Agriculture
A “rising tide floats all boats” so continued China buying of US corn & beans will spillover to wht! In 1975, Bill began working at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as an Agricultural Specialist – trading corn, beans, wheat, cattle & hogs. Winter Wheat is 20% planted (avg-20) & Spring Wht is 96% harvested!
Currencies
For example, when the dollar has fallen by around the amount we’ve currently seen on a year-over-year basis, gold tends to rally by around 8% over the next year. While up $300 million in dollar terms, the dilution will make that earnings per share could fall to $8.86 per share. Lower rates have put pressure on the U.S. dollar that has made dollar-denominated materials cheap for foreign investors, raising demand for products that these companies sell. For example, the dollar has been very volatile this year with a strong rally during the March timeframe followed by a consistent selloff.
Additionally, the dollar has shown some strength in the latest trading sessions on a safe haven demand amid market turmoil. With the DJI down over 500 points, crude oil off $2.00 & the dollar up sharply, and harvest already 8% complete, the mkt finally succumbed to its overbought condition! Source: Bloomberg Dollar strength triggered selling in Precious metals – which also were hit with liquidation purges.
The dollar traded higher against all of the major currencies except for sterling. Over the same time frame that net worth grew more than 10,000%, the value of the 1950 dollar shrank to about $0.09. Taylor’s family has received a $12 million dollar settlement in a wrongful death lawsuit, however . The doves were out in droves today but the dollar was unfazed as the greenback tracks the rise in Treasury yields. The dollar took its cue from Fed speak.
At present, the dollar is sitting on a year-over-year decline of about 1.4%. The Swiss franc could also depreciate against the euro as EUR/CHF trades at historically low levels, which has been weighing on Swiss inflation in the past cycle. Using a dollar-cost averaging strategy will help investors build a position in CNDT during this time of high volatility. We remain cautious in the near term and favor the USD among the G10 space; the British pound is the vulnerable currency in this environment.
We therefore favour U.S. inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, over their UK and euro-area counterparts.
Additionally, the dollar has shown some strength in the latest trading sessions on a safe haven demand amid market turmoil. With the DJI down over 500 points, crude oil off $2.00 & the dollar up sharply, and harvest already 8% complete, the mkt finally succumbed to its overbought condition! Source: Bloomberg Dollar strength triggered selling in Precious metals – which also were hit with liquidation purges.
The dollar traded higher against all of the major currencies except for sterling. Over the same time frame that net worth grew more than 10,000%, the value of the 1950 dollar shrank to about $0.09. Taylor’s family has received a $12 million dollar settlement in a wrongful death lawsuit, however . The doves were out in droves today but the dollar was unfazed as the greenback tracks the rise in Treasury yields. The dollar took its cue from Fed speak.
At present, the dollar is sitting on a year-over-year decline of about 1.4%. The Swiss franc could also depreciate against the euro as EUR/CHF trades at historically low levels, which has been weighing on Swiss inflation in the past cycle. Using a dollar-cost averaging strategy will help investors build a position in CNDT during this time of high volatility. We remain cautious in the near term and favor the USD among the G10 space; the British pound is the vulnerable currency in this environment.
We therefore favour U.S. inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, over their UK and euro-area counterparts.
Metals
The global volatility in markets has led to investors parking capital in a variety of gold funds and products which have elevated the price of gold. Investors looking to “buy low” can use these declines as a new buying opportunity to build exposure to gold mining companies with stable growth trends in recent earnings reports. The main reason why I believe that selling gold now is a bad move is this: gold has a strong history of momentum. As we’ll discuss in the next section, I believe that there’s a strong possibility that gold will rally by 10-20% over the next year.
As you can see, a few different fundamental gauges are suggesting that gold is likely going to rally over the next year. Gold is likely going to rally over the next year due to a few major fundamental indicators. Historically speaking, when gold has historically rallied by this much, on average it tends to continue rallying an additional 20% over the next year. Historically speaking, when the market sees rallies of this magnitude, gold tends to rise by 12-14% over the next year.
Source: Barrick Gold Additionally, Barrick saw excellent copper production during the second quarter period based on excellent quarterly results from the Lumwana copper mine located in Zambia.
Barrick’s businesses benefited from a rise in gold prices and this is a truth that could quite possibly continue for the next several quarters. This transition is often marked by greater uncertainty in markets which leads to investors parking capital in instruments which are perceived as safe destinations – like gold. In all of this recent selling pressure, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF has fallen through its 50-day moving average and forced a test of prior lows below $40.
Safe haven assets such as gold and other precious metals have posted remarkable performances, driven by the market’s demand for secure assets. This methodology of selling the upside is exactly why GLDI has underperformed GLD during this strong year for gold. There’s an interesting tendency at work in the market in which a flat S&P 500 tends to see gold rally in the future.
