Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 15, 2020

Agriculture

This may spread globally and that would create a golden opportunity for corn and ethanol export market. On the Corn Front nice gains more corn and soybean purchases from China. In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 396 ½ which is unchanged. Ideas are that most of the Cotton crops in the region have open bolls now and that some significant damage might have been done due to wind and rain. less General Comments: Cotton closed mixed to a little lower.

Currencies

Also of consideration – the US Dollar is going through its own themes at the moment as we get closer and closer to the election. In the past two months, three multi-billion dollar conglomerates publicly announced significantly sized investments in Bitcoin. The British Pound looked downright strong after testing a big spot of support in late-September, and this led to a two-week-rally that held through this week’s open. For traders looking to take-on exposure in the British Pound, there may simply be more amenable pastures elsewhere, which I’ll look at below.
They issued 500 euro gasoline cards to reimburse drivers for the loss of fuel economy. Gold and silver and the Dollar all rallied today. It has seen same-theatre attendance decline 85% this year and is in a billion-dollar working capital deficit. Source: Bloomberg And that helped lift the dollar…

Metals

Credit: Seeking Alpha) The stock continues to trade at a lower valuation compared to mid-tier mining peers such as IAMGOLD (IAG), Yamana Gold (AUY) and Alamos Gold (AGI). Eldorado Gold is Undervalued with Production Upside (9/7/20) After several recent positive developments, I think shares have only become more attractive to investors. The mining sector as a whole is undervalued compared to the price of gold (GLD), but Eldorado is particularly cheap compared to peers.
Skouries is a gold-copper deposit that contains 3.8 million ounces of gold and 1.7 billion pounds of copper in reserves. Last quarter, Eldorado reported some pretty strong results, with 137,782ozAu of gold production at $859/oz all-in sustaining costs. (Eldorado Gold’s production is up significantly compared to last year. However, we also know that its average realized gold price will be north of $1,900/oz, well above Q2’s figure of $1,726/oz. Eldorado Gold reported preliminary Q3 2020 production of 136,672ozAu, a 35% rise over Q3 2019.
Eldorado is the owner of four producing gold mines, located in Canada, Turkey, and Greece, and several development projects in Romania and Brazil. I believe Eldorado Gold is a buy on any pullbacks ahead of its Q3 2020 earnings report. (Earnings estimates from 6 analysts covering Eldorado Gold.

Oil

But strangely enough, oil producers began complaining about oil prices being too low to cover to cover their rising cost levels, starting in 2012. The US and Canada added oil production from shale and bitumen in recent years, helping to keep world oil production (including natural gas liquids) rising. OPEC producers are known for their low cost of production, but even they report needing high oil prices. This happens because the oil that is cheapest to extract and process tends to be extracted first, leaving the oil with higher cost of extraction until later.
Oil prices now are in the $40 range, so are way, way below both $120 per barrel and $150 per barrel. At low prices, the extraction of oil, coal, and natural gas becomes unprofitable. The longer low oil prices last, the greater the danger is of governments being overthrown by unhappy citizens. These sources of funding are drying up, as many oil companies report poor earnings, year after year, and some are seeking bankruptcy protection.
These low drilling rig counts suggest that US and Canadian oil production from shale will fall in 2021. Interest rates and the availability of debt also play a role in oil prices. Oil was, as that time, inexpensive to produce and could be sold for a very large multiple of the cost of production. When seeking a solution to the current near record low interest rates, Höegh LNG Partners (NYSE:HMLP) stand out with their very high distribution yield of almost 16%.
The way the energy problems of the period between 1913 and 1945 were resolved was through the rapid ramp-up of oil production.
Oil prices seem to bounce around wildly. Concho’s proved reserves at the end of 2019 were 1.0 billion boe (62% oil and 38% natural gas). OPEC producers also need to develop new oil fields because the old ones deplete. Oil production can then be expected to become erratic because of internal conflicts. Oil production outside of the United States and Canada entered a bumpy plateau in 2005. In the US and Canada, oil companies have been funded by bank loans, bond sales, and the sale of shares of stock.
Shares in major oil companies Royal Dutch Shell PLC, BP PLC and Eni SpA posted some of the biggest losses.

United States

With strong capital reserve levels at major banks, the Fed will likely allow the banks to resume their shareholder return programs at one point in the foreseeable future. Janet Tavakoli, Decisions: Life and Death on Wall Street Stocks were off to a rocky start today but managed to gain back much of their losses into the close. The US election campaign presentations tonight will require that people use two televisions because the networks are not offering split screens to cover both Biden and Trump.
$123.18 per share x (105.2 million total shares) equaled a $13 billion market capitalization, as of yesterday’s 4 p.m. close on the Nasdaq. Once the US cash markets opened, we were off to the races with Small Caps and Trannies ramped back into the green (and Dow & S&P tried their best). Some of these therapeutics, including Gilead’s (GILD – Free Report) antiviral drug remdesivir and Regeneron’s (REGN – Free Report) experimental antibody treatment were given to President Trump.
Unfortunately people in high places are taking it seriously.Those include President Donald Trump and the people around him at the White House. Perhaps… but should Trump defy the pollster odds and defeat Biden on Nov 3, the shock would be even greater. In fact, according to Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, a Trump victory would be “the biggest polling shock in history.” Given Ball holds the largest market share in the US, Europe, and South America, it looks very well-positioned to capture the overall growth opportunity.
Joe Biden still has a 10-point national polling edge on Trump and significant leads in the big swing states (including Georgia???). Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields ended the day modestly higher, with bonds sold from the US open as stocks rallied… US unemployment sign-ups hit 898,000 last week, well over the consensus estimate of 830,00. Source: Investor Presentation This year alone, the US is short ~10bn cans – for perspective, this is equivalent to ~9% of the entire 2019 market.
The information below was created by combining the “U.S. Dividend Champions” spreadsheet hosted here with upcoming dividend information from Nasdaq.
Sure, Trump and Republicans keep saying they ll protect those people. As always there is news despite the world’s focus on the Supremes and the US candidates. For now, Ball is focused on the circularity of the aluminum can and recycling rates, particularly in the US, which currently stand at ~50%. First, MicroStrategy, a publicly-listed U.S. company on the Nasdaq, said it invested $425 million in Bitcoin. AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN), Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), and other pharmaceutical companies have already identified promising vaccines, which block the coronavirus.

Europe

Earlier this week, BoJo’s decision to stick with talks instead of walking away prompted analysts to suggest that the odds of a deal are high. French President Emmanuel Macron’s insistence that French fishermen retain access to British fishing waters is now the biggest roadblock to a deal, much to his allies’ chagrin. EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier has confirmed that the trade negotiations will continue, despite the Oct. 15 deadline. Source: Bloomberg Cable was weak once again as UK-EU talks broke down…

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