Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture November 24, 2020

Agriculture

On the Corn front, the USDA said the U.S. corn and soybean harvest are officially over. As you can see, I share my price and volume assumptions, cost assumptions based on that volume, price of corn, as well as SG&A and other costs. While in parts of the country might still have corn and soybean to harvest, statistically, the season is over. There are whispers of more corn sales to the unknown, while commercials and funds rollout of December to March contracts, with the funds net-long and the commercials net-short.
Ethanol has been a big source of demand for domestic corn, even though sharply curbed by global fuel consumption. I have already witnessed a variety of speculation longs for 2021 in corn and soybeans to date. In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 417 ½ which is 9 cents lower. USDA said that Winter Wheat is now 89% emerged, from 85% last week, 96% last year, and 88% average. The market in Russia has remained high on limited supply as farmer hold the Wheat back due to the drought.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry weather.

Currencies

A weaker U.S. dollar may also make emerging markets more competitive. Nonetheless, Sumo Logic’s dollar-based net retention rate has fluctuated between approximately 120% and 135%, which is quite satisfactory as far as SaaS stocks go. The U.S. Dollar Index is down more than 3% year-to-date.

Metals

The earnings of the firms are highly tied to the prices of silver and when silver rallies, SLVP tends to outpace the strength of the gains seen. SLVP’s returns are highly correlated and responsive to price appreciation in silver – if silver rallies, SLVP tends to outpace the rally. Source: TradingView In my opinion, this pullback in price represents a strong buying opportunity – silver prices are falling, and the underlying fundamental thesis for silver remains strong.
The iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miners ETF is an ETP which is following the MSCI ACWI Select Silver Miners Investable Market Index. For example, on average, when we see silver rally by around this much in a given year, the next year averages a return of 32%. This tends to lead to investors shifting funds into silver at higher rates than other times of the year, which can be seen in the above data. Source: Author’s calculations of LMBA data This shows a very clear trend in that the start of the year tends to see uplift in the price of silver.
In the article, titled “Gold Is a Hedge Against Bad Government Decisions,” Dillian argues that investors mistakenly believe that gold is a hedge against inflation and stock market crashes. An additional metric which I believe is suggestive of higher silver prices in the coming months is the clear seasonality present in the data. Silver is likely going to rally over the coming 3-12 months due to momentum and seasonal effects.
Specifically, I believe that silver miners are going to shine over the next year and that a purchase now is a solid move. #JPMorgan Pays A KICK BACK aka BRIBE To #CFTC For Manipulation of #Gold & #Silver Prices. It specifically targets companies which are highly dependent on silver prices for earnings and includes securities across the market capitalization spectrum. For example, here’s the cumulative return of buying and holding silver during these first two months using data since 1968.
Within the silver miner ETP space, SLVP is one of the lesser followed ETFs with most of the market share going to the popular Global X competitor SIL.
For example, across this broad dataset, we have seen silver rally in about 63-65% of all Januaries and Februaries in the data. One of the major fundamental themes I monitor in the silver markets is momentum: past strength tends to beget future strength. All this said, let’s turn our attention to the silver market fundamentals to attempt to assess where prices are likely headed. Historically speaking, when silver has rallied by this amount over a year, the odds tend to support further upside.
What this tells me is that historically speaking at least, SLVP tends to be a very strong option for playing a rally in silver.

Oil

Roughly 45% of the current capex budget is earmarked for electric utility operations including existing generation, 41% for natural gas utility operations, and 14% for new renewable power generation. From 2020 to 2024, management has outlined a $12.5 billion capital investment plan to improve electric distribution, natural gas pipe replacement, and additions to solar and wind power generation. Not all precious metal investors are comfortable buying price weakness in volatile mining stocks, but most of them like the oil and gas sector.
Electric utilities may be preferred by investors due to the nationwide push for renewable energy build-out and an anti-natural gas sentiment growing in the US. Investors can “energize” their portfolios for 2021 with a decent allocation to oil and gas. That’s good news for natural gas! Oil prices are up again on hopes that travel and airplanes will do better next year and economies will grow. Line 5 is part of a network that delivers oil from western Canada throughout the eastern US, including refineries in Michigan, Ohio, and Ontario.
Source: US Navy The Russian destroyer was said to be tailing the American vessel and reportedly conveyed a verbal warning that it could be subject to ramming.

United States

The dividend return may well become of more consequence in the future, but in the current market environment (super low-interest rate, Fed backstop, pandemic, etc.) Although it’s hard to remember, before Trump came along, the media would at least occasionally report rather objectively about actual news, both foreign and domestic. After the warming was issued and the Admiral Vinogradov changed its course, the USS John S. McCain destroyer returned to international waters,” the statement said.
According to Russian media sources: The communiqué added that sailors had told the American ship of the The US navy has not yet issued a response. “Obama embraced the US drone program, overseeing more strikes in his first year than Bush carried out during his entire presidency. Home to the mega-cap tech names driving the bull market of the past decade, NASDAQ 100 has climbed over 40% year-to-date. The bank also has a 42% ownership stake in trading platform and broker TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ:AMTD), as well as a rapidly-expanding credit card portfolio.
The portfolio performed well over the past three months – significantly out performing the DJIA, the S&P500, and the NASDAQ-100 as representative by the triple Q’s.
In case you missed it, the Trump Administration announced Monday evening that the GSA would begin to cooperate with the President-elect transition. The index, which is rebalanced quarterly and reconstituted annually, comprises securities of the next generation of NASDAQ-listed non-financial companies. There could be big moves but its more likely to come from coronavirus headlines or President Trump’s political actions.
Earlier today, leading food products company, Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) reported earnings that failed to impress Wall Street. Now, we expand that discussion with another ETF:The Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (NASDAQ:QQQJ) provides exposure to the 101st to the 200th non-financial largest companies on the NASDAQ. “Smooth market functioning” the Fed calls the asset bubble they have unleashed. My exposure thesis remains for both of those as they are either listed or in the process of being listed on the NASDAQ.
He has been quoted in a variety of financial news publications, such as CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post. Fed and ECB signaling more stimulus to come and yet, no new highs on $SPX and $NDX. Nor do the media ever report Trump’s accomplishments. The S&P 500 is up 12 percent this year and the Nasdaq Composite is stronger still, gaining 34 percent. Russia claims the submarine hunting US Navy ship USS John S McCain .

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