Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 05, 2020



These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. The world demand for US Wheat depends mostly on lower prices for US Wheat to compete with Russia, Europe, and other sellers. Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Winter production were down, but increases were noted for White Winter, Durum, and Other Spring Wheat.


In context then an updated view of the US dollar: The dollar indeed rejected from the technical pivot and is now forming a potential cup and handle pattern. Keep in mind, though, the election is only one driving force and the Dollar may quickly shift its focus to a more pressing set of fundamental factors. Tesla, the EV industry leader, patented their single crystal cathode for their million dollar battery earlier this year. … But again, gold is going up regardless of the outcome of the election, and the dollar is going down.
Overall, Peter said he was surprised that the dollar didn’t fall more and that we didn’t see a bigger rally in gold and silver on the news. We think the US dollar remains the risk-off asset to hold at the moment and we also like low-correlated equity sectors such as global mining. The deal will result in a one-time gain of around $65 million, just over a dollar per share. The U.S. Dollar often follows an interesting sequence in historical election years.
Indeed, the picture gets much clearer on an absolute dollar basis. Coupled with this demand is the fact that the US dollar had a 3rd quarter to forget. Source: Bloomberg But then again, the dollar did continues its recent renewed decline… So while the euro is strong right now, it will be difficult for the currency to sustain its gains with clear signs of slowdown in the recovery.


European steel plants are looking at lower forward iron ore prices, and for higher steel prices and demand to sustain improved margins into 2021. (Source: Company IR) We recognize the strengths of Avino Silver & Gold Mines as a high-quality junior miner with a world-class asset base and overall solid fundamentals. The data here suggests overall positive fundamental tailwinds to the silver market supporting a continued bullish outlook for the metal. The stock is still up over 76% this year supported by the higher silver pricing environment but down about 33% from highs in August highlighting significant volatility.
Risks here include a deterioration to the silver commodity price while monitoring points for the company will be production level updates. Our service also manages two model Portfolios – and provides an in-depth study on the market, gold, crude oil, and natural gas next moves. Moves to invest in new facilities to lower emissions hinge on underlying steel operating metrics attracting capital for Europe’s steel sector.
The sharp rise in copper prices, lumber, and manufacturing employment confirmed the new business cycle started with a vengeance. The spreads show the steel industry moving back toward profitability after several quarters of weak margins. Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO), HEAR, UCO, Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2x Shares ETF (NUGT), and Mallinckrodt plc (MNK) were sold. (NYSE:ASM) is a primary silver producer and explorer with mining assets in Mexico.
5, 2020 1:15 PM ETby: Tim WorstallTim Worstall Tech, Banks, gold & precious metals, natural resourcesContinental TelegraphSummaryThe comeback in employment after lockdown has slowed down. In a nearly as impressive feat, moving from 4th to 2nd was the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. This gold ETF is also on the upswing. Source: Bloomberg Interestingly, gold spiked (is Biden and the left’s MMT a bigger fear?)… Level 2 nickel is 30% cheaper than level 1.
Rounding out the top 5 was the VanEck Vectors Steel Index Fund.


