking indicators like normalizing gasoline storage and improving air travel could prompt higher refinery throughput, which would offer a tailwind on crude. From a relative perspective, natural gas has actually been somewhat boring or even frustrating to trade since April. A Reuters poll of analysts indicated that U.S. oil stocks likely fell by around 2 million barrels in the week ended July 17.

United States

It comes as violent clashes continued in Portland between protesters and federal officers overnight and the Trump administration threatened to send agents to more major cities. He said New York was prepared to go to court if the Trump Administration deployed federal law enforcement to the city. “We’re going to have more federal law enforcement – that, I can tell you,” Mr Trump told reporters on Monday. He is slated to give remarks on the subject, though he rarely focuses on federal laws and statutes – Mr Trump prefers to speak of “anarchists” and left-wing “mobs”. Mr Trump is making the move “in light of the, frankly, expanding unemployment” in the US due to Covid-19, one of the officials said. Evangelicals for Trump aims to rally support among Evangelical Christian Americans for Mr Trump. That is much more nuanced that what Mr Trump told reporters on Saturday as he left the White House for a campaign rally in Oklahoma. In 2016, Ms Trump voted for Hillary Clinton for president and she said she will support former Vice President Joe Biden in the 2020 US election.

A Trump supporter sits in the upper rows of the BOK Centre in Tulsa, Oklahoma ahead of a campaign rally. But Mr Trump and some of his top lieutenants say using federal officers is necessary to prevent sometimes-violent protesters from destroying American cities and suburbs. Trump administration officials have yet to clearly explain under what federal authorities the law enforcement personnel are operating, other than to cite statutes allowing Washington to protect federal buildings. The powerful branch of the Justice Department has been investigating a list of things related to Mr Trump, which has reportedly angered the president. She said that Mr Trump’s re-election would be “the end of the American experiment” and that people continuing to support her uncle for another four years is “unthinkable.” “Fear-mongering, xenophobia, and racism are the unabashed tenets of Trump’s refugee and immigration policy,” the former vice president said in a statement.

Read the view America First mantra is here to stay President Donald Trump says election rival Joe Biden s $700 bln “Buy American” plan is policy plagiarism. One of the key questions being asked by market participants is how this might affect the next political strategy of President Trump. Mr Trump has tried to portray himself as the “law and order” president since the onset of the George Floyd protests. Meanwhile, the White House has , though on Tuesday Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said that President Trump is still in favor of the measures. The ad features side-by-side images, one portraying Donald Trump surrounded by law enforcement officials, and the other an officer lying on pavement and surrounded by protesters. Though she paints Mr Trump as something of a victim of his father, she said the president deserves no sympathy for his upbringing.


This suggests that although the U.S. official unemployment rose more than in the EU, it could also fall more quickly, as the acute stage of the crisis passes. The EU also plans further changes to financial regulations that should help support the markets. The drug candidate is currently approved in the European Union as an adjunct to insulin therapy for certain type 1 diabetes patients.