Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 03, 2020



Open bolls were reported in both regions and Cotton fiber was discolored or else blown out of the bolls due to the rain and winds. The discolored Cotton is getting a chance to recover now as it has turned dry and the fiber can be naturally bleached by the Sun. less COTTON General Comments: Cotton closed lower on trading tied to the higher US Dollar and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak to the US and Europe. The return of the Coronavirus threatens demand potential for Cotton at home and around the world.
Heavy rains returned to the Southeast last week and Cotton could be hurt again. Hurricane Delta moved through the Delta and Southeast a couple of weeks ago and did some damage to Cotton.


The service is still very inexpensive when compared to cable packages, and a dollar or two here or there is not likely to lead to major churn. The move lower looks fueled by broad-based US Dollar selling pressure across major currency pairs with USD price action weakening most notably against AUD, GBP, EUR, and CAD. US Dollar weakness could be due to trader speculation front-running a potential Biden victory and democratic sweep, which would likely correspond with massive fiscal spending.
1 billion USD – Dollar General can now easily buyback 5% of the free float every single year. (Source: Option Generator AM) Since 2012, Dollar has been reducing its share count by 30%, providing clear support to its stock price. US Dollar volatility is expected to be exceptionally high over the next 24-hours according to the latest overnight implied volatility readings. The reduced haven demand for the US dollar is also collaborating with the move higher in the major.
less The US Dollar is getting hammered lower against key FX peers as the November 2020 election gets underway. If this threat materializes, or markets are caught offsides, the US Dollar could stage a face-ripping rebound. If Biden wins the US elections, higher minimum wages will trump Dollar General’s revenues and profits. Psychedelic drug R&D shows the clear potential to revolutionize these multi-billion-dollar treatment markets. (Source: Option Generator AM) The main reason why we like Dollar General?


Lead times for steel delivery at U.S. steel mills remain extended (indicating healthier demand) while steel scrap prices are on the rise. The table below shows that San Dimas makes up over 10% of Wheaton’s quarterly gold production as of FY2019, so the recovery in attributable ounces is a big deal. Prices have surged past $600 per short ton on U.S. steel mills’ back-to-back price hike actions and a recovery in end-market demand, especially in automotive. According to SteelBenchmarker, the benchmark prices for hot rolled band steel hit $616 per net ton on Oct 14, up roughly 9% from $564 net ton two weeks ago.
If the Fed were to curtail its handouts (QE and rate cuts) while the government continues theirs, the stock market could stagnate while gold would continue to rally. less It appears that both gold and stock market investors believe the winner of the US election (held today) will be more money printing and debt. Currently, Wheaton holds a 100% silver stream and 50% gold stream on the massive Peruvian copper mine.
After gaining some traction during the second quarter, steel prices again came under significant pressure in July and August on demand weakness. The bottom line: From both a risk and potential reward perspective, gold looks like the best asset to own going into 2021. Meanwhile, the average gold (GLD) price jumped from $1,670/oz to $1,885/oz, a nearly 13% increase. The average silver (SLV) price to finish Q2 came in at ~$16.30/oz and improved to over ~$22.50/oz to finish Q3.
This would put EAF Steel spot prices back to the $8,000 level, in our opinion.
Our rationale is based on extremely strong and improving trends in steel production. Steel demand amplifies at high GDP rates, and we could see a massive swing.


Early on Monday morning, oil prices crashed. Oil services ETF called OIH was up 5.6%, putting it up 11.4% in the past 3 days. At one point, WTI was at $34 which meant it was down about 18% in less than 10 days.

United States

With Election Day upon us, below we take a look at the biggest winners and losers across financial markets during the Trump Presidency from Election Day 2016 through today. The stock market is back in bull mode with only a tiny number of what Mr. Trump would call losers, only one of which is not a US stock. Meanwhile, markets have moved past the dovish Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision, as all eyes remain centered on the outcome of the US election.
The Fed’s actions over the past decade have been good for government bonds and the stock market, but they have come at a horrifying expense for Main Street. Willie Geist raised the possibility that President Trump could declare victory on election night before all the votes have been counted. The stock market can do well, but only if government and Fed handouts continue. Not every country has seen stock market gains since Trump was elected. If the Fed doesn’t provide more QE, the government may be forced to essentially take over the Fed and order it to print money as the government sees fit.
So while Trump’s path to victory looks narrow, SocGen’s FX strategist Jason Daw asks “and suggests a trade to hedge said “unthinkable” event. A Trump win could take longer to become apparent than a Biden win. However, according to Paddy Power, the numbers are massive, with 93% of bets being placed on a Trump victory over the last 24 hours. This scenario contemplates the likeliness of extra stimulus in the near term as well as a multilateral approach to the US-China trade conflict.
It’s normal for part-time gamblers to make late bets on the underdog, which according to the polls is Trump, because they are guaranteed higher returns. Based on the electoral map, I still cannot see a path to a Trump victory, 270 electoral votes. “We’ll be doing coverage on Peacock and we can assure you if Trump declares victory we’ll say, don’t take the feed. President Trump has already indicated he will pass a a major stimulus that boosts growth in 2021.
Whatever happened with the trade war certainly didn’t hurt the US and China versus the rest of the world on a relative basis. That’s almost certainly true, but what happens if the fed becomes less keen to continue its accommodation? This is especially true in the US where the drought is a thing of the past for much of the western Great Plains. Investing.com Follow Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock is having a rough ride these days.