Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture March 18, 2021



Slavery was also the engine driving the cotton economy, which enriched everyone from banks, shopkeepers, and insurers, too.


Even though their shares have rallied over the past year, both Dollar General and Dollar Tree remain reasonably valued. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4% at 3 p.m. in New York.The dollar’s resilience continues to stun many who had forecast it would wane this year. She expects the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone to appreciate versus the greenback. As Scot Ciccarelli, analyst at RBC Capital, notes in a report, Dollar General’s customer base is more likely to be living paycheck to paycheck even after the pandemic.
After holding long-term support in the $88 area in December 2020, year to date, the US Dollar Index has risen just over 2% and demands close attention. Its net dollar retention rate was 123% and average ACV per domain-based customer increased 40% to $5,103. Share Photo: Jeremy Hogan/Zuma Press By Jinjoo Lee Close March 18, 2021 2:12 pm ET What a year dollar stores have had. Yet Dollar General shares were down as much as 7% Thursday morning, even after posting better-than-expected quarterly sales.
The “low yielders,” such as the euro and the yen, “are likely to underperform on a more medium-term horizon given the widening of rate differentials,” Macleod added. Investors shouldn’t discount these dollar stores’ potential. For Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research, wider U.S.-euro zone rate differentials could trigger an “unwind” in bullish euro-dollar bets.


He covers a wide range of markets, including major and minor FX pair, key commodities including oil and gold and stock indices. less Gold prices remain in flux and yesterday’s FOMC rate decision seems to have done little to help matters. Gold prices began another bullish cycle in Q4 of 2018. In spite of that unusual increase in the headline number, under the surface, there were a lot more silver linings.


U.S. crude prices ended the day down 7.1% at $60 a barrel following their fifth consecutive daily decline. The April East-West 380 fuel oil differential flat $0.00 to $14.00/mt, while the May contract lost $0.50 to $13.50/mt. Even with Thursday’s tumble, oil is still up nearly 25% in 2021.

United States

Consistent with its new monetary policy strategy, the Fed’s projections confirm that merely projecting economic outcomes is not enough to change the stance of monetary policy. The Fed in its latest meeting maintained interest rate near zero with no interest rate hikes through 2023. Nonetheless, the median forecast did include a small inflation overshoot (to an annualized rate of 2.1%) beyond the Fed’s 2% target projected in 2023. The Fed’s median 2021 real GDP forecast rose to 6.5% (versus 4.2% projected in December), and the unemployment rate forecast was revised down to 4.5% for 2021.
The Fed acknowledged the possibility of temporarily higher inflation this year due to the speed of the recovery, relatively low consumer goods inventories, and global freight bottlenecks. Last year, the Fed revised its longer-term monetary policy strategy to focus on a more inclusive measure of maximum employment. March 2021 Blog The lack of market reaction suggests that many investors are not convinced that the Fed’s new guidance represents any material shift in policy.
He said that he expected economic conditions and inflation will adjust faster than either markets or the Fed are expecting. If nothing else, the bond market is telling us price inflation is becoming a thing again, notwithstanding what the Fed might be telegraphing. The Fed’s revised growth outlook did not translate into a large upward revision to their expected path of inflation.
Despite the brighter economic outlook, the median fed funds rate expectation for 2023 remained unchanged at 0.125%. In our view, these changes illustrate the Fed’s commitment to its new monetary policy strategy. (The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is PCE – personal consumption expenditures.) In his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn’t provide many details on the Fed’s asset purchase programs, including when they are likely to begin to slow. This was a pleasant surprise for a stock market bracing for the Fed to be more hawkish, writes John Authers.
But it will keep getting more difficult for the Fed to balance its perma-dovish stance against ever-improving economic data, writes Mohamed El-Erian.
This didn’t stop the Fed from hiking in December of 2018 while also warning of more possible hikes in 2019, with equities continuing to sell-off in the aftermath. The April 21 ULSD CIF NWE cargoes differential was flat from the previous close at $2.00/mt, while the May 21 differential was down $0.25 at $2.75/mt. Last year, it was the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite that led the major stock indexes higher.
The April 21 ULSD CIF Med cargoes differential was up $0.25 from the previous close at $3.75/mt, while the May 21 differential was up $0.25 at $4.25/mt.


Even though the European Union’s health agency said on Thursday that the AstraZeneca vaccine was safe, many analysts still expect the fuel-demand recovery to be bumpy. The Astra vaccine is one of four approved in the EU. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been a supporter of the project.