Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture July 28, 2020


Coffee and breakfast is a “tough zone” to operate in, and Starbucks’ comps are likely down around mid-20% in June, he said. Specifically, in the last several years, Brazil has overtaken the United States as the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans. The Center-West now produces about half of the soybeans in Brazil. Several factors allowed Brazil to emerge as the global leader in soybean production and exports. Lastly, a tool will be available to use in times of market interference or disruption when the Brazil-U.S. soybean basis is less stable, such as during a trade war. Surgical and cotton medical masks fared better, but still with discouraging results overall (see here, here, here, here, and here). It also covers the commodities market daily focusing on in-depth technical developments in GOLD, CRUDE OIL, SILVER, CORN & WHEAT. Additionally, the price relationship between U.S. soybeans and Brazilian soybeans is usually stable. In addition to Brazilian investment, China has been involved in the funding of railway projects that could further benefit the production and export of Brazilian soybeans.

However, in times of disruption, such as during the U.S.-China trade war that started in 2018, the relationship between U.S. soybean prices and Brazilian soybean prices breaks down. Although the United States continues to produce and export more soybeans each crop year, the pace of both production and exports is much lower than the growth from Brazil. Source: USDA PSD Database In general, both the United States and Brazil find destinations for their soybean exports. In crop year 2019/2020, the U.S. only accounted for about 29% of global soybean exports, while Brazil accounted for 37%. First, hedgers with any exposure to Brazilian soybean price movements will have a direct tool to offset their risk. Therefore, Brazil tends to supply Chinese soybean demand from March through October, and the United States exports soybeans to China from October through March.

Brazil emerged as a significant soybean producer during the 1970s and 1980s, as different varieties of soybeans more adaptable to the Brazilian climate were introduced. A few decades ago, the United States was responsible for about 80% of the entire world’s soybean exports. As Brazil’s influence in the soybean market has grown, so too has the importance of the risk factors faced by producers in the United States and Brazil. Weather, trade and other common risks take on global importance, and each has a material impact on the price of the world’s soybeans.


Just two years ago, Apple (AAPL) became the world’s first trillion-dollar company. Precious Metals names appearing in our top ten suggests options market participants are betting on a continued expansion of Fed liquidity leading to a weaker dollar. After a decent amount of consolidation (weeks), silver broke out again and make the exact same Dollar amount move to the recent highs. KHC will also start to see some currency headwinds dissipate in this quarter as the US dollar index has started to move lower. Source: the Verge Microsoft and Amazon are both more trusted than Apple, but Cupertino has two advantages over these trillion-dollar gorillas as well. The company’s net dollar retention rate is above 100%, a positive signal that indicates it is garnering more revenue from the same cohort over time, i.e., negative net churn. Source: Bloomberg The Dollar rallied briefly into the Asian markets but was sold once again as Europe opened and closed lower for the 7th day in the last 8…


A portfolio with a quarter in cash, stocks, bonds, and gold (each) just had its best 90-day run ever. We ultimately think that the stagflation scenario is the most likely and gold prices should therefore continue to rise over the coming months and quarters. Magnet Operations, the company had an incredible quarter with quarterly gold production of 61,100 ounces at all-in sustaining costs of A$867/oz [US$590/oz]. The GLD, IAU (both gold), and SLV (silver) all were in the top 5 of weekly fund flows last week. It is for this reason that gold follows the path set by U.S. real interest rates in the short term. But for the day trading, both metals finished well, with gold around 1950 and silver around 24.50. When monetary and fiscal policy are exceptionally loose as they are today, real interest rates fall and gold tends to benefit. The company managed to finish the year with a strong balance sheet, record gold production, and a new asset to replace reserves at Mt.

Overall, it was an A+ quarter at the operation, with gold production up 56% sequentially at much lower costs. On this basis, the rise in the gold price has risen far in excess of where one would expect. less Gold and silver rocketed higher overnight. Whether gold prices continue rising or decline back towards the broad commodity complex will ultimately depend on the macroeconomic outlook. Well, nervous investors can buy put options on gold, silver, and mining stocks. While we expect them to ultimately be proven correct, given gold’s recent run we believe there are better ways to benefit from rising inflation from a risk-reward perspective. Gold tends to react violently at round numbers like $500, $1000, and $2000.When gold makes its way to $3000, more “price violence” should be expected. Gold is trading almost exactly where it should be given its historical correlation with real interest rates. Magnet at a feed grade of 3.90 grams per tonne gold, compared to 458,000 tonnes at 2.74 grams per tonne gold in fiscal Q3.

