Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture September 04, 2020



Dollar cost averaging is a surefire way to build a larger position while avoiding the emotional stress of trying to time the market. Instead of getting caught in the cycle of buying hype and panic selling, I use dollar cost averaging when investing in A+ companies like Apple. The dollar amount per incident ranges between $2,000 and $3,500 per store, depending on store type. Operating earnings came in at $900 million in 2019, which made that I pegged earnings power at just half a dollar.
It stems from the idea that increasing the money supply is inflationary as it decreases the value of the dollar. Source: Bloomberg The Dollar managed to rise on the week… for the first time in 10 weeks! In addition, GBP-denominated investors should also consider hedging their currency exposure as we expect the British pound to remain sensitive to a sudden drawdown in equities.


In terms of cash flow, I calculated that Argonaut Gold generated $32.628 million dollars of free cash flow for the second quarter. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. In terms of its balance sheet, I calculated Argonaut Gold to have a current ratio of 2.3, and a total assets to total liabilities ratio of 7.03. Gold stocks have run really far really fast thanks to that huge post-panic upleg!
When the stars align right for them, meaning a big and persistent gold upleg, their stock prices skyrocket! In terms of the company’s assets, Argonaut Gold has three producing assets. If they can get up to 60,000 tonnes of nickel and 5,600 tonnes of cobalt per year, that should be $484 million in pre-tax pre-royalty profits. The gold miners’ stocks are mired in correction mode, which isn’t surprising after their mighty post-stock-panic upleg.
This means that future cash flows from 2021 onward are going to be very important regarding future performance, and survival of Argonaut Gold. As gold temporarily got sucked into that stock panic, GDX was pummeled to a deep low of just $19.00. Those radically-oversold conditions gave the gold stocks massive room to mean revert far higher. It includes the world’s biggest and best gold miners, dwarfing its peers in size. Gold stocks have a well-deserved reputation for excessive volatility, which is a key reason they are so alluring.
There’s no doubt gold stocks are really stretched technically. His words on the Q2 2020 earnings call: Well, I’d just like to reemphasize, any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel. There’s no doubt that Apple is the gold standard when it comes to smartphones, laptops, and other electronics. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally-sensitive way.
The most-popular gold-stock benchmark today is the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF. The company’s invested capital base consist of roughly equal parts PP&E and NWC, which is to expect from a steel industry operator, which historically has not done much M&A. Well, it just so happens that Sumitomo has a ~46% stake in one of the largest nickel mines in the world.


ONEOK Asset Base – ONEOK Investor Presentation ONEOK’s primary asset base, as we discussed above, is 40 thousand miles of natural gas liquids and natural gas pipelines. I continue to believe that the elevated level of inventories in storage across the US is a bearish fundamental factor for the price of natural gas futures. However, the ETF products allow market participants to participate in the volatile natural gas market without venturing into the futures arena.
We also write daily and weekly reports, covering key variables in U.S. natural gas market (supply, demand, storage, prices and more).
Natural gas rose to a new high for this year, but the price failed to reach its critical technical resistance level at the November 2019 high of $2.905. The company’s asset portfolio connects to every major oil and natural gas play in the center of the country, along with major demand and export centers. The company has major natural gas liquids pipeline systems where it operates as a “toll operator” earning enough cash flow to pay out its near 14% yield. I expect the price of natural gas to drop to a higher low over the coming weeks.
Last week, the Energy Information Administration reported a small injection into natural gas stockpiles across the United States. Natural gas stocks rose above the four tcf level only twice since the EIA began reporting data. The most direct route for a risk position in natural gas is via the futures and futures options. I expect lots of volatility in the natural gas market. Moreover, the upcoming November election, which coincides with the start of the 2020/2021 withdrawal season in natural gas, will determine the future of US energy policy.
I prefer trading natural gas futures to the ETN products for two reasons. Natural gas rose to a new high for 2020 at $2.743 on August 28. At the same time, natural gas is essential to standard of living especially from an electricity standpoint. The delivery point for NYMEX natural gas futures is the Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana, which is not far from Vermilion Bay and the Gulf of Mexico.
For now, the oil market’s near-term outlook remains weak until China can get rid of all the excess in floating storage. OneStim helps customers extract oil and gas from shale wells by blasting water, sand and chemicals underground to release trapped hydrocarbons. The longer China takes to digest all of this crude, the more demand for forward barrels will remain weak, which will in turn keep oil prices capped.

United States

First, the ETNs only trade during stock market hours in the US, while the futures market trades around the clock from Sunday evening through late Friday each week. At the recent Jackson Hole Economic Summit, Jerome Powell unveiled the Fed’s new monetary policy designed to create inflation. Several factors probably explain this result, but many experts believe the Fed’s recent adoption of average inflation targeting has helped to boost inflation expectations.
The current assumption is that the Fed’s new policy will lead to higher inflation. Separately, citing research from BofA, we noted that for the Fed to catch up to its AIT target, rates would need to stay ultra low for some 42 years. With interest rates dropping and the Fed buying up assets across the corporate space, finding a product with a 5% yield is no easy feat. The high yield corporate bond sector has been rising due to Fed support and has a general disconnect (in my view) with economic reality.
“The Fed is printing money like crazy which is going to lead to inflation.” For the last 12-years, this belief has remained a constant in the market.
Since the early 1980s, for instance, the Fed has generally nudged interest rates lower and lower. The portfolio is based on a filter I have created, which screens all the stocks trading on the US markets (source data provided by Morningstar). In addition, as for the US, we saw a spectacular more on real money growth M1, which has historically been a good leading indicator for risky assets. By stretching the money supply, the Fed also promotes malinvestment into business activities that would have otherwise been unprofitable.
(It’s hard to quantify the effect, as the announcement was somewhat anticipated, and the post-announcement commentary by Fed officials also has an effect on market perceptions.) Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve dropped its fed funds rate to near zero, opening up the possibility that the rate will fall further into negative territory. In fact, JNK saw a large amount of Fed buying through the early stages of the recovery, and its purchases have grown considerably since then.
If the 2.2 million projection was accurate, then the US lockdown saved in the neighborhood of 2 million lives. Intrusion (OTCQB:INTZ) has filed to raise $10 million in a Nasdaq IPO of its common stock, according to an S-1 registration statement. The Nasdaq Composite lost nearly 5% on Thursday, but several of its most high-profile stocks are still overvalued, according to Wall Street analysts. Buying stocks based on huge run-ups is never a good, long-term investing strategy.
In today’s Macroview, we will discuss the 5-reasons why the Fed will not get inflation, and why deflation is the bigger risk.


In the past few years, the rise in political uncertainty due to Brexit has been dramatically weighing in UK’s growth expectations, which has been gradually decreasing since 2016.