Newmont’s gold production for the period came in at 1.3 million attributable ounces and the firm reported all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,097 per ounce. An additional factor which is suggestive of higher gold prices is the recent change in the S&P 500. For example, over the past year, we have seen gold rally by around 25%. So from a performance standpoint, it’s important to note that when gold rallies, GLDI will almost certainly lag the trend and deliver only a fraction of the outright rally.
If you’re looking for dividends versus capital appreciation, then GLDI is a strong instrument for trading gold.
As you can see, a few different fundamental gauges are suggesting that gold is likely going to rally over the next year. Gold is likely going to rally over the next year due to a few major fundamental indicators. Historically speaking, when gold has historically rallied by this much, on average it tends to continue rallying an additional 20% over the next year. Historically speaking, when the market sees rallies of this magnitude, gold tends to rise by 12-14% over the next year.
Source: Barrick Gold Additionally, Barrick saw excellent copper production during the second quarter period based on excellent quarterly results from the Lumwana copper mine located in Zambia.
Barrick’s businesses benefited from a rise in gold prices and this is a truth that could quite possibly continue for the next several quarters. This transition is often marked by greater uncertainty in markets which leads to investors parking capital in instruments which are perceived as safe destinations – like gold. In all of this recent selling pressure, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF has fallen through its 50-day moving average and forced a test of prior lows below $40.
Safe haven assets such as gold and other precious metals have posted remarkable performances, driven by the market’s demand for secure assets. This methodology of selling the upside is exactly why GLDI has underperformed GLD during this strong year for gold. There’s an interesting tendency at work in the market in which a flat S&P 500 tends to see gold rally in the future.
Newmont’s gold production for the period came in at 1.3 million attributable ounces and the firm reported all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1,097 per ounce. An additional factor which is suggestive of higher gold prices is the recent change in the S&P 500. For example, over the past year, we have seen gold rally by around 25%. So from a performance standpoint, it’s important to note that when gold rallies, GLDI will almost certainly lag the trend and deliver only a fraction of the outright rally.
If you’re looking for dividends versus capital appreciation, then GLDI is a strong instrument for trading gold.
Oil
At HFI Research Natural Gas, we give you guidance on natural gas fundamentals, weather, and set-ups to help you navigate the dangerous natural gas market. For readers investing or trading natural gas or natural gas equities, don’t be blinded by the incoming moves. While BOIL provides strong returns during upwards movements in natural gas, it is moderately exposed to roll yield losses. The underlying fundamental story during this time period was that natural gas production outpaced supply for several months straight which resulted in prices falling.
This said, I believe that it is still a good time to hold BOIL based on natural gas market fundamentals. At the current balance and assuming neutral weather, this would put the natural gas market deficit at -5 to -5.5 Bcf/d. This has me bullish natural gas through 2021 and I believe that BOIL is going to see strong returns as a result. This action has essentially elevated BOIL to be the primary bullish leveraged bet on natural gas for aggressive investors.
Going forward, I believe the clear play at this time is to be long natural gas.
The reason why it’s critical to grasp and monitor is that natural gas futures are priced above the spot market in about 85% of all days. BOIL’s methodology has it holding and rolling the second month natural gas futures contract on the sixth business day of the month. This will be profoundly bullish for many natural gas producers, so the trade is to go long NG producers. In natural gas markets, there’s a key multi-year pattern in fundamentals which capture the cyclicality of the industry.
Natural gas markets are cyclical which means that it goes through cycles of boom and bust. This pattern I’m referring to is the year-over-year change in natural gas inventories. The natural gas deficit currently is around ~2 Bcf/d. In the first, oil production is likely to fall because of the collapse of some of the governments of oil exporters. Keep in mind that’s also not even assuming that production falls more in Q1 or LNG exports move past ~10 Bcf/d. The forward projection uses ~87.5 Bcf/d for Lower 48 production and ~7 Bcf/d for LNG exports.
This said, I believe that it is still a good time to hold BOIL based on natural gas market fundamentals. At the current balance and assuming neutral weather, this would put the natural gas market deficit at -5 to -5.5 Bcf/d. This has me bullish natural gas through 2021 and I believe that BOIL is going to see strong returns as a result. This action has essentially elevated BOIL to be the primary bullish leveraged bet on natural gas for aggressive investors.
Going forward, I believe the clear play at this time is to be long natural gas.
