Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture March 30, 2021



With U.S. stocks hitting record highs in March and the Dollar Index rising to 4-month highs, asset managers will need to sell dollars to rebalance their portfolios. (The former lost $1.8 billion for Deutsche Bank in 2008, the latter has interspersed multi-million dollar losses among his significant gains. With that said, a correction in stocks and a good jobs number should be positive for the U.S. dollar. Share Bitcoin’s volatility has limited its adoption for payments, so entrepreneurs created stablecoins: cryptocurrencies pegged to assets such as the U.S. dollar.
Because no official plan sponsor has been picked, another bid is also possible, although that’s unlikely given the multibillion-dollar proposals outlined by Knighthead and Centerbridge. The Canadian and Australian dollars sold off slightly, while the New Zealand dollar was unchanged. Sterling is down against the dollar but up against the euro confused British shares. The euro is still the worst-performing currency.


less Neither the Suez Canal blockade nor the SLR exemption’s expiration should significantly affect gold, whose price is likely to be soon shaped by other factors. Arkadiusz is the author of the monthly Market Overview reports and Gold Monitor News at Sunshine Profits.


OPEC had estimated that oil demand will grow by 5.9 million barrels a day this year as the global economy recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic. After EIA’s report for last week’s build of 204,000 barrels, we expect total gasoline stocks to build by 0.7 million barrels for the week of March 26th. The ship lodged in the Suez Canal is finally free and while oil prices initially fell on the news, they recovered to end the day higher. Within a week of hitting a one-year high, oil futures had surrendered almost $10.
The freeing of the Ever Given container ship yesterday unblocked the Suez Canal and alleviated upward pressure on oil prices. For more details visit the page US East & West Coast Gasoline Import Forecast or copy and paste link in EIKON search box: amers1.apps.cp.extranet.thomsonreuters.biz/cms/?navid=942731478 Your comments are always welcome. The April East-West 380 fuel oil differential lost $0.50 to $13.25/mt, while the May contract flat $0.00 to $12.75/mt.
Meanwhile, oil supplies swelled as Iran ramped up exports to China in defiance of U.S. sanctions. This week Refinitiv data shows only 31,716 bpd set to arrive on 1 vessel: BW JAGUAR (9635858), which will be discharging on Mexico s west coast. The Gasoline Import Forecast of US West Coast stands at 26,000 bpd for the week ending March 26th. (Updates with oil price in final paragraph.) The Suez Canal opened up after days of closure by the grounded supercarrier, helping to shift attention back to fundamentals and the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday.
Crude purchases in Asia slowed as a lackluster tourist season failed to stimulate fuel demand. That particular vessel loaded at Valero s St. Charles, Louisiana, refinery and will be arriving in Manzanillo tomorrow. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at $63.98 a barrel as of 5:54 p.m. in London.

United States

The April 21 ULSD CIF Med cargoes differential was flat from the previous close at $4.50/mt, while the May 21 differential was flat at $4.75/mt. The April 21 ULSD CIF NWE cargoes differential was up $0.25 from the previous close at $3.00/mt, while the May 21 differential was flat at $3.25/mt. In fact, it may be the Fed’s resolute insistence on not bucking to bond vigilantes that ultimately caps bond market volatility. While George Orwell didn’t create the US CPI, it could be an entity in one of his fictional novels about unchecked government socialism and propaganda.
Following the Fed’s March 17 meeting, US Treasury yields have calmed down – even if they remain significantly elevated relative to the start of this year. Yet there is one idea that didn’t occur to me until this morning: on global Wall Street, is it better to fail spectacularly than not at all? It is planning a direct listing on the Nasdaq Stock Market and hasn’t yet announced a date for the offering.
less In this edition of Central Bank Watch, we’ll review the speeches made over the past week by various Federal Reserve policymakers, including the Fed Chair himself.
There’s been a lot of skepticism around AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN), and news like this will increase vaccine hesitancy in Canada and abroad. But demand for the seven-year note at the auction Thursday was weak, perhaps reflecting investor concern on prices despite Fed assurances. AT&T’s video-streaming venture, HBO Max, is also taking shape after some uncertainty about its place in a market dominated by Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Disney (NYSE:DIS).
The recent weakness in major tech stocks has driven a dramatic divergence between the Nasdaq Composite and the other widely watched large-cap indices. The US CPI (consumer price index) seems to include almost everything that is of no consequence to the average citizen and nothing that is. Kaplan (Dallas Fed president) says “there were some dots starting increases in 2022. Bert Dohmen’s analysis often goes totally contrary to accepted “Wall Street wisdom.” He is the original Fed Watcher.
Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and now Jerome Powell all employed the same tactics to goose housing and the stock markets. But the Fed does not consider home prices as inflation. Wall Street didn’t declare the bear market until June 2008. Bert Dohmen has been called “a leading Fed Watcher” by the Wall Street Journal. He considers Fed policy the most important fundamental factor.


*Swiss gained on the EU CHMP licensing its evrisdi to treat 4 variants of infantile spinal muscular atrophy. Merkel’s legacy is at risk as she had to reverse herself on a stricter lockdown for the Easter weekend because of a political backlash. Michael SchumanCan Italy spend the 200 billion euros it is about to receive from the EU?