Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 11, 2020



General Comments: Cotton closed a little lower in response to the USDA reports that were considered mostly neutral by the trade. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought. Northern areas should see dry weather this week and showers this weekend. General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were a little higher in response to the USDA reports. Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather.


In the short to medium term, the dollar certainly could rise more – especially if further waves of COVID-19 stress financial markets and trigger a flight to safety. This might present headwinds to USD/CAD price action in turn, particularly if trader risk appetite keeps the US Dollar bogged down given its posturing as a top safe-haven currency. This is considering the strong positive correlation between crude oil and the Canadian Dollar typically observed.
Alaris is facing headwinds from a strengthening Canadian dollar, but in the grand scheme of things, that is likely to knock 1-2 cents off that $0.45 at worst. Figure 4 Source: Eikon Reuters, Bloomberg Eventually, the last important driver of precious metals and SLV in the short run is the US dollar. Canadian Dollar bulls seem to be taking a breather and easing off the bid at the moment. Similarly, the yen-dollar exchange rate has hardly moved during the pandemic, but varied between ¥90 and ¥123 to the dollar in the Great Recession.
Dollar net expansion is tied to ARR, and it naturally tracks ARR growth. On Monday the dollar had a ferocious rally, moving up from 15.87mg gold to 16.77mg and from 1.21g silver to 1.32g. Alaris has expenses in Canadian dollar while bulk of its revenues come from the US.


With an inception year of 2006, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is the oldest ETF containing physical silver, held by a third party in New York and London. Like the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SLV provides a vehicle to invest in silver for entities that cannot invest in the physical metal. In mainstream terms, the price of gold dropped about a hundred bucks, and the price of silver crashed $2.20. In addition, the vulnerability of the stock market in recent months has also weighed on silver, which is down 20 percent from its August high.
The company’s excellent overall performance led to a dividend increase of a nickel a share – from $1.20/share to $1.25/share (+4.2%). Safe haven areas like gold and government bonds fell.


The broad consensus for the oil market has been that, with a vaccine, oil prices should improve as industry picks up and people start to travel again. During periods of rapidly rising oil prices, wholesale prices tend to rise faster than do retail prices, and retail margins contract. As shown below, its petroleum product sales in the 3Q20 were $2.056 billion, down from $2.966 billion in the 3Q19 due to lower oil prices and lower gasoline consumption. The VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH – Free Report), which holds 25 largest US-listed oil services companies, surged more than 18%.
Commercial and industrial markets, particularly oil and gas customers remain a challenge headed into 2021 but can begin growing again after the pandemic. The risk is that if oil prices spike on the back of a vaccine, its margins could get squeezed. To that end, a pullback in crude oil prices from current levels could help facilitate the move higher by USD/CAD. Bull 2x Shares ETF (GUSH), the 2X leveraged ETF by Direxion, affords investors opportunities to take on leveraged risk linked to global oil & gas production.
Monday, Nov. 9 some of the more traditional firms were back in favor – oil and gas, airlines, and others battered by the pandemic. However, the oil price collapse enabled MUSA to realize strong margins in the first half of 2020. Key highlights on my thesis for global energy include: I invite you to read an interesting article on oil price dynamics under different administrations published by the Financial Times.
Beijing based SIA Energy estimates that oil demand will grow 9% in 2020, to 16.4 million barrels per day.
For example, for the first quarter of 2019, oil prices spiked, which depressed the profit margin. Consequently, the ETF should be part of a trader’s tactical toolkit, allowing for swift positioning in oil & gas assets on short-term material news. “We anticipate that this recovery path in energy demand growth in India will sustain in the coming months,” oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan concluded. Source: Reddit I won’t bore you with more stories like this from government users, oil & gas companies, and warfighters.
A long/short Model portfolio is continuously updated, along with on-going analysis of the oil market. The COVID-19 pandemic impacted gasoline demand and gasoline sales as the work-from-home and virtual school environment affected many areas. 11, 2020 12:52 PM ET|| About: Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. The Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp.

United States

Most Trump supporters still think that Trump will end up winning, and most Biden supporters are absolutely convinced that they have this election in the bag. Of course many Trump supporters are hoping that a Harris administration will never materialize because Trump wins a second term. The company is suffering from some setbacks such as delayed production of 7nm chips, Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) decision to move away from Intel chips, and strong competition from AMD (NASDAQ:AMD).
The freshly elected Biden administration will have an unequivocal impact on the global energy outlook, expressly given that his policies remain so unlike those of the Trump administration. Indeed, Democratic leaders declared before this election that Trump could not win by stealing votes and Hillary Clinton told Biden not to concede under any circumstances. Trump has alleged voter fraud and said any declarations of victory are premature, with his campaign having launched multiple legal challenges in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan.
At this moment, tens of millions of Trump supporters believe that the Democrats stole the election. Its debt/EBITDA is currently around 7.3x, or junk levels.Excitement over a COVID-19 vaccine could trump GE’s balance sheet issues. So, if we look at this earlier projection, we see that Fed officials believed that, overall, the U.S. economy would show a decline of 6.5 percent this year. On Monday, President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign filed a suit in Wayne County Circuit Court alleging voter fraud in ballot-counting procedures.
We saw that the Trump tax reform of 2017 went primarily into the financial circuit, into stock buybacks and dividends, and not into productive economic output. Granted, September was a bad month for overall fund flows, but sustainable funds appear to be on a secular growth path that hasn’t experienced the same ups and downs. News earlier this week that Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) has a vaccine against COVID-19 that is 90% effective lifted airline stocks.
But for a moment, let’s assume that Trump’s legal team is successful.
Tencent’s WeChat app even provoked an attack from the Trump Administration. This created a lot of uncertainty in the market given Intel’s lack of options and the US-China trade war. The antitrust issues involving China’s tech leviathans mirror the anti-trust push in the US, as Big Tech has provoked a full-court anti-trust press from the DoJ. The rains in the midwestern parts of the US are the most substantial and will have helped solve the longer term drought problem out there.
As a reminder, in Q3, DB’s revenue from fixed income trading jumped 47% last quarter, beating all but one of the large Wall Street peers. Buybacks are cheered and will always trump investments into a company’s future.


The EU has already signed deals with other vaccine makers including AstraZeneca and Sanofi, and has reportedly been in talks with others, including Novavax and Moderna. The United States agreed to pay $19.50 per shot for 100 million doses, a smaller volume than the EU. The EU official said the EU had agreed a price that was closer to $20 than to $10 but declined to give a precise figure. Immediately, we see the Pfizer vaccine is still priced higher than in other deals struck by the EU.
All of this is contingent on the vaccine being approved by the EU regulator, the European Medicines Agecy, of course.