Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture September 09, 2020



About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry and wire reports indicate that production in the worst areas could be 50% of normal. Source: CQG Open interest rose with the price of cotton as it moved from 191,194 contracts on August 12 to 217,214 contracts on September 8, 13.6% higher. General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in response to the stronger US Dollar and strong production estimates from ABRES in Australia. less General Comments: Cotton closed lower as the US Dollar rallied.
The Trump administration is also considering another ban on China’s cotton. The market is still reacting to which way Wheat prices are going here and overseas. Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions in both the US and Canada.


The firm’s dollar-based net retention rate has fluctuated between 120% and 130%, extremely strong figures that are important for SaaS firm performance measurement. We price on a per-seat basis and when our customers downsize, freeze hiring or hire more slowly, net dollar retention is negatively impacted. We expect our dollar-based net retention rate to remain under pressure, until we lap the headwinds we’ve experienced this year. As such, we expect our dollar-based net retention rate to trend down to the mid-120s in Q3.”
It’s been a rough summer for US Dollar bulls as the currency has spent much of the past few months in varying forms of sell-off. Euro rebounded on Wednesday on reports that the central bank could show more confidence in their economic outlook which would be a reference to GDP and not inflation. This decline could force the central bank to lower their inflation forecasts and suggests that their 1.35 trillion euro PEPP is a target, not a ceiling.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower as the US Dollar turned higher. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Source: Bloomberg The dollar was monkey-hammered lower (EUR gains)… A stronger US Dollar will not help demand at all. less Based on the persistent weakness of the euro, investors are bracing for ECB dovishness.


Weir’s mining business is leveraged toward healthier commodities (copper, gold, iron) and miners’ desire to automate more material handling functions, and it generates substantial annual aftermarket revenue. However, Solaris currently has a market cap of $185 million despite being at a much earlier stage and having more significant issues than the iron ore business of Jupiter. It also helps that Weir is much more heavily-leveraged to minerals where ongoing activity has remained stronger (copper, gold, and iron, relative to coal).
The latter is a company in which Equinox Gold (OTC:EQX) put its mothballed copper assets before listing them on the TSX. Mount Mason, in turn, reminds me of an advanced version of Solaris’ Ricardo copper property in Chile.


The Oil & Gas segment is suffering as demand for fracking equipment has cratered and may stay below prior peak levels for an extended time. With oil futures prices rebounding, the financial incentive to store oil at sea has dissipated, and so tankers that were taken of trade have returned to market. In contrast to the mining business, Weir’s Oil & Gas business is putting up some awful numbers. Global oil demand could be 9 to 10 million barrels per day this year due to the pandemic, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak was quoted.
The resulting oil price collapsed created a demand for tankers as temporary floating storage facilities, and tanker rates spiked. Higher oil and gas prices could fix that, of course (or at least accelerate the recovery), but you can’t count on that sort of windfall. This means that their EOR business (Enhanced Oil Recovery) can now operate at much lower costs and higher margins. Transportation fuels, which account for the bulk of global oil demand, continue to be depressed due to travel restrictions and fears by would-be travelers of contracting the disease.
However, a special case developed in the spring when oil demand plummeted as economies worldwide were shut down to control the spread of COVID-19.
I expect to see further downside as the drop in oil demand extends into the months ahead. Management wants to exit the Oil/Gas business and focus on the mining operations, but getting good value for the assets is going to be very challenging for a while. Saudi Aramco oil shipments to the USA have averaged 310,000 b/d in the 4 weeks ending August 28th, down 31% from a year ago.
Middle distillate inventories at Asia’s Singapore oil hub have surpassed a nine-year high, according to official data. A long/short Model portfolio is continuously updated, along with on-going analysis of the oil market. It has now turned into , which he seems in repeat statements to have positively backed, given his touting “we’ve secured the oil”. Tanker rates have crashed and the share prices of tanker owners such as Nordic American Tankers (NYSE:NAT) have recently dropped.
Backing from Wall Street, Big Agriculture and Big Oil helps point to a more consistent response. I do still see fairly attractive long-term upside here, but in the near-term outperforming the likes of Epiroc and could be difficult so long as oil/gas remains so weak. On August 31, 2020, Chesapeake Energy asked the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Houston to let go of a nearly natural gas contract with pipeline giant Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET). That was an unexpected boon for tanker owners, who, at the beginning of the year were focused on impacts of the IMO-2020 regulations.

United States

The day after Peter called the market the biggest bubble ever, the Nasdaq broke 12,000 for the first time ever and the Dow Jones pushed back above 29,000. Notably, the Nasdaq Composite Index entered into a correction territory in just three days, representing its quickest plunge ever from a record close. The NASDAQ completed a 10% correction just 3 trading days after setting a new all-time high (September 2). Slack revenue in Q2 was $215.9 million, growing 49% y/y and squarely beating Wall Street’s expectations of $209.2 million (+44% y/y) by a solid five-point margin.
CNN somehow overlooks Fauci, Pelosi and Biden downplaying the virus themselves – with the latter two calling Trump a xenophobe for his China travel restrictions. Off the March coronavirus lows, however, the Nasdaq rallied over 75% to another set of new all-time highs, until the recent 9% pullback. Trump also told Woodward that the virus was (while the World Health Organization explicitly said it was not, and maintained in January there was no human-to-human transmission).
Shares of Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) are falling sharply after reporting earnings and guidance that fell slightly below Wall Street’s lofty expectations. Instead of talking about the impeachment, however, Woodward was ‘surprised’ that Trump was focused on COVID-19, the deadly virus gripping Wuhan, China “,” Trump told Woodward, adding that . Last Thursday, the Nasdaq fell by the most ever percentage-wise off an all-time high.
Stock futures in the Nasdaq were still looking bearish Tuesday morning following the Labor Day holiday.
Both revenue and earnings sharply exceeded Wall Street’s expectations for the quarter. I began to look at NASDAQ’s list of TSLA institutional investors to determine if there were any other obvious major subtractions from public float that should be made. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Fed is coming out with more QE when the market is getting killed. During a Labor Day news conference President Trump raised eyebrows in charging top Pentagon commanders of . As can be seen above, these rates are much higher than the minimum required by the Fed and are on par with Capital One.
Woodward views this as a damning missed opportunity for Trump to reset “the leadership clock” after he was told this was a “once-in-a-lifetime health emergency.” Previously the Trump administration said it would aim for a major troop reduction in Iraq . He has been quoted in a variety of financial news publications, such as CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post. Today, Wall Street continues to use Zacks research including the Zacks Rank and Zacks Equity Research, which combines the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis.


These scenarios are possible and some market watchers would assign it greater than 50% probability but until they transpire, it ECB will save its ammunition. There is a “Green New Deal” plan under consideration in the EU, and candidate Biden’s platform includes a meaningful effort to renovate commercial buildings to be more energy-efficient. According to the rates markets, ECB dated Eonias are pricing in a 10bp rate cut in 2021.