Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 08, 2020



These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher and made new highs for the move as the world weather situation became more important. Minneapolis Spring Wheat was higher.


Fundamental messages remain somewhat mixed but if the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund can overcome resistance near 25.90, we believe we could see higher valuations into 2021. Source: Bloomberg The dollar also fell very modestly… Gold and silver were higher, while the dollar was essentially unchanged. But what is most striking about this dollar-based fund is that recent inflows have indicated a surge in bullish activity that could the potential to send valuations much higher.
Peter also talked about gold and the dollar, saying he thinks gold is building a base of support around the old all-time record high. Source: ETFdb The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund has roughly $740.43 million in assets under management (AUM) and currently trades with an expense ratio of 0.79%. Moreover, the New Taiwan dollar has been strengthening against the USD on the back of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan, and TSM is a significant part of that.
Takeda is paying a fair price for a potential multibillion-dollar blockbuster, while Arrowhead gets a strong commercial partner and more cash to advance its other pipeline candidates.


The operation will produce an average of 153koz of gold per year over the LOM at AISC of around $650 per ounce. Conclusion Rupert has been delivering great drill results from Pahtavaara and I view the latter as one of the best gold projects in Europe. Roxgold’s Seguela project looks more compelling as the latter’s NPV stands at $431 million at $1,850 per ounce of gold. ), ρn and Vn are the mass concentration and market value of the nth component in the list, respectively, and V Au is the market value of gold.
Yaramoko is a relatively small gold mine with low AISC, which has a limited mine life. Source: Bloomberg And oil prices jumped on Saudi/OPEC optimistic jawboning (WTI topped $41)… Gold futures rallied back up near $1900 once again… We got up to $1,900 back in 2011 and then gold sold off and pulled back down near a thousand. )m and I think it cements Pahtavaara position as the best development-stage gold project in Europe. I like the exploration potential here as more than 1,4Moz of gold can be converted from resources to reserves.
There is some silver lining here, but it does little to counter the impact of the weak revenue growth guidance.


As I’ve said before, I’m bearish on just about the entire energy space due to supply/demand issues in the oil markets, volatile pricing, geopolitical concerns, and cash flow shortages. Since activity in the US energy industry is strongly linked to the price of Oil (CL1:COM), it is not surprising that DNOW has fallen on relatively hard times recently. Management got out of non-Nordic shipping, oil, and offshore lending, and overall energy lending is less than 1% of the book.
However, given winter weather volatility, LNG feedgas demand and gas-to-coal switching will play more important roles in balancing the winter market in the immediate horizon. Results for the latest second quarter (were the price of oil, for a brief period went negative!) Since nobody knows what will happen with the Oil price, I would like to point out DNOW fantastic liquidity position. Oil advisers in Saudi Arabia now say Riyadh is considering postponing the move until the end of the first quarter.
Even with the depressed Oil price, FCF is expected to top $100 million. Saudi Arabian crude exports sustained above the 6 million bpd mark for the second consecutive month.
Because I use these crude baselines for approval based on Alacrita consulting data, the difference isn’t huge. This spring, oil prices crashed and the rattling ceased. That gives it tremendous power to influence OPEC decisions on production. I’d also note that Danske’s commercial loan book is well-diversified and has very little exposure to oil/gas.

United States

The interest rate most people refer to when they say interest rates are “manipulated” is the Fed Funds Market. Trump refusing to debate next week virtually, last night may have been the last. In other words, when you see a positive interest rate from the Fed they’ve actually manipulated that rate UP, not down as people commonly think. The nearly grown-up behavior of the two vice-presidential candidates last night was something of a relief after the Trump performance last week.
So, the bottom line is that the Fed Funds Market isn’t really a free market at all. This piece of news was welcomed by investors after Trump put off the coronavirus stimulus package talks to post elections. Source: MacroTrends.Net Fiscal policy under the Trump administration has been characterized by low corporate tax rates and lenient tax treatment on the nation’s highest earners. Trump reportedly required personnel at the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center to sign non-disclosure agreements before they could treat him last year.
We believe this expected stress on commercial real estate is why CMBS is lagging the broader market recovery that started with the intervention by the Fed. Reiterating comments from earlier, Trump said the US will make the medications he received during his course of treatment available “immediately” to Americans – especially for America’s “vulnerable” seniors. “I want you to get the same care that I got…and you’re going to get it free – no charge,” Trump said.
The last few days it has been surging and Sheep of Wall Street (Twitter nickname) posted what were supposed to be photos of FDA plant inspectors on Twitter. Just today Trump s administration hit Iran with more sanctions over European protests. The interview was recorded before President Trump tweeted the rug out from under the hope of a stimulus deal and cut off negotiations with the Democrats. DNOW is a Texas based provider of industrial tooling to the energy industry, servicing primarily customers in the US, but the company also has some operations in other countries.
Suffice it to say, investors are left with essentially the same questions they had entering the week and the price of the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 reflects that. He also said there will be negative impact from carbon-cutting on business and employment and pooh-poohed reports on racism by his boss, by saying Trump has Jewish grandchildren. It’s an imposed market that is set and controlled, either directly, or indirectly, by the Fed.
The main performance driver was the extreme return posted by TAT Technologies (NASDAQ:TATT) due to the company winning a long-term service and repair contract with Honeywell International.
This picture becomes even more bleak when examining the Nasdaq, which is far more concentrated with these same top 5 components representing 47.08% of the composite.