The reason why it’s critical to grasp and monitor is that natural gas futures are priced above the spot market in about 85% of all days. BOIL’s methodology has it holding and rolling the second month natural gas futures contract on the sixth business day of the month. This will be profoundly bullish for many natural gas producers, so the trade is to go long NG producers. In natural gas markets, there’s a key multi-year pattern in fundamentals which capture the cyclicality of the industry.
Natural gas markets are cyclical which means that it goes through cycles of boom and bust. This pattern I’m referring to is the year-over-year change in natural gas inventories. The natural gas deficit currently is around ~2 Bcf/d. In the first, oil production is likely to fall because of the collapse of some of the governments of oil exporters. Keep in mind that’s also not even assuming that production falls more in Q1 or LNG exports move past ~10 Bcf/d. The forward projection uses ~87.5 Bcf/d for Lower 48 production and ~7 Bcf/d for LNG exports.
United States
It clearly looks like the US is running out of ‘stimulus’, which could result in higher uncertainty and price volatility in the near term. Despite the economic slump, markets are expected to be buoyant because the Fed has pledged to keep interest rates near zero until 2023. The injunction, filed Wednesday afternoon, comes after a California court shut down Trump’s attempt to ban Tencent’s WeChat just a few days ago. Rosengren fears a second wave and says he’s less optimistic than other Fed forecasters as he believes “we’d be lucky” to get 2% inflation in the next 3 years.
Instead, we suspect a smaller increase, roughly 10bp or so (similar in magnitude to that seen in the month following Trump’s election in 2016). Source: Bloomberg The S&P 500 is almost back to unch YTD and Nasdaq is back at almost 2-month lows… Clarida expects the Fed to keep rates low for longer at least until inflation hits 2% and policy should aim for a moderate overshoot.
Markets continue to be volatile ahead of the US elections with the S&P 500 retracing by 10 percent from peak to trough in recent weeks. Despite a clear domestic catalyst or heightened exposure to technology like that of the Nasdaq 100, the DAX 30 suffered a significant technical break. The Trump Administration set a final deadline of Nov. 12 for the deal between ByteDance, Oracle and Wal-Mart to spin off TikTok into a standalone company. Data as of September 20th, 2020 As a shareholder, your interest will be aligned with one of the most prominent investors on Wall Street.
The strong performance came on the back of Fed’s super-dovish view. Developers also use U’s analytics to reduce customer churn and garner more revenue. The latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth that is 97% above the 2009 trough. less Traders work during the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 19, 2020 at Wall Street in New York City. Eltek Ltd. (Nasdaq: ELTK) is a global supplier and manufacturer of sophisticated and highly advanced Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs) based in Petah Tikva, Israel.
Wall Street analysts’ FY 2020 EPS estimates for CNDT is $0.41 per share.
He has been quoted in a variety of financial news publications, such as CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post. : You already know about Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has now spent a few days below the 50-day moving average.
Instead, we suspect a smaller increase, roughly 10bp or so (similar in magnitude to that seen in the month following Trump’s election in 2016). Source: Bloomberg The S&P 500 is almost back to unch YTD and Nasdaq is back at almost 2-month lows… Clarida expects the Fed to keep rates low for longer at least until inflation hits 2% and policy should aim for a moderate overshoot.
Markets continue to be volatile ahead of the US elections with the S&P 500 retracing by 10 percent from peak to trough in recent weeks. Despite a clear domestic catalyst or heightened exposure to technology like that of the Nasdaq 100, the DAX 30 suffered a significant technical break. The Trump Administration set a final deadline of Nov. 12 for the deal between ByteDance, Oracle and Wal-Mart to spin off TikTok into a standalone company. Data as of September 20th, 2020 As a shareholder, your interest will be aligned with one of the most prominent investors on Wall Street.
The strong performance came on the back of Fed’s super-dovish view. Developers also use U’s analytics to reduce customer churn and garner more revenue. The latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth that is 97% above the 2009 trough. less Traders work during the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 19, 2020 at Wall Street in New York City. Eltek Ltd. (Nasdaq: ELTK) is a global supplier and manufacturer of sophisticated and highly advanced Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs) based in Petah Tikva, Israel.
Wall Street analysts’ FY 2020 EPS estimates for CNDT is $0.41 per share.
He has been quoted in a variety of financial news publications, such as CNBC, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post. : You already know about Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has now spent a few days below the 50-day moving average.
China
Surprisingly, one central bank that has not been increasing the size of its balance sheet is the PBoC, whose assets have remained steady at around CNY 36.5tr ($5.4tr).
Europe
Looking ahead, money growth will likely remain elevated over the coming quarters, as the ECB and the BoE continue their asset-purchase programmes. According to ECB member Mersch, the recovery path might be a bit closer to mild scenario. The firm sells avocados in over 25 countries including the U.S., Canada, China and EU countries.
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