Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 09, 2020



These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. A 2015 study commissioned by the Alberta Irrigation Projects Association showed average annual net returns for spring wheat increased fivefold because of irrigation. General Comments: Winter and Spring Wheat markets were lower after making new highs for the move as speculative profit-taking hit the pit before the USDA reports tomorrow.


DBB has been undermined by a firmer dollar environment since September, as investors have been inclined to unwind some reflation trades like long commodities. The offshore yuan now trades at the strongest level since April of last year, just shy of 2019 highs near 6.67 per dollar. Although DBB has come under pressure since September, we attribute its weakness to the renewed strength in the dollar, which we view as a transient phenomenon. So while trends in the euro have been on the rise in currency markets, there are several reasons to believe that this market move might soon reverse.
As a result, rising market valuations in the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust look unsustainable, and continued rallies should be considered a “sell” as we head into 2021. On top of that, the yuan is set to benefit from Chinese export growth and the dollar’s continued decline, he said. Source: Bloomberg, Orchid Research We think that the appreciation in the dollar is a transient phenomenon.
Tom Fitzpatrick, chief technical FX strategist at Citigroup, sees the 6.6693-6.6752 area as the next resistance level for the dollar. From the short-term trading perspective, this might make things look as though investor sentiment is strongly bullish in its calls for higher valuations in euro-denominated assets. But interesting, the Dollar was sharply lower. As a result, if investors want to start a new position in P&G, I suggest dollar-cost-averaging into the name over, say, a 6-month time frame.


The West African nation has sizable untapped deposits of metals including iron ore, gold, zinc and lead, but almost all extraction is done on a small-scale or manual basis. A deflationary wave would hurt the value of large-cap stocks, and gold to a lesser extent, with Treasury bonds benefiting. Source: Bloomberg, Orchid Research Copper has performed the best over the past year, while aluminium and zinc have lagged behind the red metal. Source: Bloomberg, Orchid Research Open interest in LME copper, LME zinc, and LME aluminium declined in September, while LME prices declined over the same period.
In contrast, global aluminium inventories have continued their steady decline since July, a sign of a lanced market. Finally, copper inventories have increased since late September after substantial deliveries into LME warehouses until the end of September. According to The Blaze, Silver alluded to the messaging being removed despite the league being “completely committed to standing for social justice and racial equality.”


We also write daily and weekly reports, covering key variables in U.S. natural gas market (supply, demand, storage, prices and more). Crude Value Insights offers you an investing service and community focused on oil and natural gas. With September US oil production now set at ~11 mb/d average, the implied decline rate between August and September excluding shut-ins is around ~500k b/d. EIA’s weekly oil storage report this week came in pretty much smack in line with our estimate once you take into account SPR.
Those facilities pump about 130,000 barrels of crude oil and 43 million cubic meters of gas a day. The resolution also averts the shutdown next week of Norway’s largest oil field, the 460,000 barrel-a-day Johan Sverdrup facility. It also averts the shutdown next week of Norway’s largest oil field, the 460,000 barrel-a-day Johan Sverdrup facility. Implied US oil production came in around ~11.17 mb/d, making the last two-week average ~10.783 mb/d.
Now you can see the implied US oil production on a weekly, two-week average, and four-week average basis. A prolonged walkout could have affected crude exports and helped boost global prices at a time when the market is struggling with slowing demand because of the coronavirus pandemic. Caterpillar Inc. agreed to buy Weir Group Plc s oil and gas division for $405 million. A prolonged walkout could have affected crude exports and had helped support prices at a time when the market is struggling with slowing demand because of the coronavirus pandemic.
The “cold season” is the time of high volatility in natural gas markets.
Oil extended losses following the agreement, with global benchmark Brent falling as much as 1.4% to $42.74 a barrel. Florida-based CBD company Green Roads, for example, has a product called “Sweet Sleep Hemp Oil” that also contains melatonin, a popular sleep enhancer. For now, we have US oil production falling to ~10.4 mb/d by year-end. Natural gas is primarily a winter commodity. LEARN MORE 1:44 Share Tweet Post Email Share Tweet Post Email The Johan Sverdrup oil field off the coast of Norway in the North Sea.
This would represent a ~3 mb/d drop since March of this year or ~75% of estimated OPEC total spare capacity (assuming Iran returns 100%) as of Dec 2019.

United States

Inflation numbers are also scheduled for release, but the Fed has made it clear that inflation is too low and the latest data should reflect that. The Trump campaign has not yet released its September fundraising numbers.Biden’s fundraising success reversed a massive financial advantage that Trump and the Republicans had just months ago. I believe the Street continues to undervalue the company’s sub-PMIC content opportunities with (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhones, as well as opportunities in areas like battery management and charging.
More importantly President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden are prepared to pump the economy with major stimulus in the new year. Biden started September with a $466 million mountain of cash to take on Trump, completely reversing the Republican’s financial advantage in just four months. “People cast their ballots when they make up their minds, and we know that many people made up their minds long ago and already have a judgment about Trump.”
President Trump was pictured coughing, a bad sign, while he was threatening to hit the campaign trail in person tomorrow, allegedly with medical permission. “The Trump campaign is urging us to hold as many and as big signs as possible. Currently, the major polls give former Vice President Biden more than a 9-point lead nationally against President Trump – according to RealClearPolitics National Average. the Fed’s calls for another couple of trillion to keep the balls in the air on top of the several trillions already dumped onto Mr. Market.
Trump then said he actually wanted even more stimulus money than Democrats were proposing, which … what? Further Politics Reading:The Trump campaign has no plans for the future, just appeals to a lost past. Her combined war chest of $152.6 million was almost twice as much as Trump’s total. Mnuchin and Pelosi are making hopeful sounds and the stock market – addicted as it is to ever-easier money – is now happily anticipating an extended high.
The US economy has made substantial progress over the last several months from the depths of the recession in April and May.
On Wednesday of this week President Trump tweeted a promise to bring American troops home from Afghanistan, the country’s longest running war now at 19-years, by Christmas. The finding is the latest published by the New York Times based on more than two decades of Trump’s tax data. The Times reported Sept. 27 that Trump has aggressively used tax deductions to offset income and paid only $750 in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017. Since Trump’s flip-flop on negotiating a COVID relief deal, (but despite its gains, the Russell 2000 remains red for the year)…
I’d love for President Trump to come to one of my rallies,” he said.


U.S. fiscal stimulus talks and Brexit negotiations are still in start-stop mode and until an agreement is reached, headlines are the greatest risk. Aside from Brexit talks, UK labor market numbers are also due next week. Across the Atlantic, for example, Boris Johnson faces rising case counts and a menu of unappealing options, writes Therese Raphael.