These higher grades drove both lower cash costs (A$532/oz vs. A$764/oz], and a 40 basis point improvement in gold recovery rates to an impressive 97.2%. Often, that signals that the gold price is building energy for a big move higher. As long as gold trades at $1800 or higher, I expect GDX will ultimately make a new all-time high.


For instance, in the first quarter, the company generated $136 million of revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons, nearly 90% of which came from crude oil sales. Oil’s recovery will drive earnings growth and the company will generate free cash flows which will help improve its balance sheet. If oil prices hold their ground, then Laredo Petroleum will realize substantially higher levels of commodity prices in the coming quarters than Q2-2020. Remember, Laredo Petroleum has one of the most robust hedge books in the industry which has minimized the exposure of the company’s cash flows to oil price weakness. I think Laredo Petroleum is a good play on oil prices and investors who can tolerate oil-related swings should consider buying the stock. The commodity ended up averaging just under $28 a barrel. It has 5.4 million barrels of output swapped at a weighted-average price of $59.50 WTI and 1.8 million barrels at $63.07 Brent. But in the second quarter, oil prices fell substantially, with WTI future falling into the negative territory for the first time.

I think Laredo Petroleum is a great play on oil prices. The positive impact of higher NGL and natural gas prices, therefore, will be limited in scope. But a vast majority of the company’s revenue still comes from the sale of crude oil which is a higher value product than NGL and natural gas. The modest increase in oil output can only slightly soften the blow coming from the 45% decrease in realized oil prices and the company’s earnings will still fall substantially. Still, the company must always maintain a minimum of $0.5 million per vessel as per its loan obligations. operating expenses and debt service) for this type of vessel. Its cash flows, however, will receive a lot of support from crude oil hedges. Note that Laredo Petroleum’s production profile is heavily tilted towards NGL and natural gas which together accounted for around two-thirds of its first-quarter output. The good thing, however, is that Laredo Petroleum comes with an excellent track record of producing more oil than its forecast due to strong production from wells.

That’s because the oil price environment has improved substantially since the second quarter, with WTI trading near $40 per barrel since early-June. That’s enabled the company to exceed its oil guidance for the last five quarters in a row. Through continued productivity gains, Laredo Petroleum might report better-than-expected oil output for the second quarter.

United States

It was released in March, just a few weeks before the Fed announced extensive new measures to support the economy as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. When asked if he planned to visit the civil rights leader’s body, Mr Trump told reporters that he was not. He added that funnelling the money through a private company “has the effect of keeping the public in the dark as to a big chunk of Trump campaign spending”. Mr Trump and Mr Lewis sparred in the press in 2017, when Mr Lewis said he would skip the president’s inauguration. Mr Trump says an increase in voting-by-mail will lead to one — and one that he would inevitably lose because Democrats vote by mail more often. The book – Compromised: Counterintelligence and the Threat of Donald J. Trump – will come out less than two months before Americans vote in this year’s presidential election. The complaint also asks for the practice to be put to an end and for the Trump campaign to be hit with fines.

The Trump administration doesn’t have the tools to solve the crisis – fiscal and monetary policy can only delay round two of the economic crash until after the elections. Meanwhile, a deficit of trust and public perception could dissuade people from sharing sensitive medical data with ad-driven giants such as Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) or Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL). Mr Lemire said that Mr Trump’s decision not to visit Mr Lewis’ s was part of the president’s intensifying culture war strategy heading into the 2020 US election. In a statement to HuffPost, the Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh also denied that the payments had broken any laws. He then claimed the overall goal of the Democrats is to undermine the economy to cause Mr Trump’s downfall in the 2020 US election. Had virus cases stabilized with no significant upticks over the past month, the Fed would be talking about the improving recovery and how the worst is over. A Republican congressional candidate in Kansas claimed that the number of people that have died due to the coronavirus has been exaggerated to hurt Donald Trump.

In a statement announcing the book, the publishing company said “the Trump administration used his private expression of political opinions to force him out”. President Donald Trump’s campaign group has been accused of violating federal election law, by funnelling $216m (£166.6m) through private companies to hide payments to family members and other organisations. Sharing the full story, not just the headlines Download now According to Johnathn Lemire, an Associated Press White House correspondent, Mr Trump’s aides were surprised by the president’s answer. The Senate hopeful once served on Mr Trump’s “Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity” where he stoked fears over voter fraud that have been frequently debunked by experts. Brendan Fischer, a lawyer with the group, claimed to HuffPost that “the money is being laundered through corporations run by top Trump campaign officials”.

However, Mr Fischer added: “The Trump campaign has taken it to another level.” The Independent has contacted the Trump campaign and AMMC for comment.