Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 18, 2020



On the Corn Front, the whispers in the market is more U.S. demand for corn exports which had the market close higher yesterday. The USDA announced 197(mt) of U.S. corn to Mexico with no new sales to China but they are trying to make a market. We also saw funds buy 3,000 corn yesterday and should put the guesstimate at net-long 250,000 contracts. The Ukraine feeders have asked for export quota’s while Russia domestic corn prices are at a record high. In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 522 ¾ which is 2 ½ cents higher.
Reports indicate that some Cotton could have been damaged in Georgia and the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia due to the excessive rains caused by the hurricanes.


That multiple expansion is a significant part of what we can expect will contribute to the company achieving a quarter trillion dollar market capitalization. Dollar Tree has now delivered 48 consecutive quarters of positive same-store sales, and ten consecutive quarters with two-year stacked comps exceeding 6%. Same-store sales for the Dollar Tree-branded shops rose 3.1%, which was about what we expected, but Family Dollar did incredibly well. The only good news is that we’re seeing a weaker dollar at this point, which will provide a tailwind when international revenues are converted back for the income statement.
Sales have been positive at Family Dollar and are no longer dragging down performance. We see an opportunity in Dollar Tree longer term, though there is, of course, a lot of competition. Additionally, the company completed 76 renovations to the Family Dollar H2 format. This is evidenced by same-store sales at Family Dollar now being positive.
Make no mistake, Dollar Tree is in a highly competitive segment of retail, and we do expect competition to ramp up in the future. Same-store sales for Family Dollar stores were also up 11.6%. This was similar to other retailers, but the cost pricing in a downturn makes Dollar Tree look attractive. That’s a several billion dollar debt reduction. Gross profit on a dollar basis was $265 million, down 31% Y/Y. Dollar Tree is still a winner. That’s the million dollar question.


Governments don’t like gold and Bitcoin because it takes away their power to track transactions, tax, and “stimulate” the economy through money printing. While this could seem far-fetched, remember that, as recently as 1933, gold ownership was illegalized.


We also write daily and weekly reports, covering key variables in the U.S. natural gas market (supply, demand, storage, prices, and more). They also reduce the dependence upon orders from the upstream natural gas and oil business. Source: Bluegold Research estimates and calculations This week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration should report a larger change in natural gas storage compared to the previous week. Despite large heating degree day gains overnight, natural gas futures are unable to muster any sense of recovery.
However, management is doing what it can to add steady business that would be there when the oil and gas business declines cyclically as it has in the past. As it pertains to price, if the bearish weather projections actually turn into reality as we get into December, it’s hard to see natural gas not sell-off more. Again, the key for the natural gas bulls is not only for the weather to turn colder than normal but also for it to stay there.
Total average daily consumption of natural gas (in the contiguous United States) should be somewhere between 84 bcf/d and 86 bcf/d. The company will continue to have a significant presence in the upstream and midstream oil and gas business. Large orders have long been the “backbone” of the dominant oil and gas business. As shown above, the natural gas business appears to be booming. That last happened in 2016 when the orders from the oil and gas industry literally dropped to zero for a quarter.
Acquisitions will likely increase the company presence in oil and gas. Union leaders are urging the state to raise taxes on gasoline or stock trades before approving more layoffs at the MTA.

United States

We think utilizing debt for a massive all cash position of a company like Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD), with 30-year debt at 2.55%, could drive strong value. When the Fed backs off, whether by its design or due to inflation, slower economic growth, or massive debt overhead, rich valuations will matter. The uncertainty proxy has been rising into the third quarter of the year ahead of the US election. When Palantir first started trading in the market, Wall Street’s perceptions were initially more focused on the risks and the uncertainties around the company’s business model.
Powell’s answer, like the Fed’s token answer to just about everything these days, was to keep rates low for longer. Because more economic pain means even more Fed intervention (especially in a world where the Congress is hopelessly deadlocked on additional fiscal stimulus). We proxy uncertainty via the monthly uncertainty indices constructed by Baker, Bloom and Davis for the US.
Overall, the bond market may be picking up on signs of a potential double-dip recession, working its way into the US economy. The coronavirus isn’t going away anytime soon, and there’s been no progress made on a second stimulus bill in the US. The Fed will continue to supply liquidity, which will help the market ignore the reality of the barometers shown above. Additionally, a massive bet was placed against the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) at the open interest levels for the April $265 strike price.
via enhancing a trend of declining uncertainty following the US election. ” However, this perception is clearly changing now, and Wall Street seems to be starting to understand the massive upside potential that Palantir has to offer. But the Q3 slump was even worse, as sales were down by , while Wall Street had expected a much stronger result. As we wrote: “The new paradigm of weak recoveries is due to the Fed’s policy prescription for recessions; debt-fueled consumption. However, the past decade has mostly seen small-caps lag large-caps, especially in the US.
Just over a month ago, it announced its intention to acquire MyoKardia (NASDAQ:MYOK) in a $13.1 billion all-cash acquisition, at a more than 60% premium. NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) has emerged as the best-performing chip stock during this global health crisis. Investors probably de-risked their position too much in anticipation of the US election. It also comes as a second coronavirus wave ravages parts of Europe and the US.