Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 12, 2020



A bad cocoa bean crop or the discovery of a new precious metal mine strongly influenced commodity barter in ancient times. less General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on news that Russia would not institute a quota system for exports until at least mid-February. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought. Northern areas should see dry weather this week and showers this weekend. Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather.
The move could hurt demand for US Wheat over time.


Intel needs new management before I put another dollar toward it in my portfolio. Our infrastructure portfolio was an early investor in EdgeConneX, which was just acquired by EQT in a multi-billion dollar transaction. Various stockholders will end up with pennies on the dollar, at most, but this is common. Yields on euro area government bonds also rose on the vaccine news.


If you trade a silver ETP which is holding silver futures instead of physical silver, you will be buying or selling one of the above contracts. In other words, this tells you the likelihood that silver will be higher compared to the recent trend in silver’s returns. Silver markets are likely to rally over the next year due to the recent market volatility. In other words, when market volatility is rising, investors tend to look for more safe assets and, in the process, end up shifting capital into silver.
I have created a few different studies which help me time the silver markets, and several of these studies are giving strongly bullish signals at this point. I believe that the fundamentals are lining up for a strong run in silver markets and buying SLV at these levels makes for a good play. What it shows is the percent probability that the next 12 months are higher for silver grouped by the number of months in the last year which was positive.
One of these key studies I rely on is overall market volatility versus future changes in silver. The key idea behind this study is that investors tend to move the capital to the silver markets after periods of volatility in the S&P 500. For example, since 1991, when we’ve seen the VIX rise to the levels it has recently been, silver rose in value 80% of the time over the next year. Historically speaking, this would say that there’s a 58% chance that silver will be higher over the next year.
In other words, silver exhibits momentum – when it has been performing well, this good performance tends to lead to upside performance. If you were to hold this futures contract until expiry, you would lose 2.8% (compared to the spot return of silver) from the convergence over the time held. This is the current futures curve showing the prices a trader could make or take delivery of silver by the date of delivery. However, if you’re interested in shopping around for different silver ETPs, I believe that you’ll, ultimately, find that SLV remains one of the best options.
This type of movement in the VIX actually has a fairly strong predictive call on future changes in silver. SLV’s physical holdings mean that you will have no roll yield issues and its AUM allows investors a relatively low-cost method of trading silver. However, another study I’m monitoring is that between patterns in silver market returns and the future movements in the commodity. While the technical standpoint is not very noteworthy for silver, I believe the long-run fundamentals are actually fairly bullish for the commodity.
Put simply, SLV is a fairly simple ETF: it holds physical silver in proportion to its assets under management with a 0.50% expense ratio.


When considered in aggregate, natural gas prices may be going substantially higher, existing production may be revalued higher, and second tier inventory may become more economic. The report provides an unusually in-depth analysis of CNX’s remaining natural gas focused Marcellus and Utica shale inventory and compares it to claims made in CNX’s investor presentation. Even the smaller players like Torc Oil & Gas (OTCPK:VREYF) and Surge Energy (OTCPK:ZPTAF) were able to pay off a good amount of debt this last quarter.
Many of the heavy oil producers have many decades of oil reserves remaining. Oil prices have been buoyant this week, though, with West Texas Intermediate crude fetching about $42 a barrel, up nearly $5 in the past week. We saw some further consolidation in the space, with Tourmaline (OTCPK:TRMLF), a company which focuses on natural gas, having acquired two private producers for $526 million. Rapidly dwindling inventory is bullish for natural gas.
Furthermore, many Canadian oil companies generated free cash flow in Q3, even though WTI was around $40 a barrel. Despite the recent run-up, it’s interesting to see how cheap shares still are, despite the improved medium-term outlook on oil. Renewable energy tends to lean toward a Democratic victory, while coal and oil are more Republican-leaning. The announcement of a promising vaccine by Pfizer and continuing weekly crude draws give some room for optimism regarding the future of the energy industry.
Stocks and Sector performance.Crude Oil Draws since June and implications.Earnings Expectations by Sector. Canada produces mostly heavy oil from the oilsands.

United States

The important feature is that it resembles the graph of the global business cycle – probably because the US economy is so dominant within the global economy. The spike in the yield—bond prices move inversely to yields—more than made up for dimmer prospects for fiscal stimulus after the mixed result from the US election. Nor is the Fed likely to abandon its near-zero interest rate policy anytime soon, which many analysts see as a check on bond yields.
Lewandowski reportedly tested positive Wednesday; he has been in Philadelphia all week as the Trump campaign has continued to bring lawsuits related to the election results. The continuing saga of loser President Trump’s attempts to force a recount unlikely to change the election’s outcome continues to befuddle markets. The removal of the CDC no-sail order appeared a move made due to pressure from the Trump administration and not a desired move by the CDC. In this case, volume analysis from a fractal last produced at the highs of 2017 and 2018 shows support near the US$15,000 price zone.
One day after CBS News announced that Joe Biden is planning a ‘sweeping reversal’ of President Trump’s immigration agenda, by someone from within the agency. Another key indicator is wages, perhaps the most important driver of inflation in the US consumer-based economy. It denounces Trump for what it considers suppression tactics while remaining silent as Friedman calls for dilution tactics in the election.
– Reversing the Trump administration’s policy of restricting migration due to the COVID-19 pandemic. – Introducing amnesty legislation allowing around 11 million illegal aliens already in the US to legalize their status.
Composite: George Downs/The Wall Street Journal By Jon Sindreu Close Nov. 12, 2020 12:54 pm ET Sometimes good news can come at an embarrassing time. This decision involves a view on the growth differential between the US and a particular foreign economy. So far, the threatened Trump ban of WeChat has only caused more U.S. downloads of the app, as customers want to get the app before it is banned.
– Scrapping Trump’s policy of requiring non-Mexican migrants at the southern border to wait out the duration of their US asylum case in Mexico. The fund may appeal to investors looking to diversify some of their capital away from the US markets. The above graph shows the OECD indicator of the US business cycle. Aside from the pandemic, the Fed is still far from reaching its 2% target for inflation. He considers Fed policy the most important fundamental factor.


The European Union proceeded on Tuesday with its second issue of bonds to support its SURE unemployment program.