Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture October 21, 2020



These areas are trying to plant the next Winter Wheat crop but the dry weather and the dry soils are keeping farmers out of the fields. less General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher again yesterday.


The digital dollar can cure some of these issues because the government, if its smart, will retain the right to manufacture digital dollars, thus bypassing the banks. It could also be negative for the dollar exchange rate, but ultimately all governments will go this way so the FX rate implications are unclear at this juncture. A weaker dollar would also benefit EM countries by reducing the cost of debt service on existing US dollar-denominated EM debt.
We believe that the dollar could weaken due to the current account deficit, a (growing) budget deficit and low rates. Source: Bloomberg And as the dollar dropped, Bitcoin popped, topping $12,900 – the highest since July 2019 (helped by reports that PayPal will integrate crypto)… Note that 2025 is a number of years away, and you will want to structure these purchases before the digital dollar is in place. Intel has an impressive portfolio of assets with a several hundred billion dollar market capitalization.
If we look at the sales on a constant dollar basis, net sales for the quarter were a touch lower. This makes the digital dollar an easy sell for the government. Generally, when the dollar is weak, capital flows into EM assets in search of higher growth and yields. Collectors Universe puts shareholders first and has the potential to grow into a multi-billion dollar company in the future. Source: Bloomberg The dollar weakness has helped send (against a broad basket of currencies)…
The dollar dumped to its lowest since Sept 1st… The US dollar is overvalued. However, this was really due again to the re-measurement of the company’s euro debt, which meant a non-cash loss of $249 million. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. The only reason why the euro is strong because of its attracting demand from investors selling dollars.


Fabrication revenue fell 2% yoy and improved 12% qoq, with Steel Dynamics seeing resilient construction demand and improve steel service center demand (restocking). Gold prices took out a number of key resistance levels along the way, but this was a pretty clear example of a trending state in a cyclical market. Gold and silver prices surged during 2020 as investors flocked towards precious metals as a haven against economic uncertainty. It might be hard to believe if we go back to early-August when Gold prices were showing hints of a mania on their way up to fresh all-time-highs.
I believe Steel Dynamics shares are only a little below fair value today, so I’m not overly excited about the return potential here relative to the risk. Steel Dynamics isn’t as leveraged to infrastructure as companies like Nucor or (CMC), but infrastructure stimulus certainly wouldn’t be a negative development for STLD. less Gold prices have been in digestion mode for two-and-a-half months now.
Not surprisingly, flat production and shipments outpaced long steel, with capacity utilization at 99%. The gold mining stocks later that year provided traditional value investors with a classic Graham net-net trade. Steel operating profit declined 17% qoq to $50/ton, while fabrication profits improved 44%. Just as counterfeits produce tons of fake reprint cards, I think gold and silver coins will be counterfeited too. I’ve said it endlessly, but I’ll say it again: I believe, , gold has a fantastic future.


Pembina has an integrated system of pipelines that transport crude oil, natural gas liquids [NGL] and natural gas produced primarily in Western Canada. Its volume of crude oil and condensates comprises 40% of its total volume, while its NGL and natural gas volumes comprise 30% of the total volume each. Lastly, US energy policy is particularly critical for EM economies, whether oil producing or oil consuming. Improved relations between the US and Iran could allow for Iranian oil sales, lowering energy prices.
According to the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production figures, output in the mining sector dedicated to oil extraction was down about 16% in September when compared to February.
The best place to start is, as usual, with crude oil. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (CVX), EOG (NYSE:EOG), PXD, Hess (NYSE:HES), BP (NYSE:BP), Total (NYSE:TOT) and a few other oil majors. I do expect non-residential demand to weaken and oil/gas demand to stay weak. The WTI curve, for all the talk of recovery and inflation these past few months, continues to be in contango. Plastics/polymers demand was pretty healthy, while oil/gas was unsurprisingly not.

United States

The latest Fed report also found that manufacturing activity generally increased at a moderate pace – as confirmed by the latest PMI and ISM data. In a report published this morning, Kolanovic presents a Twitter sentiment analysis on the US election and compares it with the traditional polling data. Looking at Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) share price and enthusiasm about its future growth, it’s clear that investors don’t believe that anything can go wrong with this electric carmaker.
From rising tensions between the US and China to infrastructure and energy policies, the outcome of this US election may matter more than usual for risk assets. Those chances are becoming less likely as Donald Trump surges in the polls; it’s looking more like a repeat of the 2016 election. The Fed’s Beige Book report didn’t help – according to the Fed districts, It is almost hard to believe that EUR/USD hit one month high on Wednesday. It’s no surprise to anyone who follows the US shale production closely that the growth came largely from external capital and not from free cash flow.
However, over the long term, the party affiliation of the US president has had almost no impact on stock returns. If Trump received just 16% of the Black vote this November, let alone an even higher number, that would all but secure states like Michigan for Trump. The table below summarizes the above data, underscoring the dramatic shift in pro-Trump sentiment vs polls in 3 of the battleground states.
Trump won’t give up easily and in key battleground states, voters are very motivated to vote. Here are ten of those tea leaves: American presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College as President Trump and Joe Biden both know. In the Trump era, there has been a lot of talk about whether Trump supporters feel free to tell pollsters that they are supporting the president’s reelection. That would be a 15% swing toward Trump if it held up on Election Day.
After the first debate between Biden and Trump, a Telemundo poll showed Trump winning the debate overwhelmingly 66% to 34%. Trump could well receive a historic level of support from Latino Voters in 2020. But there was a problem: while these four ingredients produced massive investment returns, they also contributed to a widening income gap in the US. This should allow us to absorb the benefits of long-term structural changes to the global economy and navigate through the short-term volatility in the US economy and geopolitical tensions.
Rudy Giuliani, President Donald Trump’s personal attorney, provided a copy of the alleged Hunter Biden hard drive to the Post earlier this month.
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) has significantly outperformed Intel from a market share change position.


There’s been some comments suggesting that the ECB is not ready to ease but if the economy freezes up from a second wave, they’ll have no choice.