Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture March 19, 2021



The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production.


The currency du jour, the U.S. dollar, which has held on to its title as the reserve currency of the world for decades, is losing its throne. General Comments: Futures were lower on fund and other speculator selling due to a stronger US Dollar and as some beneficial rains feel in the southern US. The passage of the Covid 19 stimulus package by Congress weakened the US Dollar and helped promote better demand ideas. The US Dollar has started to firm recently and could be hurting demand.
Still, yields rose, stocks fell and the U.S. dollar soared. The Australian dollar was one of the worst performers because retail sales fell 1.1%. Ahead of a busy week, sterling was hit the hardest by the rising U.S. dollar. Everything is at top dollar, says Phillip McKnight, who used to co-own a music store in Phoenix and now has a guitar-focused YouTube channel.


Despite gold’s correction running through Q4’20 which drove gold stocks’ selloff, last quarter still enjoyed the second-highest average gold prices ever witnessed at $1,876. In early August it peaked with gold, the gold stocks’ overwhelmingly-dominant primary driver. less The gold miners’ stocks have suffered an extended correction in recent months, leaving them deeply out of favor. For 19 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the major gold miners’ latest quarterly results right after they are reported.
Yet this sector’s challenging price action of late has cast GDX and the major gold miners it contains off traders’ radars. The major gold stocks plunged into early March, their leading ETF extending its correction to 30.5% over 6.8 months. The major gold miners trade in the US, Australia, South Africa, China, and Canada, making amassing this data somewhat challenging. Australia and South Africa require half-year reporting instead of quarterly, although their gold miners usually give supplemental quarterly updates.
In many cases, these proved the best on record, with miners’ gold output rebounding in Q4 after governments’ COVID-19-lockdown orders hammered Q2 and early-Q3 production. These are the world’s biggest and best gold miners, which command a dominant 86.3% of GDX’s total weighting. So the major gold miners dominating GDX put up blockbuster results then. These elite gold miners’ symbols are listed, some of which are from their primary foreign stock exchanges.
The leading and dominant gold-stock benchmark and trading vehicle today is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. Those are 60 days after year-ends in the US, and a ridiculous 90 days in Canada where most of the world’s gold stocks trade! The lion’s share of capital chasing gold stocks ends up in them. But then the markets threw a low-probability curveball, and gold stocks started slumping again. This ETF essentially weights gold stocks by market capitalizations.
Yet their underlying fundamentals remain incredibly strong, thanks to continuing high prevailing gold prices. That data is followed by each miner’s Q4’20 gold production in ounces, and its year-over-year change from Q4’19’s results. The price of silver may have backed off recently, but its growth from last year tells a story of its own.


Traffic was half of that level just two months ago.Jet fuel has proved to be the weakest link in the oil market since the emergence of Covid-19. A stronger jet fuel market is key to the oil market’s overall recovery. The concerns could even spill into other commodity markets, raising doubts about contracts for oil and natural gas, huge industries in Texas. Mihir Sharma Oil is selling off because of the brutal market math that kicks in whenever prices stay above $60 for very long.
Potentially, even within Europe, down the line, things will pick up,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
The April East-West 380 fuel oil differential gained $0.25 to $14.25/mt, while the May contract flat $0.00 to $13.50/mt.

United States

less Share Tweet Post Email The Federal Reserve will let a significant capital break for big banks expire at month’s end, denying frenzied requests from Wall Street. Eli LakeThe Fed ending a Covid-era break on bank capital may be a first step toward tapering bond purchases. The Fed could revert to letting banks get back to regular capital-distribution practices this year, he predicted. Fed officials said Friday that move was a monetary-policy decision and not directly related to the leverage limit.
In response to the pandemic, the Fed had let lenders load up on Treasuries and deposits without setting aside capital to protect against losses. The former condition has never been the case in the US, though short-selling restrictions upon individual investors led to a robust SSF market in Spain for a time. Now, the Fed is saying the industry has plenty of capital, which raises questions about what’s next with that dividend limit. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that a decision is coming soon on dividends.
Fox, which shares common ownership with The Wall Street Journal parent News Corp, bought streaming outlet Tubi last year for $490 million. Fed officials growing more upbeat on economy and job market, see firmer inflation Source: Federal Reserve Note: Median ests. The Fed lifted GDP growth projection from 4.2% to 6.5% for this year — the fastest pace since 1984. The results were consistent with a New York Fed report that showed the fastest pace of manufacturing growth since late 2018.
less Investing.com Follow Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), the world’s largest chip-maker, has produced a remarkable turnaround this year. The stock has significantly outpaced the Nasdaq 100, which has now erased its year-to-date gains twice as inflation fears hammer growth stocks. Fed officials said Friday they’ll work with the OCC and FDIC to determine what’s next. The Fed has absolutely wanted to create a more hospitable environment for investors to take credit risk, and they have.”Profitless companies have also been among the winners.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), the world’s largest chip-maker, has produced a remarkable turnaround this year. The latest Fed meeting added to anxiety in the sector as it raised the forecasts for growth and inflation. less In addition to the usual Philly Fed indices released yesterday, the report also featured a handful of special questions all of which concerned employment and labor shortages. Fed Funds were around 5% during the late ‘90s through 2001 but had fallen to about 2% by the time SSFs hit the market.