Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture July 30, 2021

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Agriculture

In case of buffalo meat, export earning was a tad lower in 2020-21 at $3.17 billion ($3.20 billion).Rice (basmati and non-basmati) and sugar are big gainers in export. Obviously, a weaker rupee has helped in boosting export earnings.But, a significant matter of national concern is the large increase in rice and sugar export. In case of sugar, there is a clear production surplus to the extent of 5-6 million tonnes. By exporting large quantities of rice and sugar, the country is actually exporting water.
Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Far from being competitive, our sugar exports are subsidised, something that has attracted international attention. US White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt by hot and dry weather. The North Dakota Wheat Tour estimated yields at just 29.1 bushels per acre, from 43.6 bushels per acre average. World prices might have bottomed and should start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher yesterday as the weather market continued.

Currencies

The Fed’s tightening cycle increases the interest rates and strengthens the US dollar, creating downward pressure on gold.

Metals

Naturally, the gold stocks follow gold higher, amplifying its gains due to their profits leverage to the gold price. Prevailing gold prices varied radically through these modern bull years, running between $257 when gold’s last secular bull was born to August 2020’s latest record high of $2,062. Since it is gold’s own demand-driven seasonality that fuels gold stocks’ seasonality, that’s logically the best place to start to understand what’s likely coming.
Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Price action is very different between bull and bear years, and gold remains in a middle-aged bull market. This gold seasonality is fueled by well-known income-cycle and cultural drivers of outsized gold demand from around the world. Then all gold price action of the following year is calculated off that common indexed baseline, normalizing all years regardless of price levels.
Then gold surged to a major decisive breakout confirming its bull remained alive and well!Its total gains grew to 96.2% over 4.6 years by early August 2020, still modest. Gold’s last mighty bull market ran from April 2001 to August 2011, where it soared 638.2% higher! That’s accomplished by individually indexing each calendar year’s gold price action to its final close of the preceding year, which is recast at 100. We’re interested in bull-market seasonality because gold remains in its latest bull today and bear-market action is quite dissimilar.
Instead, gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year. So during its bull-market years, gold has usually tended to enjoy major autumn rallies driven by these sequential episodes of outsized demand. Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round.
Thus these are the years most relevant to understanding gold’s typical seasonal performance throughout the calendar year. So the bull-market years for gold in modern history ran from 2001 to 2012, skipped the intervening bear-market years of 2013 to 2015, then resumed in 2016 to 2021.
Today gold stocks are once again back at their most bullish seasonal juncture, the transition between the typically drifting summer doldrums and big autumn rallies. So gold trading at an indexed level of 105 simply means it has rallied 5% from the prior year’s close, while 95 shows it is down 5%. But the bruised gold stocks and the metal they mine have trudged through, making it back to the start of their traditional strong season.
All those long years with that vast range of gold levels have to first be rendered in like-percentage terms in order to make them perfectly comparable.

Oil

The numbers look especially flattering compared with the same three-month period last year, when the world faced an unprecedented glut of crude and prices briefly went negative. By many measures, the company’s results look stronger than they have in awhile with oil prices at levels not seen since 2018.

United States

Investing.com Follow Google parent company Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) this week smashed Wall Street’s earnings estimates by producing sales and profit that far exceeded expectations. Google parent company Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) this week smashed Wall Street’s earnings estimates by producing sales and profit that far exceeded expectations. Well, yeah, something changed and one look at the Fed’s balance sheet should explain it.
less The Chicago Business Barometer improved from 66.1 to 73.4 The Fed manufacturing surveys were all in expansion this month were generally about the same as the previous month. Photo: courtesy of Nikola (Nasdaq: NKLA) shares were trading higher Friday after the stock was one of the most talked-about stocks on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum. On the other hand, a hawkish Fed should send the yellow metal lower, as it would boost the expectations of higher bond yields. They also discussed China’s continuing crackdown on technology companies as well as key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed)’s recent meeting.
As was widely expected, the Fed meeting did little to rock the boat and largely stuck to the script, albeit with some subtle changes. Research from our team of in-house analysts has been quoted by The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, USA Today, Kitco, Reuters, US News & World Report, CNBC, and more. He has been quoted in a variety of financial news publications, such as CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post.
Elsewhere, the , Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” is set to snap a five-month losing streak and is now up 16% in July. He is regularly cited in the Wall Street Journal, on CNBC and in the Financial Times. Will the Fed need to adjust the RRP rate again? You will be charged $ + tax (if applicable) for The Wall Street Journal.

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