Daily Close | Forex, Metals, Oil, Agriculture September 22, 2020



Ideas are that most of the Cotton crops in the region escaped any major damage that the storm could have brought. US Cotton demand depends largely on exports so the higher US Dollar was negative for US Cotton futures. General Comments: Cotton closed a little lower on the stronger US Dollar.


For the sake of simplicity of expression in a world dominated by dollar thinking, we’ll say that the price of silver dropped around 7.5% on Monday. Conventional monetary thinkers believe that the dollar can be measured either in terms of the euro, pound, yuan, etc. It also suggests that we should see gradual Singapore dollar appreciation over the long term. General Comments: FCOJ was lower once again on the higher US Dollar and the good growing conditions seen in the state so far this year.
On a percentage basis, the Australian dollar was the biggest loser but the milestone in euro was more significant. Read the full blog post here… * * * Full Paper below: On Monday, the dollar rose from 1.16 grams silver to 1.26g. Yet it’s fashionable to sagely nod that “the dollar went up” on a day when the peripheral currencies fell. However, the firm’s role as the US Navy’s sole supplier of multi-billion dollar aircraft carriers supports long-term prospects.
Despite the rhetoric, I see little to no evidence for the dollar’s demise. The dollar rallied, and gold and silver were off. This is relevant to both global equities as well as the US Dollar and, in-turn, USD/CAD. There has been much talk about the US dollar’s demise. A rise in the dollar from 1.163 to 1.257 is a gain of 8.1%. Meanwhile, 18,000 of the $41 dollar puts were sold for $3.40. With the second virus wave intensifying in Europe and ECB President Lagarde shifting her stance on the euro’s appreciation, losses were inevitable.
If manufacturing and service sector activity slows in the month of September, it could be the nail in the coffin for the euro. Yet every time there is a crisis, the demand for safe dollar-denominated assets is so great, the Federal Reserve has to respond with stimulus measures. Euro?… no. The other currencies are dollar-derivatives.


Trading at 6 forward P/E for this year, Galiano Gold looks cheap even if we assume that gold price may continue its correction. Currently, they expect that Galiano Gold will report earnings of $0.24 per share in 2020, a visible improvement compared to the May estimate of $0.14 per share. Source: Bloomberg Silver managed gains (but gold was modestly lower)… Oil prices managed modest gains, with WTI back around $40… There is modest support at $1875 and yesterday gold declined to that area for the second time since rising to $2089 in early August.
Galiano Gold reiterated full-year production guidance of 225,000 – 245,000 ounces at AISC of $1000 – $1100 per ounce. As gold rallied into the $2000 round number resistance area, I asked investors to prepare for a pullback to my key buy zone at $1788. It’s an important buying area for gold investors and my suggestion is to focus some of the buying on both bullion and high-quality miners. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium Analysts became more optimistic about Galiano Gold compared to the estimates we’ve seen back in May.
In my opinion, Galiano Gold shares are looking attractive once again. Source: Bloomberg Spot Gold fell back below its 50DMA… Galiano Gold had a great second quarter. This is mathematically the same as saying silver fell 7.5%.


On the other hand, I believe capex spending in the oil & gas vertical could be pressured for possibly five years, and that’s going to seriously challenge management’s capabilities. The company’s strongest brand position, market share, and margins are all in the oil & gas vertical, and particularly on the downstream side. The standalone valuation is not compelling, particularly with a long recovery timeline in oil & gas, but a buyout could still offer some upside.
Mid-Con’s current unit price (at $2.58) looks reasonable as a speculative entry point, although it realistically needs $50s oil to generate some value.
Since then, the key oil & gas market has weakened dramatically and the shares have modestly underperformed the industrial sector. The main risk is that Mid-Con could still need an additional capital infusion (such as to reduce its credit facility debt) before oil reaches the $50s again. “We estimate that the oil market remains in deficit with speculative positioning now at too low levels,” OilPrice quoted Goldman Sachs as saying to clients. This improves the chances of there being value left over for the common equity in the end, although Mid-Con probably requires $50s WTI oil for that to occur.
Elements of game theory have long plagued OPEC’s attempts to control oil prices. OPEC’s production cuts have tapered from 9.7 million barrels per day in May to 7.7 million barrels per day now. Mid-Con may want to save those higher-cost oil reserves for when it’s more confident that it can generate sustained decent margins. At mid-$50s WTI oil, Mid-Con may be worth around $100 million based on a 4.0x EV/EBITDA multiple.
This used SEC pricing of $55.69 per barrel of oil. The oil price last reached that point at the beginning of March 2020. As such, it marks the second consecutive month of cuts for barrels to Asia, World Oil reported. Supply is being met by drawdown on high refined stocks and not feeding through to crude demand with little on the horizon likely to change that anytime soon. Overproduction by some players has contributed to a failure to lift Brent Crude prices past U.S. $46 per barrel.
The investment banker sees Brent crude rising to $49 per barrel before the end of the year. Some serious errors from expectations in the API data with a surprise (but small) crude build, a huge gasoline draw and a surprise distillate draw… The kingdom is reportedly cutting its benchmark Arab Light crude more than expected.

United States

The country outsources its monetary policy to the U.S. so should be attractive to investors looking to buy stocks as a way of benefitting from easy Fed policy. To test my hypothesis that the job market has a significant impact on Paycom’s revenue growth, I ran correlations between the company’s revenue and the US employment numbers. Without the Fed’s help, corporations may have been forced to raise new debt at exorbitant rates, potentially digging themselves into a bigger hole.
“The Wall Street firm highlighted a number of stocks as prime beneficiaries of rapid developments toward a booming contactless economy. China is the largest car market in the world buying about 25 million units a year (vs. 17 m in the US). Hence, the US’ demand for these vessels is going to remain valuable for HII, as it’s been the driver for Newport News Shipbuilding’s impressive CAGR of 8.2% since 2016. The economy grew at a steady pace during President Trump’s first few years in office.
So, while Trump is still nearly equal parts shit-lord and shit-bag, to turn a phrase, it’s becoming clear that he does understand to global totalitarian government.
The average of the profitable companies is nearly 200x, which is more nearly 10x higher than the S&P 500 (25x) and NASDAQ-100 (31x) currently. You wouldn’t know it reading the mainstream press, but in the past two months there has been a remarkable improvement in the covid pandemic in the US. Watch the view The Exchange: Inflation nation The Fed s new rate-setting philosophy is a game-changer, and hawks have become an endangered species in D.C.
If jobs continue to grow, then it could be enough for President Trump to convince voters to stay the course. President Trump and former President Obama trumpeted low unemployment as a sign of a strong economy. Since I don’t see Putin any more welcoming of a globally-powered UN than Trump this is the issue where they can, finally come to an agreement. President Trump’s Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows, said in July that he expects further indictments and jail time to come out of Durham’s probe.
The Wall Street Journal this month reported the Federal Trade Commission is now gearing up to possibly file an antitrust lawsuit against Facebook before the end of 2020. The complete data series behind today’s Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here. He has been quoted in a variety of financial news publications, such as CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post. Trump has embroiled himself in a chaotic mess of interlinked skirmishes with all the major players of the world.
Moreover, aircraft carriers seem to be a growing centerpiece to the US Navy.


But the White House still wants to push out Chinese tech, echoing Beijing bans of American internet firms.


Source: retaildetail.eu Total revenues fell by 19% to £700 million while gross margins were pushed down 1.5 basis pts to 53.6%.