At HFI Research Natural Gas, we give you guidance on natural gas fundamentals, weather, and set-ups to help you navigate the dangerous natural gas market. Weir wanted out of the oil & gas market and this deal gives them a clean exit and the freedom to restructure as a pure-play on mining and aggregates. The two companies announced that, subject to typical approvals (including Weir shareholder approval), Caterpillar will acquire Weir’s Oil & Gas business for $405 million in cash.
Oil dropped back below $40/bbl, natural gas futures rolled to the next month and sit above $2.50/mmbtu as the weather turns chillier. For readers investing or trading natural gas or natural gas equities, don’t be blinded by the incoming moves. As about 80% of the Weir Oil & Gas business was in North America, I believe that will aid Caterpillar’s integration and synergy attempts. Low oil prices hurt energy revenue, while weak economic activity likely stymied industrial revenue.
Coal was negatively impacted by lower natural gas prices and overall softness in the market. Higher beta, upstream-oriented names (Plains GP Holdings (NYSE:PAGP), Rattler Midstream (NASDAQ:RTLR), ONEOK (NYSE:OKE), Targa Resources (NYSE:TRGP), EnLink Midstream (NYSE:ENLC)) were sharply positive despite oil prices being sharply negative. All that’s left is for us to see the physical improvements in Brent time spreads, and we think oil prices will be much higher from here. Falling fuel costs appear to be knock-on effect of waning demand for oil and a dismal economic outlook.
Wow, November natural gas futures jumped as much as ~11% at one point in the day before falling back to $2.64/MMBtu. Here’s the chronological order of an oil price recovery, write it down, tattoo it on your arm, or whatever you need to remember this. Energy led the way higher, trading in sympathy with the rise in oil. Crude oil stopped rising, reflecting slower growth ahead. We bought UCO when the crude oil price fell to $20.00/bbl levels.
Crude oil price topped at $43.75/bbl and started its downtrend. Now as some oil traders will tell you, this is by no means of “real” refining margins. When we found out that crude oil had difficulty to move to above $44.00/bbl, we sold it. BP is the worst performer among the major oil producers.

United States

Leading cloud software company for the non-profit sector Blackbaud (Nasdaq: BLKB) recently announced its second-quarter results that surpassed market expectations even amid the current conditions. This suggests that the market foresees continued relatively strong recovery in employment and that the Fed is adequately providing liquidity. Micron Q4 earnings resultsSource: Micron Q4 earnings release Micron’s revenue grew to $6.06 billion, quashing Wall Street’s expectations of $5.89 billion (+6% y/y) by a massive eighteen-point margin.
For next year, Wall Street consensus is calling for barely any earnings growth at all – consensus has pro forma EPS at $3.76 for FY22, per Yahoo Finance. At first, it seemed like the entire market was going to crash after we found out President Trump tested positive for COVID-19. “The disparity between the Fed’s interventions, the stock market, and the real economy has become abundantly clear. On the downside, Oasis Midstream Partners (NASDAQ:OMP) was the worst performer, with wild swings in price early in the week on the bankruptcy filing by its parent company.
These recognizable brands should provide strength as the beverage markets make a slow recovery, picking on trends seen in PepsiCo’s (NASDAQ:PEP) recently reported earnings.
It appears Trump catching COVID has sparked a relief compression in election anxiety priced into the volatility market… Well, .” Trump having the coronavirus could also disrupt the last two debates. But the news that Trump tested positive for COVID-19 sent all the major indexes down last Friday and put the bull run mode into doubt.
Last quarter, the Trump administration announced the Clean Network Program that is focused on protecting US citizens’ privacy and American companies’ sensitive information from certain organizations. As for another stimulus package, with Trump is lagging in the polls he’ll be pushing harder for a deal before the election. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics seasonally adjusted number, the US economy added 661,000 new jobs last month. Trump tweeted as the NYT was publishing a report claiming that at least two White House housekeepers have tested positive.
Instead, the primary driver of dollars flows will be headlines on Trump’s COVID-19 progression, coronavirus stimulus talks, and comments from Federal Reserve President Powell. Via SchiffGold.com, We got the September jobs report on Friday but it was completely overshadowed by the announcement that President Trump tested positive for COVID-19. The many surveys available from the regional federal reserve banks, like the one of the Richmond Fed, confirm the sharp increase in production and employment.
However, the mitigating circumstance in that election was that the Nasdaq and large-cap tech stocks had begun to unravel prior to the election. If Biden is elected, the market will crash as Biden promised to reverse Trump’s tax cut policy and instead will want to increase it.


With EU gas storages at around 95% full, Europe is again to manage the upcoming winter from a security of supply perspective. Industrial production, factory orders, and trade data are scheduled for release from Germany but comments from ECB President Lagarde could be more important.