Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 09, 2020



less General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher as the weather turned better for crop development. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmers hold the Wheat back due to the drought. Northern areas should see dry weather this week and showers this weekend. Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather.


less The Canadian Dollar is soaring against anti-risk FX peers like the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. At the end of the first week of November, the exchange rate between the dollar and the real appeared to be turning higher with the Brazilian currency strengthening. Likely owing to the latest coronavirus vaccine headlines, an eye-popping rally by crude oil prices stands out as a primary driver of Canadian Dollar strength. Petrobras (PBR) and VALE SA (VALE) are Brazilian commodity producers that move higher and lower with raw materials prices and the Brazilian currency’s value against the US dollar.
In 2011, the exchange rate between the Brazilian real and the US dollar, the world’s reserve currency, peaked at $0.65095. The value of the dollar and other fiat currencies are likely to lose purchasing power as the money supply swells. Recent Canadian Dollar strength against the Greenback briefly pushed the major currency pair below the 1.2950-price mark, but spot USD/CAD bulls are currently attempting to defend 2019 lows.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian real moved higher against the dollar, which could be the start of a long-overdue recovery. Figure 2 shows the main PPP ‘fair’ value rate of the G9 currencies versus the US dollar. Dollar net expansion was 110% (consistent with the previous quarter), highlighting the strong expansion motion by existing customers. We want everyone to know we have never used a dollar of deposit money in the history of our company.”
We want everyone to know we have never used a dollar of deposit money in the history of our company. In the case of the S&P 500 Index, 73 percent of the growth of each dollar invested occurred in the last two months. Hence, as volatility remains low in the coming weeks, we expect demand for the euro to remain strong, which could levitate the EURUSD above its near-term resistance at 1.20. Using the current US/Canadian dollar currency exchange ratio of 1.307, that equates to US$10.33 billion.
The dollar is the world’s reserve currency. In the aftermath of the US election last week, the dollar index turned lower. In fact, if anything, they had gotten worse as the dollar continued to fall and the violence in the Middle East escalated. This is largely priced in by the market and we think that EURUSD will gradually move higher and break through its ST resistance of 1.20 in the near term. after it claimed in 2018 it “hadn’t spent a single dollar” of the deposits.


Riot appears comparable to investing in a junior gold miner, which may also be a good investment over the next year, but Riot will be sensitive to Bitcoin. I would think that lithium, cobalt, graphite, and nickel supply would not be able to even come close to keeping up to this scale of demand ramp. Nickel is the lowest due to perhaps no nickel in future energy storage products (LFP instead) and the nickel market already is very big. As is the case for gold miners, Bitcoin miners are likely to have leveraged moves to any significant price changes to the underlying commodities.
Such concern is likely the driving factor behind gold and silver price increases. If there are to be large cap Bitcoin miners in the future, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) has the potential to become the first domestic large cap Bitcoin miner. Little wonder Musk is talking to every large nickel miner right now, and has signed lithium deals with multiple companies. In fact the Can anyone supply Tesla with 86x more lithium (than 2019 levels), 43x more cobalt, 86x more graphite, and 58x more nickel?
Since August, though, the company has dramatically increased its miner acquisition rate.
Riot indicated that all their new miner purchases are being funded with available working capital.


But from the market’s perspective, and this is important to point out, it’s the probability of returning back to normal that has jolted energy stocks and oil higher. On the other hand, if a return of risk aversion and reversal in crude oil prices materializes, this could fuel a rebound higher in USD/CAD price action. For the oil market, the renewed surge in COVID-19 case counts in the West will give OPEC+ more reasons than ever to hit the pause button. As such, spot USD/CAD tends to move lower as the Loonie strengthens on the back of higher crude oil prices.
The category stopped on May 21 to demand a reduction in diesel oil prices – which have risen more than 50% in the last 12 months. So assuming this is the case, the drop in US oil production will not be offset by even a full production return from OPEC+. This means that the market will be wide open for OPEC+ to not only stop cutting but also to use up all of its spare capacity. Petrobras (PBR) produces and sells oil and gas in Brazil and internationally.
At the end of 2019, and assuming that’s where demand recovers back to, OPEC had a spare capacity of ~3.9 mb/d, and that’s inclusive of Iran. By fuel type, the company offers three sources of “clean” energy buses in its portfolio: Propane, Gasoline, Electric, and CNG. This, however, does not change the near-term demand implications from government shutdowns, which means OPEC+ will likely still follow through on their 3-month extension.
As well, in 1973, there was an Independent Trucker Shutdown during the oil crisis. This segment also includes natural gas distribution to Quebec and New Brunswick, Canada. If so, then OPEC really only has a spare capacity of ~3 mb/d give or take. However, Enbridge does own 28% of the 570,000-barrel-per-day pipeline Dakota Access Pipeline (“DAPL”) – or a net 159,600 bpd. As we’ve seen in today’s ADIPEC 2020 appearance by the Saudi Energy Minister, the message is that OPEC+ will remain flexible.

United States

Also, action on the stimulus package, as well as Fed action, will move the market short term. The time has long past for President Trump to fully demand his executive cabinet members declassify the evidence outlining intrusive government surveillance upon not only himself, but all Americans. “As his tenure may be coming to an end, in a move that could put him further at odds with President Donald Trump,” NBC wrote last week. With the media announcing a Joe Biden victory in the US election, it seems likely that we will see easing tension with countries like China.
The US remains divided, but the coronavirus’s economic travails will continue to require a massive stimulus to rebuild the economy. The company generates 93.5% of its total sales from new school bus sales through a network of 51 independent dealers in the U.S and Canada. Finally, the Fed is literally begging Congress for additional stimulus (emphasis added): In these cases, direct fiscal support may be needed.
So without the US shale growth engine, the world is staring into a multi-year period of lower supplies and higher demand.
These numbers are larger than the UBS 100% EV world scenario as they also factor in energy storage demand to get to a 100% renewable energy grid. That’s a lot better than the $581.6 million (-11% y/y) that Wall Street was expecting, which would have represented the same level of decline as in Q2. – Q3 call Additionally, school buses still play a critical role in the education system, providing transportation to nearly 50% of the growing U.S student population. In 2013, BGCP sold its eSpeed – fully electronic trading platform ($133 million in 2012 revenue) to NASDAQ for a total of $1.2 Billion.
Starting in 2021, the President-elect Biden will take over from President Trump, who lost a close election last week. At the ensuing press conference, here is how the Fed described the current economic situation: Economic activity has continued to recover from its depressed second-quarter level. During the last few months, the Fed has spoken with a unified voice: all Fed governors have been very vocal about needing additional federal funding.
It is uncertain how long the economic gloom will continue but the Fed anticipates that the situation will start returning to normal in 2022. Only in 2019, after overly tight money had done a lot of economic and political damage, did the Fed relent and target lower rates. Esper reportedly strongly opposed Trump efforts to send active duty troops to hot spots that had seen widespread rioting and looting. Esper had also been attempting to rename – such as Fort Bragg, Fort Hood and eight other Army posts – a move opposed by President Trump.
The prospects for a massive stimulus package under the new Biden administration weighed on the US currency.


Beijing, China-based Genetron was founded in 2014 to develop precision oncology diagnosis, monitoring and research services in China, covering the full cycle of cancer care.


Meanwhile, the European Union imposing duty on US molasses and orange juice over the Boeing Airbus battle.