Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture July 23, 2021



World prices might have bottomed and should start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US. The rains might show up but will generally be too little too late to help Wheat. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Kazakhstan has moved to limit Wheat exports for this year.


A stronger dollar will weigh on sectors such as materials and energy while stopping inflation dead in its tracks as the price of commodities falls in value. It has resulted in foreign investors buying US debt and, therefore, helped to strengthen the US dollar.


Other asset classes responded in a similar manner, with reflation trades like small caps, commodities like copper, and emerging market equities lagging long-duration growth sectors like Technology.

United States

US rates will remain extremely attractive, keeping the long end of the US yield curve from rising and perhaps even pushing lower. More importantly, the Fed dot plot signaled two possible rate hikes in 2023, and potentially even a rate hike as early as 2022. less Michael Kramer Follow This article was written exclusively for Investing.comRates are falling in the US, and investors appear to be wondering why. This article was written exclusively for Investing.comRates are falling in the US, and investors appear to be wondering why.
Lower rates around the globe have sent yields in the US plunging back to 1.25% on the 10-year Treasury. Despite the decline, rates in the US are very desirable to investors around the globe. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve begins to consider a path that results in the tapering of quantitative easing. Both in the US and China, the world’s two largest economies, producer prices sharply increased in Q2 due to these challenges.
Yet by next year the Fed sees inflation returning to 2.1%, in-line with their long-term target. The better know cousin index of the Philly Fed’s ADS the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index. Thus we’ve used 91 days as a comparable smoothing of the Philly Fed ADS index. Let’s consider the relationship between the 10-year and the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX), pictured below. The CFNAI is updated monthly, but the metric that gets the most attention by the Chicago Fed economists is its .
Thus it is comparable to the better-known Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (more about the comparison below). He has been quoted in a variety of financial news publications, such as CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post. You will be charged $ + tax (if applicable) for The Wall Street Journal.